Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 16–21 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 37.6% | 42.9% | 41.0–44.9% | 40.4–45.5% | 39.9–46.0% | 39.0–46.9% |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 31.7% | 30.8% | 29.0–32.7% | 28.5–33.2% | 28.0–33.7% | 27.2–34.6% |
| Lewica | 11.7% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.8% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.4–15.6% | 10.9–16.3% |
| Koalicja Polska | 13.9% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.4–10.8% |
| Konfederacja | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 222 | 213–236 | 211–239 | 208–242 | 203–247 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 152 | 143–161 | 140–165 | 136–167 | 129–172 |
| Lewica | 0 | 56 | 46–65 | 45–66 | 44–68 | 41–71 |
| Koalicja Polska | 58 | 28 | 21–38 | 17–40 | 15–42 | 12–44 |
| Konfederacja | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–9 |
Zjednoczona Prawica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 210 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 211 | 2% | 95% | |
| 212 | 2% | 93% | |
| 213 | 3% | 91% | |
| 214 | 4% | 88% | |
| 215 | 4% | 84% | |
| 216 | 4% | 80% | |
| 217 | 5% | 76% | |
| 218 | 5% | 71% | |
| 219 | 5% | 66% | |
| 220 | 4% | 62% | |
| 221 | 5% | 57% | |
| 222 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 223 | 4% | 48% | |
| 224 | 3% | 44% | |
| 225 | 5% | 40% | |
| 226 | 5% | 36% | |
| 227 | 3% | 31% | |
| 228 | 4% | 29% | |
| 229 | 2% | 25% | |
| 230 | 2% | 22% | |
| 231 | 2% | 20% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 18% | |
| 233 | 2% | 16% | |
| 234 | 2% | 14% | |
| 235 | 2% | 12% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 10% | |
| 237 | 2% | 8% | |
| 238 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 239 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 240 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 241 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 142 | 2% | 93% | |
| 143 | 2% | 91% | |
| 144 | 2% | 89% | |
| 145 | 3% | 87% | |
| 146 | 3% | 84% | |
| 147 | 5% | 81% | |
| 148 | 5% | 76% | |
| 149 | 7% | 71% | |
| 150 | 7% | 64% | |
| 151 | 6% | 57% | |
| 152 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 153 | 5% | 44% | |
| 154 | 6% | 39% | |
| 155 | 5% | 33% | |
| 156 | 5% | 28% | |
| 157 | 4% | 23% | |
| 158 | 2% | 19% | |
| 159 | 3% | 17% | |
| 160 | 2% | 14% | |
| 161 | 2% | 12% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 164 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 166 | 1.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 95% | |
| 46 | 3% | 93% | |
| 47 | 5% | 90% | |
| 48 | 3% | 85% | |
| 49 | 5% | 82% | |
| 50 | 2% | 78% | |
| 51 | 2% | 76% | |
| 52 | 5% | 73% | |
| 53 | 5% | 68% | |
| 54 | 6% | 62% | |
| 55 | 6% | 57% | |
| 56 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 57 | 6% | 43% | |
| 58 | 4% | 37% | |
| 59 | 4% | 33% | |
| 60 | 4% | 29% | |
| 61 | 4% | 25% | |
| 62 | 3% | 21% | |
| 63 | 4% | 18% | |
| 64 | 4% | 14% | |
| 65 | 4% | 10% | |
| 66 | 2% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Polska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 19 | 2% | 94% | |
| 20 | 2% | 92% | |
| 21 | 3% | 90% | |
| 22 | 3% | 87% | |
| 23 | 5% | 85% | |
| 24 | 4% | 80% | |
| 25 | 4% | 76% | |
| 26 | 10% | 71% | |
| 27 | 6% | 62% | |
| 28 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 4% | 49% | |
| 30 | 6% | 45% | |
| 31 | 5% | 39% | |
| 32 | 6% | 34% | |
| 33 | 5% | 28% | |
| 34 | 5% | 23% | |
| 35 | 3% | 19% | |
| 36 | 3% | 15% | |
| 37 | 2% | 12% | |
| 38 | 2% | 10% | |
| 39 | 2% | 8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 6% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Konfederacja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 23% | |
| 2 | 10% | 23% | |
| 3 | 5% | 13% | |
| 4 | 2% | 8% | |
| 5 | 2% | 6% | |
| 6 | 2% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska | 224 | 237 | 75% | 224–246 | 220–249 | 218–251 | 212–257 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 222 | 20% | 213–236 | 211–239 | 208–242 | 203–247 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica | 166 | 208 | 0.2% | 196–217 | 193–220 | 190–222 | 184–228 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska | 224 | 181 | 0% | 169–192 | 165–195 | 162–198 | 156–202 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 152 | 0% | 143–161 | 140–165 | 136–167 | 129–172 |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 215 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 216 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 217 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 218 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 219 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 220 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 221 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 222 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 223 | 2% | 92% | |
| 224 | 2% | 90% | Last Result |
| 225 | 2% | 89% | |
| 226 | 2% | 87% | |
| 227 | 2% | 84% | |
| 228 | 2% | 82% | |
| 229 | 2% | 80% | |
| 230 | 3% | 78% | |
| 231 | 3% | 75% | Majority |
| 232 | 4% | 73% | |
| 233 | 3% | 68% | |
| 234 | 5% | 65% | |
| 235 | 4% | 60% | |
| 236 | 3% | 56% | Median |
| 237 | 4% | 53% | |
| 238 | 5% | 48% | |
| 239 | 5% | 44% | |
| 240 | 4% | 39% | |
| 241 | 5% | 35% | |
| 242 | 5% | 30% | |
| 243 | 5% | 25% | |
| 244 | 4% | 20% | |
| 245 | 3% | 17% | |
| 246 | 4% | 13% | |
| 247 | 3% | 10% | |
| 248 | 2% | 7% | |
| 249 | 2% | 5% | |
| 250 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 251 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 252 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 253 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 254 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 255 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 210 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 211 | 2% | 95% | |
| 212 | 2% | 93% | |
| 213 | 3% | 91% | |
| 214 | 4% | 88% | |
| 215 | 4% | 84% | |
| 216 | 4% | 80% | |
| 217 | 5% | 76% | |
| 218 | 5% | 71% | |
| 219 | 5% | 66% | |
| 220 | 4% | 62% | |
| 221 | 5% | 57% | |
| 222 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 223 | 4% | 48% | |
| 224 | 3% | 44% | |
| 225 | 5% | 40% | |
| 226 | 5% | 36% | |
| 227 | 3% | 31% | |
| 228 | 4% | 29% | |
| 229 | 2% | 25% | |
| 230 | 2% | 22% | |
| 231 | 2% | 20% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 18% | |
| 233 | 2% | 16% | |
| 234 | 2% | 14% | |
| 235 | 2% | 12% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 10% | |
| 237 | 2% | 8% | |
| 238 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 239 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 240 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 241 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 192 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 194 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 195 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 196 | 2% | 92% | |
| 197 | 2% | 90% | |
| 198 | 2% | 88% | |
| 199 | 3% | 86% | |
| 200 | 4% | 84% | |
| 201 | 3% | 80% | |
| 202 | 2% | 77% | |
| 203 | 4% | 75% | |
| 204 | 5% | 71% | |
| 205 | 4% | 66% | |
| 206 | 4% | 62% | |
| 207 | 5% | 58% | |
| 208 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 209 | 5% | 46% | |
| 210 | 5% | 42% | |
| 211 | 7% | 36% | |
| 212 | 3% | 30% | |
| 213 | 4% | 26% | |
| 214 | 4% | 22% | |
| 215 | 3% | 18% | |
| 216 | 4% | 16% | |
| 217 | 3% | 12% | |
| 218 | 2% | 9% | |
| 219 | 2% | 7% | |
| 220 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 221 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 222 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 223 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 166 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 167 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 170 | 2% | 90% | |
| 171 | 2% | 88% | |
| 172 | 3% | 86% | |
| 173 | 3% | 83% | |
| 174 | 4% | 81% | |
| 175 | 5% | 77% | |
| 176 | 4% | 73% | |
| 177 | 3% | 69% | |
| 178 | 5% | 66% | |
| 179 | 5% | 61% | |
| 180 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 181 | 5% | 50% | |
| 182 | 4% | 45% | |
| 183 | 4% | 41% | |
| 184 | 5% | 37% | |
| 185 | 4% | 32% | |
| 186 | 4% | 28% | |
| 187 | 2% | 24% | |
| 188 | 3% | 22% | |
| 189 | 3% | 19% | |
| 190 | 3% | 16% | |
| 191 | 2% | 13% | |
| 192 | 2% | 11% | |
| 193 | 2% | 9% | |
| 194 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 195 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Koalicja Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 142 | 2% | 93% | |
| 143 | 2% | 91% | |
| 144 | 2% | 89% | |
| 145 | 3% | 87% | |
| 146 | 3% | 84% | |
| 147 | 5% | 81% | |
| 148 | 5% | 76% | |
| 149 | 7% | 71% | |
| 150 | 7% | 64% | |
| 151 | 6% | 57% | |
| 152 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 153 | 5% | 44% | |
| 154 | 6% | 39% | |
| 155 | 5% | 33% | |
| 156 | 5% | 28% | |
| 157 | 4% | 23% | |
| 158 | 2% | 19% | |
| 159 | 3% | 17% | |
| 160 | 2% | 14% | |
| 161 | 2% | 12% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 164 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 166 | 1.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–21 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1030
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.46%