Opinion Poll by Ipsos for TVP Info, 14–16 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.9% 27.0–30.9% 26.5–31.5% 26.0–31.9% 25.1–32.9%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.3% 26.5–30.3% 25.9–30.9% 25.5–31.4% 24.6–32.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 10.9% 9.6–12.3% 9.3–12.7% 9.0–13.1% 8.5–13.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–10.0% 5.9–10.6%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.6% 4.7–6.7% 4.4–7.0% 4.2–7.3% 3.9–7.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.2% 3.1–6.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.0% 2.9–6.5%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 16–20 16–21 15–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–20 16–21 16–21 16–22
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 9% 98%  
17 48% 89% Median
18 30% 41%  
19 7% 12%  
20 2% 5%  
21 1.4% 3%  
22 1.2% 1.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 14% 99.9%  
17 10% 85%  
18 26% 75% Median
19 37% 49%  
20 7% 12%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 19% 97%  
7 58% 78% Median
8 18% 20%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 17% 99.4%  
5 48% 83% Median
6 35% 35%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 72% 87% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0.1% 21%  
3 19% 21%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0.1% 21%  
3 20% 21%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 88% 88% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 19% 97%  
7 58% 78% Median
8 18% 20%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 17% 99.4%  
5 48% 83% Median
6 35% 35%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0.1% 21%  
3 20% 21%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations