Konfederacja

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 4.8% (General Election of 25 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 5.4% 4.2–7.8% 4.0–8.7% 3.8–9.3% 3.5–10.2%
10–11 October 2019 IBSP 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
11 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.6%
4–10 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
9–10 October 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
9–10 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.7%
9–10 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
3–10 October 2019 CBOS 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
9–10 October 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
9 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.6% 2.9–6.1%
8 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.3–5.2%
1–5 October 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta.pl and TOK FM		 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
4–5 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
3–4 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
30 September–4 October 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 4.2% 3.9–4.5% 3.8–4.6% 3.8–4.7% 3.6–4.8%
2–3 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.7–4.9% 2.4–5.3%
27 September–2 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
1–2 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.7–6.2% 3.3–6.7%
2 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.7% 3.0–6.2%
25–26 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
20–25 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
24–25 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
23–25 September 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
20–21 September 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.7% 3.0–6.2%
17–19 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
12–19 September 2019 CBOS 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
13–18 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
13–17 September 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
12–14 September 2019 IBSP 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
12–13 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
6–11 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
6–11 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5%
6–7 September 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
4–6 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.8%
4–5 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
30 August–4 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
24 August–4 September 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 4.8% 4.5–5.2% 4.4–5.2% 4.4–5.3% 4.2–5.5%
23–29 August 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 4.0% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6%
22–29 August 2019 CBOS 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.8%
23–28 August 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
26–28 August 2019 Ipsos
OKO		 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
26 August 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.6%
24–26 August 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
23–24 August 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 5.3% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
22 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
21–22 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
16–21 August 2019 Social Changes 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
16–20 August 2019 Ariadna 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
13 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
9–10 August 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.4%
6–8 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 4.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–7 August 2019 Social Changes 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–7 August 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–31 July 2019 Social Changes 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 July 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–24 July 2019 Social Changes 3.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–19 July 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 July 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 July 2019 Kantar Public
Radio ZET		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–15 July 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 July 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–11 July 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–10 July 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–29 June 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–26 June 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–20 June 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–13 June 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 June 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 May–5 June 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–29 May 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–23 May 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 May 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 May 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–4 May 2019 Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych
Gazeta Bałtycka		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 April 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 April 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–24 April 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 April 2019 Social Changes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 March 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–22 March 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 March 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–14 March 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–13 March 2019 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–10 March 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–16 February 2019 IPSOS
OKO.press		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–14 February 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–13 February 2019 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–11 February 2019 OPB Ariadna
WP		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 February 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 January–6 February 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 February 2019 Kantar Millward Brown 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–26 January 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–24 January 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–17 January 2019 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–16 January 2019 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–16 January 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–14 December 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 December 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 November–11 December 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29 November–9 December 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 December 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–24 November 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 November 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–20 November 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–15 November 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–15 November 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–9 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 October 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 October 2018 IBRiS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 October 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–11 October 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–6 October 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 October 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–23 September 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–21 September 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 September 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–13 September 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–12 September 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25 August–1 September 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–23 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–23 August 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–19 August 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 August 2018 Kantar Public
Gazeta Prawna		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 August 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–10 August 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–10 August 2018 CBM Indicator
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–9 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27 July 2018 IBRiS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–12 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–11 July 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–9 July 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28 June–5 July 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–28 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 June 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–17 June 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–14 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–14 June 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–8 June 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–7 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–29 May 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–25 May 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–24 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–17 May 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–16 May 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 May 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 May 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–29 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–26 April 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–26 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 April 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 April 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–12 April 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–10 April 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–7 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 April 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 March 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–27 March 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 March 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17 March 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–14 March 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–8 March 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 March 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 February 2018 IBRiS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 February 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 February 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–21 February 2018 Kantar Public 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–20 February 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20 February 2018 IBRiS
Onet		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–8 February 2018 CBOS 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 February 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Konfederacja.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0.6% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 23% 99.4%  
4.5–5.5% 31% 76% Last Result, Median
5.5–6.5% 22% 46%  
6.5–7.5% 12% 24%  
7.5–8.5% 6% 12%  
8.5–9.5% 4% 6%  
9.5–10.5% 1.4% 2%  
10.5–11.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 25 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 4 0–25 0–30 0–34 0–38
10–11 October 2019 IBSP 29 18–37 15–38 14–40 11–44
11 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 0 0–10 0–12 0–14 0–18
4–10 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 8 2–15 0–18 0–21 0–26
9–10 October 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 21 12–27 10–29 9–33 7–36
9–10 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0 0–5 0–7 0–9 0–13
9–10 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0 0–5 0–8 0–11 0–14
3–10 October 2019 CBOS 15 5–24 0–27 0–27 0–31
9–10 October 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 2 0–8 0–11 0–13 0–17
9 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 0 0–5 0–6 0–9 0–13
8 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 0 0 0 0 0–5
1–5 October 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta.pl and TOK FM		 3 0–10 0–12 0–15 0–20
4–5 October 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 0 0 0 0–4 0–7
3–4 October 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0 0 0 0–2 0–4
30 September–4 October 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 0 0 0 0 0
2–3 October 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 0 0 0 0 0–6
27 September–2 October 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 3 0–11 0–13 0–15 0–20
1–2 October 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0 0–6 0–7 0–9 0–13
2 October 2019 IBRiS
Radio ZET		 0 0–5 0–7 0–10 0–13
25–26 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 22 12–30 10–33 8–37 5–41
20–25 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 6 0–14 0–16 0–19 0–24
24–25 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 2 0–7 0–10 0–12 0–15
23–25 September 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 0 0–2 0–5 0–6 0–11
20–21 September 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 0 0–4 0–6 0–8 0–12
17–19 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0 0 0 0 0–3
12–19 September 2019 CBOS 0 0 0 0 0
13–18 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 20 11–28 9–31 6–33 4–37
13–17 September 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		 3 0–10 0–12 0–15 0–21
12–14 September 2019 IBSP 10 4–20 2–22 0–24 0–27
12–13 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 2 0–6 0–9 0–12 0–15
6–11 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 0 0–2 0–2 0–4 0–6
6–11 September 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 0 0 0 0 0
6–7 September 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0 0 0 0 0–6
4–6 September 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–6
4–5 September 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0 0 0 0–3 0–5
30 August–4 September 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 0 0–6 0–8 0–10 0–13
24 August–4 September 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 0 0–4 0–5 0–6 0–8
23–29 August 2019 Dobra Opinia
PPG		 0 0 0 0 0
22–29 August 2019 CBOS 0 0 0 0 0
23–28 August 2019 Social Changes
wpolityce.pl		 2 0–9 0–11 0–12 0–17
26–28 August 2019 Ipsos
OKO		 2 0–10 0–13 0–15 0–21
26 August 2019 IBRiS
Onet		 0 0–7 0–10 0–12 0–15
24–26 August 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP		 0 0 0 0 0
23–24 August 2019 IBRiS
RMF		 6 0–14 0–16 0–18 0–23
22 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 11 4–21 0–24 0–26 0–30
21–22 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		 0 0 0 0–3 0–6
16–21 August 2019 Social Changes 0 0–3 0–5 0–6 0–9
16–20 August 2019 Ariadna 0 0 0–3 0–5 0–9
13 August 2019 Kantar Public
TVN		 4 0–12 0–14 0–17 0–23
9–10 August 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		 0 0 0 0 0
6–8 August 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
2–7 August 2019 Social Changes          
6–7 August 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
26–31 July 2019 Social Changes          
26–27 July 2019 IBRiS
RMF		          
19–24 July 2019 Social Changes          
18–19 July 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
12–17 July 2019 Social Changes          
12–17 July 2019 Kantar Public
Radio ZET		          
12–15 July 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
12–13 July 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
4–11 July 2019 CBOS          
5–10 July 2019 Social Changes          
28–29 June 2019 IBRiS
RMF		          
21–26 June 2019 Social Changes          
19–20 June 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
6–13 June 2019 CBOS          
7–8 June 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
31 May–5 June 2019 Social Changes          
24–29 May 2019 Social Changes          
16–23 May 2019 CBOS          
10–15 May 2019 Social Changes          
10–15 May 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		          
1–4 May 2019 Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych
Gazeta Bałtycka		          
26–30 April 2019 Social Changes          
26–29 April 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
19–24 April 2019 Social Changes          
12–17 April 2019 Social Changes          
25–27 March 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		          
20–22 March 2019 CBM Indicator
TVP1		          
20–21 March 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
7–14 March 2019 CBOS          
8–13 March 2019 Kantar Public          
9–10 March 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
20–21 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
14–16 February 2019 IPSOS
OKO.press		          
7–14 February 2019 CBOS          
8–13 February 2019 Kantar Public          
8–11 February 2019 OPB Ariadna
WP		          
7–8 February 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
5–7 February 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
31 January–6 February 2019 Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
Radio ZET		          
4–5 February 2019 Kantar Millward Brown          
30 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
26–27 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
25–26 January 2019 IBRiS
Onet		          
23–24 January 2019 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
10–17 January 2019 CBOS          
11–16 January 2019 Kantar Public          
15–16 January 2019 Kantar Millward Brown
Gazeta Wyborcza		          
10–11 January 2019 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
4 January 2019 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
13–14 December 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
12–13 December 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
30 November–11 December 2018 Kantar Public          
29 November–9 December 2018 CBOS          
7–8 December 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
23–24 November 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
20–21 November 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
19–20 November 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
9–15 November 2018 Kantar Public          
8–15 November 2018 CBOS          
13 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
8–9 November 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
29–30 October 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
26–27 October 2018 IBRiS          
12–17 October 2018 Kantar Public          
4–11 October 2018 CBOS          
5–6 October 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
1 October 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
22–23 September 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
20–21 September 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
14–17 September 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
6–13 September 2018 CBOS          
7–12 September 2018 Kantar Public          
25 August–1 September 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
22–23 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
16–23 August 2018 CBOS          
17–19 August 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		          
11 August 2018 Kantar Public
Gazeta Prawna		          
11 August 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
9–10 August 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
8–10 August 2018 CBM Indicator
TVP1		          
8–9 August 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
27 July 2018 IBRiS          
11–12 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
6–11 July 2018 Kantar Public          
8–9 July 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
4–5 July 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
28 June–5 July 2018 CBOS          
27–28 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
21–22 June 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
18 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Super Express		          
9–17 June 2018 Kantar Public          
13–14 June 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
7–14 June 2018 CBOS          
7–8 June 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
6–7 June 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
28–29 May 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
24–25 May 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
23–24 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
10–17 May 2018 CBOS          
11–16 May 2018 Kantar Public          
14 May 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
10–11 May 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
10–11 May 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
27–29 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
25–27 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
25–26 April 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
25–26 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
19 April 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
12–13 April 2018 IPSOS
OKO.press		          
5–12 April 2018 CBOS          
9–10 April 2018 Kantar Public          
6–7 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
4–5 April 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
4–5 April 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
4 April 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
29–30 March 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
TVP1		          
26–27 March 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
21–22 March 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
17 March 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
9–14 March 2018 Kantar Public          
1–8 March 2018 CBOS          
1–2 March 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          
26 February 2018 IBRiS          
22 February 2018 Instytut Badań Pollster
Nowa TV, se.pl and Super Express		          
21–22 February 2018 Estymator
DoRzeczy.pl		          
16–21 February 2018 Kantar Public          
19–20 February 2018 Kantar Millward Brown
TVN and TVN24		          
20 February 2018 IBRiS
Onet		          
1–8 February 2018 CBOS          
5 February 2018 IBRiS
Rzeczpospolita		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Konfederacja.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 0% 62%  
2 6% 62%  
3 4% 56%  
4 3% 52% Median
5 4% 48%  
6 3% 44%  
7 2% 41%  
8 2% 39%  
9 2% 37%  
10 2% 35%  
11 2% 33%  
12 2% 30%  
13 3% 28%  
14 2% 26%  
15 1.4% 24%  
16 1.2% 23%  
17 1.0% 21%  
18 1.0% 20%  
19 1.3% 19%  
20 2% 18%  
21 2% 17%  
22 2% 15%  
23 1.0% 13%  
24 1.2% 12%  
25 2% 11%  
26 1.1% 9%  
27 1.2% 8%  
28 0.7% 7%  
29 0.7% 6%  
30 0.7% 5%  
31 0.6% 5%  
32 0.5% 4%  
33 0.6% 3%  
34 0.7% 3%  
35 0.6% 2%  
36 0.4% 1.5%  
37 0.4% 1.1%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%