Opinion Poll by Research Partner, 18–21 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.2% 29.2–33.2% 28.7–33.7% 28.2–34.2% 27.3–35.2%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 21.6% 19.9–23.4% 19.5–23.9% 19.1–24.4% 18.3–25.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 9.9% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.1–12.0% 7.6–12.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–9.0% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.7–10.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.3–9.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.2–6.7% 4.0–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.2–6.9%
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.2% 3.1–6.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 13 12–14 12–16 11–16 11–16
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 20% 99.3%  
19 31% 79% Median
20 34% 48%  
21 7% 14%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.5% 0.8%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 22% 97%  
13 43% 76% Median
14 22% 32%  
15 4% 10%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 37% 98.8%  
6 50% 62% Median
7 11% 12%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 58% 96% Median
5 35% 37%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 14% 100%  
4 41% 86% Median
5 43% 45%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 64% 91% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 35%  
2 0% 35%  
3 33% 35%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Rozwój Plus (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rozwój Plus (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 53% 54% Median
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 14% 100%  
4 41% 86% Median
5 43% 45%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 64% 91% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 35%  
2 0% 35%  
3 33% 35%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations