Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster, 19–21 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.1% | 30.3–34.1% | 29.8–34.6% | 29.3–35.1% | 28.5–36.0% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.5–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.9–25.6% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.9–10.2% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Rozwój Plus (ECR) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.8% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Rozwój Plus (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 49% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 20 | 13% | 45% | |
| 21 | 25% | 32% | |
| 22 | 4% | 7% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 21% | 98% | |
| 13 | 66% | 77% | Median |
| 14 | 8% | 11% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 33% | 96% | |
| 5 | 62% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 40% | 98% | |
| 5 | 56% | 58% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Rozwój Plus (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rozwój Plus (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 79% | |
| 3 | 73% | 79% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 86% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 3 | 81% | 84% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 29% | 31% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 86% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 3 | 81% | 84% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 29% | 31% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Instytut Badań Pollster
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–21 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1014
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.50%