Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 7 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.1% 29.2–33.2% 28.7–33.7% 28.2–34.2% 27.3–35.2%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.2% 28.3–32.2% 27.7–32.7% 27.3–33.2% 26.4–34.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–11.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–11.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.8% 2.8–6.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.4–5.2% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.7% 2.7–6.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–20 17–21 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.4%  
18 37% 95%  
19 40% 58% Median
20 15% 18%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.5% 100%  
15 6% 99.4%  
16 28% 93%  
17 41% 65% Median
18 20% 25%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 62% 80% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.5% 100%  
4 42% 98.5%  
5 51% 56% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 63% 92% Median
4 29% 30%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 19%  
2 2% 19%  
3 18% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 74% 97% Median
3 23% 23%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 86% 93% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.5% 100%  
4 42% 98.5%  
5 51% 56% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 63% 92% Median
4 29% 30%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 19%  
2 2% 19%  
3 18% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations