Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 7 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.1% 29.2–33.2% 28.7–33.7% 28.2–34.2% 27.3–35.2%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.2% 28.3–32.2% 27.7–32.7% 27.3–33.2% 26.4–34.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–11.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–8.0% 5.0–8.3% 4.6–8.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.8% 2.8–6.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.4–5.2% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.7% 2.7–6.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–20 16–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 15–19 15–19 15–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 5% 99.7%  
17 13% 95%  
18 35% 82% Median
19 38% 47%  
20 8% 8%  
21 0.7% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.4% 100%  
15 6% 99.6%  
16 36% 94%  
17 29% 58% Median
18 13% 29%  
19 16% 16%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 68% 95% Median
5 26% 28%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 51% 99.7% Median
4 42% 48%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 39% 99.9%  
3 54% 61% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 14%  
2 4% 14%  
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 54% 99.5% Median
3 43% 46%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 89% 97% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 26% 45%  
3 19% 19%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 51% 99.7% Median
4 42% 48%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 39% 99.9%  
3 54% 61% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 14%  
2 4% 14%  
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations