Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 21–23 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.5% 26.7–30.5% 26.2–31.1% 25.7–31.6% 24.8–32.5%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 22.4% 20.7–24.3% 20.3–24.8% 19.9–25.3% 19.1–26.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 9.2% 8.0–10.5% 7.7–10.9% 7.5–11.2% 6.9–11.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5% 7.1–10.8% 6.7–11.5%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–9.0% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.7–10.3%
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.3% 5.8–8.6% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.5%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 16–19 15–19 15–19 15–20
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–15
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 7% 100%  
16 34% 93%  
17 18% 59% Median
18 24% 41%  
19 14% 17%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 8% 99.8%  
12 17% 92%  
13 57% 75% Median
14 14% 19%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 13% 99.9%  
5 57% 87% Median
6 29% 30%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 12% 99.9%  
5 65% 87% Median
6 19% 23%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 43% 90% Median
5 25% 47%  
6 22% 22%  
7 0% 0%  

Rozwój Plus (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rozwój Plus (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 24% 99.3%  
4 58% 75% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 48% 99.2%  
4 46% 52% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0.8% 18%  
3 17% 17%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0.2% 0.6%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 12% 99.9%  
5 65% 87% Median
6 19% 23%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 48% 99.2%  
4 46% 52% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0.8% 18%  
3 17% 17%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations