Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 25 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.6% 31.8–35.6% 31.2–36.1% 30.8–36.6% 29.9–37.6%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.5% 26.4–32.0% 25.5–32.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 2–4 0–4 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 1.4% 100%  
17 12% 98.6%  
18 24% 87%  
19 31% 63% Median
20 29% 32%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 3% 100%  
16 9% 97%  
17 23% 88%  
18 27% 66% Median
19 36% 39%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 58% 90% Median
6 29% 32%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 39% 99.5%  
4 56% 60% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 4% 96%  
3 68% 92% Median
4 24% 24%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 2% 8%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 14% 99.9%  
2 75% 85% Median
3 10% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 41% 99.9%  
2 58% 59% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 50% 50%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 58% 90% Median
6 29% 32%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 39% 99.5%  
4 56% 60% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 2% 8%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations