Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for RMF FM, 25–27 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.7% 28.8–32.7% 28.2–33.2% 27.8–33.7% 26.9–34.7%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 29.5% 27.6–31.5% 27.1–32.0% 26.6–32.5% 25.7–33.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.3% 5.4–9.9%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.3% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.9%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–18 15–19 15–21 15–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 9% 99.3%  
18 22% 90%  
19 41% 69% Median
20 24% 27%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 20% 99.7%  
16 35% 80% Median
17 27% 45%  
18 12% 18%  
19 3% 6%  
20 0.6% 3%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 57% 98% Median
6 37% 41%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 56% 93% Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0.7% 98%  
3 73% 98% Median
4 24% 24%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 91%  
2 1.3% 91%  
3 82% 90% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 36% 55% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 47% 55% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0% 2–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 57% 98% Median
6 37% 41%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 56% 93% Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 91%  
2 1.3% 91%  
3 82% 90% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations