Koalicja Polska
Voting Intentions
Last result: 13.9% (General Election of 25 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.6% | 4.9–8.0% | 4.0–8.5% | 3.6–8.9% | 3.1–9.6% |
| 10–11 October 2019 | IBSP | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.9–8.0% | 4.5–8.5% |
| 11 October 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.3–8.0% |
| 4–10 October 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
6.1% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.4–8.9% |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
6.8% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.3–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 3–10 October 2019 | CBOS | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 9–10 October 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP |
7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 9 October 2019 | IBRiS Radio ZET |
6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.8–8.3% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.2–9.1% |
| 8 October 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
6.2% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.1–7.5% | 4.9–7.8% | 4.5–8.3% |
| 1–5 October 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta.pl and TOK FM |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 4–5 October 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.6–6.9% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.1–7.7% |
| 3–4 October 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.0–8.1% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 30 September–4 October 2019 | Dobra Opinia PPG |
6.5% | 6.2–6.9% | 6.1–7.0% | 6.0–7.1% | 5.8–7.3% |
| 2–3 October 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.3–8.0% |
| 27 September–2 October 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 1–2 October 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
7.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.2–9.4% | 5.8–9.9% |
| 2 October 2019 | IBRiS Radio ZET |
5.8% | 5.0–6.8% | 4.8–7.1% | 4.6–7.4% | 4.2–7.9% |
| 25–26 September 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 20–25 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
6.8% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.4–8.6% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 24–25 September 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.2% |
| 23–25 September 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 20–21 September 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.4–8.1% |
| 17–19 September 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| 12–19 September 2019 | CBOS | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 13–18 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 13–17 September 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 12–14 September 2019 | IBSP | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 12–13 September 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.4% |
| 6–11 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.4% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.6–12.4% |
| 6–11 September 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 6–7 September 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 4–6 September 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.3–9.3% |
| 4–5 September 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 30 August–4 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
8.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.1% | 7.0–10.4% | 6.5–11.0% |
| 24 August–4 September 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
5.7% | 5.4–6.1% | 5.3–6.2% | 5.2–6.3% | 5.1–6.4% |
| 23–29 August 2019 | Dobra Opinia PPG |
6.0% | 5.7–6.4% | 5.6–6.5% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% |
| 22–29 August 2019 | CBOS | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 23–28 August 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
9.1% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.0–11.7% |
| 26–28 August 2019 | Ipsos OKO |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 26 August 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
7.2% | 6.3–8.3% | 6.0–8.6% | 5.8–8.9% | 5.4–9.4% |
| 24–26 August 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP |
5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 23–24 August 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
5.8% | 5.0–6.8% | 4.8–7.1% | 4.6–7.4% | 4.2–7.9% |
| 22 August 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 21–22 August 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.0% |
| 16–21 August 2019 | Social Changes | 8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.4–10.8% |
| 16–20 August 2019 | Ariadna | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 13 August 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 9–10 August 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
6.5% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.7% |
| 6–8 August 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
5.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–7 August 2019 | Social Changes | 9.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–7 August 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–31 July 2019 | Social Changes | 9.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 July 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 July 2019 | Social Changes | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 July 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 July 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 July 2019 | Kantar Public Radio ZET |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–15 July 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 July 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–11 July 2019 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–10 July 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–29 June 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–26 June 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–20 June 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–13 June 2019 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 June 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 May–5 June 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–29 May 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–23 May 2019 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 May 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 May 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–4 May 2019 | Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych Gazeta Bałtycka |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–30 April 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 April 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 April 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 April 2019 | Social Changes | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 March 2019 | Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych Radio ZET |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–22 March 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP1 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 March 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–14 March 2019 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–13 March 2019 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 March 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 February 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–16 February 2019 | IPSOS OKO.press |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–14 February 2019 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–13 February 2019 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 February 2019 | OPB Ariadna WP |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 February 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 February 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 January–6 February 2019 | Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych Radio ZET |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 February 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 January 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 January 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 January 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–24 January 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 January 2019 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–16 January 2019 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–16 January 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 January 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 January 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–14 December 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 December 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 November–11 December 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29 November–9 December 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 December 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–24 November 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 November 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–20 November 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–15 November 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–15 November 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13 November 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 November 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–30 October 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 October 2018 | IBRiS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 October 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–11 October 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 October 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 October 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–23 September 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 September 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–17 September 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–13 September 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–12 September 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25 August–1 September 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–23 August 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–23 August 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–19 August 2018 | IPSOS OKO.press |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11 August 2018 | Kantar Public Gazeta Prawna |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11 August 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 August 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–10 August 2018 | CBM Indicator TVP1 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 August 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 July 2018 | IBRiS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–12 July 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–11 July 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 July 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 July 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 June–5 July 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–28 June 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 June 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18 June 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–17 June 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–14 June 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–14 June 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 June 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–7 June 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–29 May 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 May 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–24 May 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 May 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–16 May 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14 May 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 May 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 May 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–29 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 April 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 April 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 April 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 April 2018 | IPSOS OKO.press |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–12 April 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 April 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–7 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 April 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 April 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–30 March 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 March 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 March 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 March 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–14 March 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–8 March 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 March 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 February 2018 | IBRiS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22 February 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 February 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–21 February 2018 | Kantar Public | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–20 February 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20 February 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–8 February 2018 | CBOS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5 February 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Koalicja Polska.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 6% | 98% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 9% | 92% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 30% | 83% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 15% | 19% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 58 seats (General Election of 25 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 16 | 0–30 | 0–35 | 0–39 | 0–45 |
| 10–11 October 2019 | IBSP | 11 | 7–22 | 5–24 | 0–26 | 0–29 |
| 11 October 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
15 | 7–25 | 0–26 | 0–28 | 0–33 |
| 4–10 October 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
11 | 6–20 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–28 |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
23 | 16–29 | 13–32 | 11–34 | 10–38 |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
18 | 11–27 | 9–29 | 7–31 | 6–36 |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
17 | 9–25 | 7–27 | 6–29 | 0–34 |
| 3–10 October 2019 | CBOS | 34 | 25–42 | 23–45 | 22–46 | 17–49 |
| 9–10 October 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP |
23 | 12–29 | 11–31 | 9–33 | 6–37 |
| 9 October 2019 | IBRiS Radio ZET |
25 | 16–33 | 12–35 | 11–38 | 7–42 |
| 8 October 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
16 | 8–25 | 7–27 | 0–29 | 0–34 |
| 1–5 October 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta.pl and TOK FM |
0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| 4–5 October 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
11 | 0–21 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–28 |
| 3–4 October 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
13 | 6–23 | 6–25 | 4–27 | 0–30 |
| 30 September–4 October 2019 | Dobra Opinia PPG |
12 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 11–19 | 9–22 |
| 2–3 October 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
13 | 7–24 | 0–26 | 0–27 | 0–31 |
| 27 September–2 October 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
23 | 12–29 | 11–32 | 10–34 | 7–40 |
| 1–2 October 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
25 | 15–33 | 12–35 | 12–37 | 10–41 |
| 2 October 2019 | IBRiS Radio ZET |
12 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–26 | 0–30 |
| 25–26 September 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
8 | 0–14 | 0–17 | 0–20 | 0–25 |
| 20–25 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
17 | 10–26 | 8–27 | 7–29 | 4–34 |
| 24–25 September 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
21 | 12–28 | 11–30 | 8–32 | 7–37 |
| 23–25 September 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP |
14 | 8–24 | 0–26 | 0–28 | 0–32 |
| 20–21 September 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
13 | 7–24 | 0–25 | 0–26 | 0–30 |
| 17–19 September 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
11 | 6–19 | 0–23 | 0–24 | 0–28 |
| 12–19 September 2019 | CBOS | 37 | 27–44 | 25–45 | 23–47 | 17–50 |
| 13–18 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
16 | 9–25 | 7–27 | 6–28 | 0–34 |
| 13–17 September 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza |
0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–13 |
| 12–14 September 2019 | IBSP | 0 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–9 | 0–12 |
| 12–13 September 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
27 | 19–36 | 16–39 | 15–41 | 12–43 |
| 6–11 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
39 | 30–44 | 28–46 | 26–47 | 23–51 |
| 6–11 September 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
19 | 11–28 | 0–30 | 0–33 | 0–39 |
| 6–7 September 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
13 | 0–24 | 0–25 | 0–26 | 0–32 |
| 4–6 September 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
19 | 12–27 | 11–30 | 9–31 | 6–36 |
| 4–5 September 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
12 | 6–20 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–28 |
| 30 August–4 September 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
29 | 22–38 | 19–41 | 16–42 | 12–45 |
| 24 August–4 September 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
12 | 10–16 | 9–18 | 9–19 | 8–23 |
| 23–29 August 2019 | Dobra Opinia PPG |
12 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–16 |
| 22–29 August 2019 | CBOS | 20 | 11–27 | 9–30 | 8–32 | 6–36 |
| 23–28 August 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
34 | 26–43 | 24–45 | 22–46 | 18–49 |
| 26–28 August 2019 | Ipsos OKO |
7 | 0–12 | 0–15 | 0–18 | 0–23 |
| 26 August 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
24 | 16–33 | 12–35 | 12–37 | 9–42 |
| 24–26 August 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP |
12 | 0–22 | 0–24 | 0–26 | 0–30 |
| 23–24 August 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
12 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–27 | 0–30 |
| 22 August 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
14 | 9–24 | 0–26 | 0–27 | 0–33 |
| 21–22 August 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
18 | 11–26 | 9–28 | 8–30 | 0–35 |
| 16–21 August 2019 | Social Changes | 28 | 21–38 | 17–40 | 15–42 | 12–44 |
| 16–20 August 2019 | Ariadna | 13 | 7–25 | 0–26 | 0–27 | 0–30 |
| 13 August 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–13 |
| 9–10 August 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
20 | 12–28 | 11–30 | 9–32 | 0–37 |
| 6–8 August 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 2–7 August 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 6–7 August 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 26–31 July 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 26–27 July 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
|||||
| 19–24 July 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 18–19 July 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 12–17 July 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 12–17 July 2019 | Kantar Public Radio ZET |
|||||
| 12–15 July 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
|||||
| 12–13 July 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 4–11 July 2019 | CBOS | |||||
| 5–10 July 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 28–29 June 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
|||||
| 21–26 June 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 19–20 June 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 6–13 June 2019 | CBOS | |||||
| 7–8 June 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 31 May–5 June 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 24–29 May 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 16–23 May 2019 | CBOS | |||||
| 10–15 May 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 10–15 May 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza |
|||||
| 1–4 May 2019 | Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych Gazeta Bałtycka |
|||||
| 26–30 April 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 26–29 April 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 19–24 April 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 12–17 April 2019 | Social Changes | |||||
| 25–27 March 2019 | Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych Radio ZET |
|||||
| 20–22 March 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP1 |
|||||
| 20–21 March 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 7–14 March 2019 | CBOS | |||||
| 8–13 March 2019 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 9–10 March 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 20–21 February 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 14–16 February 2019 | IPSOS OKO.press |
|||||
| 7–14 February 2019 | CBOS | |||||
| 8–13 February 2019 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 8–11 February 2019 | OPB Ariadna WP |
|||||
| 7–8 February 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 5–7 February 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 31 January–6 February 2019 | Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych Radio ZET |
|||||
| 4–5 February 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown | |||||
| 30 January 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 26–27 January 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 25–26 January 2019 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 23–24 January 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 10–17 January 2019 | CBOS | |||||
| 11–16 January 2019 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 15–16 January 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza |
|||||
| 10–11 January 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 4 January 2019 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 13–14 December 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 12–13 December 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 30 November–11 December 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 29 November–9 December 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 7–8 December 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 23–24 November 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 20–21 November 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 19–20 November 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
|||||
| 9–15 November 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 8–15 November 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 13 November 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 8–9 November 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 29–30 October 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 26–27 October 2018 | IBRiS | |||||
| 12–17 October 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 4–11 October 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 5–6 October 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 1 October 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 22–23 September 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 20–21 September 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 14–17 September 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
|||||
| 6–13 September 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 7–12 September 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 25 August–1 September 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 22–23 August 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 16–23 August 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 17–19 August 2018 | IPSOS OKO.press |
|||||
| 11 August 2018 | Kantar Public Gazeta Prawna |
|||||
| 11 August 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 9–10 August 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 8–10 August 2018 | CBM Indicator TVP1 |
|||||
| 8–9 August 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 27 July 2018 | IBRiS | |||||
| 11–12 July 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 6–11 July 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 8–9 July 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 4–5 July 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
|||||
| 28 June–5 July 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 27–28 June 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 21–22 June 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 18 June 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
|||||
| 9–17 June 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 13–14 June 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 7–14 June 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 7–8 June 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 6–7 June 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
|||||
| 28–29 May 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
|||||
| 24–25 May 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 23–24 May 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 10–17 May 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 11–16 May 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 14 May 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 10–11 May 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
|||||
| 10–11 May 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 27–29 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
|||||
| 25–27 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
|||||
| 25–26 April 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
|||||
| 25–26 April 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 19 April 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 12–13 April 2018 | IPSOS OKO.press |
|||||
| 5–12 April 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 9–10 April 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 6–7 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
|||||
| 4–5 April 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
|||||
| 4–5 April 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 4 April 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 29–30 March 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster TVP1 |
|||||
| 26–27 March 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
|||||
| 21–22 March 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 17 March 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 9–14 March 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 1–8 March 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 1–2 March 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
|||||
| 26 February 2018 | IBRiS | |||||
| 22 February 2018 | Instytut Badań Pollster Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express |
|||||
| 21–22 February 2018 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
|||||
| 16–21 February 2018 | Kantar Public | |||||
| 19–20 February 2018 | Kantar Millward Brown TVN and TVN24 |
|||||
| 20 February 2018 | IBRiS Onet |
|||||
| 1–8 February 2018 | CBOS | |||||
| 5 February 2018 | IBRiS Rzeczpospolita |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Koalicja Polska.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 7 | 3% | 87% | |
| 8 | 2% | 84% | |
| 9 | 2% | 82% | |
| 10 | 3% | 80% | |
| 11 | 4% | 76% | |
| 12 | 9% | 72% | |
| 13 | 5% | 63% | |
| 14 | 3% | 58% | |
| 15 | 3% | 56% | |
| 16 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 4% | 48% | |
| 18 | 3% | 43% | |
| 19 | 3% | 40% | |
| 20 | 2% | 37% | |
| 21 | 3% | 35% | |
| 22 | 3% | 32% | |
| 23 | 3% | 30% | |
| 24 | 3% | 26% | |
| 25 | 4% | 23% | |
| 26 | 4% | 19% | |
| 27 | 2% | 15% | |
| 28 | 2% | 13% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |