Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wpolityce.pl, 23–28 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 44.6% 42.6–46.6% 42.0–47.2% 41.5–47.7% 40.6–48.7%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 30.6% 28.8–32.5% 28.3–33.0% 27.8–33.5% 27.0–34.4%
Lewica 11.7% 10.4% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.1%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 9.1% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Konfederacja 4.8% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 233 220–244 217–248 215–251 210–255
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 151 141–161 138–164 135–167 130–171
Lewica 0 38 32–45 31–47 30–49 27–54
Koalicja Polska 58 34 26–43 24–45 22–46 18–49
Konfederacja 0 2 0–9 0–11 0–12 0–17

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0.2% 99.8%  
210 0.2% 99.6%  
211 0.3% 99.4%  
212 0.3% 99.2%  
213 0.5% 98.8%  
214 0.7% 98%  
215 1.0% 98%  
216 1.2% 97%  
217 1.3% 96%  
218 1.3% 94%  
219 1.5% 93%  
220 2% 91%  
221 3% 89%  
222 3% 86%  
223 2% 84%  
224 2% 82%  
225 3% 80%  
226 3% 77%  
227 4% 74%  
228 4% 70%  
229 3% 66%  
230 3% 63%  
231 3% 60% Majority
232 5% 56%  
233 3% 52% Median
234 5% 49%  
235 5% 44% Last Result
236 4% 40%  
237 5% 36%  
238 4% 31%  
239 3% 27%  
240 3% 24%  
241 3% 21%  
242 3% 17%  
243 2% 14%  
244 2% 12%  
245 2% 10%  
246 1.5% 8%  
247 0.9% 7%  
248 1.2% 6%  
249 1.2% 5%  
250 0.6% 3%  
251 0.9% 3%  
252 0.3% 2%  
253 0.6% 2%  
254 0.3% 1.0%  
255 0.3% 0.7%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.6%  
130 0.2% 99.5%  
131 0.3% 99.4%  
132 0.4% 99.1%  
133 0.4% 98.7%  
134 0.4% 98%  
135 0.5% 98%  
136 0.7% 97%  
137 0.8% 97%  
138 1.1% 96%  
139 2% 95%  
140 2% 93%  
141 2% 91%  
142 2% 90%  
143 3% 87%  
144 4% 85%  
145 2% 80%  
146 4% 78%  
147 4% 74%  
148 5% 70%  
149 4% 65%  
150 4% 60%  
151 7% 56% Median
152 5% 48%  
153 5% 44%  
154 6% 38%  
155 5% 32%  
156 4% 27%  
157 3% 23%  
158 4% 20%  
159 3% 16%  
160 2% 13%  
161 2% 11%  
162 3% 9%  
163 1.3% 7%  
164 1.2% 6%  
165 1.3% 4%  
166 0.5% 3% Last Result
167 0.7% 3%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.5% 1.4%  
170 0.2% 0.9%  
171 0.2% 0.7%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 0.3% 99.3%  
29 0.7% 99.0%  
30 2% 98%  
31 3% 97%  
32 4% 93%  
33 6% 90%  
34 8% 84%  
35 6% 76%  
36 8% 70%  
37 6% 62%  
38 9% 56% Median
39 6% 47%  
40 3% 41%  
41 5% 38%  
42 7% 33%  
43 5% 25%  
44 6% 20%  
45 5% 14%  
46 3% 9%  
47 2% 6%  
48 0.8% 4%  
49 0.8% 3%  
50 0.3% 2%  
51 0.4% 2%  
52 0.7% 1.4%  
53 0.2% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.1% 99.8%  
17 0.2% 99.7%  
18 0.2% 99.5%  
19 0.3% 99.3%  
20 0.5% 99.0%  
21 0.5% 98.5%  
22 0.6% 98%  
23 0.9% 97%  
24 2% 97%  
25 2% 95%  
26 8% 93%  
27 5% 85%  
28 4% 80%  
29 4% 76%  
30 6% 73%  
31 6% 66%  
32 3% 60%  
33 4% 57%  
34 4% 53% Median
35 6% 48%  
36 4% 42%  
37 3% 38%  
38 3% 35%  
39 4% 31%  
40 5% 27%  
41 6% 23%  
42 5% 17%  
43 5% 11%  
44 1.2% 6%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.3% 3%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.4%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 0% 68%  
2 25% 68% Median
3 8% 44%  
4 6% 35%  
5 8% 29%  
6 5% 21%  
7 3% 16%  
8 2% 13%  
9 3% 11%  
10 2% 7%  
11 2% 6%  
12 2% 4%  
13 0.8% 2%  
14 0.3% 1.4%  
15 0.4% 1.1%  
16 0.2% 0.7%  
17 0.2% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 233 60% 220–244 217–248 215–251 210–255
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 223 25% 212–237 209–239 206–243 201–247
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 190 0% 178–201 175–204 173–207 168–211
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 185 0% 175–197 171–200 168–203 162–207
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 151 0% 141–161 138–164 135–167 130–171

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0.2% 99.8%  
210 0.2% 99.6%  
211 0.3% 99.4%  
212 0.3% 99.2%  
213 0.5% 98.8%  
214 0.7% 98%  
215 1.0% 98%  
216 1.2% 97%  
217 1.3% 96%  
218 1.3% 94%  
219 1.5% 93%  
220 2% 91%  
221 3% 89%  
222 3% 86%  
223 2% 84%  
224 2% 82%  
225 3% 80%  
226 3% 77%  
227 4% 74%  
228 4% 70%  
229 3% 66%  
230 3% 63%  
231 3% 60% Majority
232 5% 56%  
233 3% 52% Median
234 5% 49%  
235 5% 44% Last Result
236 4% 40%  
237 5% 36%  
238 4% 31%  
239 3% 27%  
240 3% 24%  
241 3% 21%  
242 3% 17%  
243 2% 14%  
244 2% 12%  
245 2% 10%  
246 1.5% 8%  
247 0.9% 7%  
248 1.2% 6%  
249 1.2% 5%  
250 0.6% 3%  
251 0.9% 3%  
252 0.3% 2%  
253 0.6% 2%  
254 0.3% 1.0%  
255 0.3% 0.7%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0.2% 99.6%  
202 0.2% 99.4%  
203 0.4% 99.2%  
204 0.4% 98.8%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.5% 98%  
207 0.9% 97%  
208 0.8% 96%  
209 1.3% 96%  
210 1.2% 94%  
211 1.3% 93%  
212 2% 92%  
213 2% 90%  
214 2% 88%  
215 3% 86%  
216 3% 82%  
217 3% 79%  
218 3% 76%  
219 2% 72%  
220 7% 70%  
221 4% 63%  
222 4% 59%  
223 5% 55% Median
224 4% 50% Last Result
225 4% 46%  
226 4% 42%  
227 2% 37%  
228 4% 35%  
229 3% 32%  
230 3% 28%  
231 3% 25% Majority
232 4% 23%  
233 3% 19%  
234 2% 16%  
235 2% 14%  
236 1.1% 12%  
237 2% 11%  
238 2% 9%  
239 2% 7%  
240 1.1% 5%  
241 0.7% 4%  
242 0.6% 3%  
243 0.7% 3%  
244 0.6% 2%  
245 0.5% 1.2%  
246 0.2% 0.7%  
247 0.2% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.3%  
249 0.1% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
167 0.2% 99.7%  
168 0.3% 99.5%  
169 0.2% 99.3%  
170 0.4% 99.1%  
171 0.7% 98.7%  
172 0.3% 98%  
173 0.6% 98%  
174 1.2% 97%  
175 1.0% 96%  
176 2% 95%  
177 2% 93%  
178 1.2% 91%  
179 1.2% 90%  
180 4% 88%  
181 2% 85%  
182 2% 83%  
183 4% 81%  
184 3% 77%  
185 4% 75%  
186 4% 70%  
187 4% 66%  
188 4% 63%  
189 6% 59% Median
190 5% 53%  
191 5% 47%  
192 5% 43%  
193 5% 38%  
194 4% 33%  
195 4% 29%  
196 3% 25%  
197 3% 21%  
198 2% 18%  
199 3% 16%  
200 2% 14%  
201 3% 12%  
202 2% 9%  
203 1.2% 7%  
204 1.1% 6%  
205 1.1% 5%  
206 0.9% 4%  
207 0.6% 3%  
208 0.4% 2%  
209 0.7% 2%  
210 0.2% 1.0%  
211 0.2% 0.7%  
212 0.1% 0.5%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0.1% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.7%  
162 0.1% 99.6%  
163 0.3% 99.5%  
164 0.3% 99.2%  
165 0.5% 98.9%  
166 0.5% 98%  
167 0.3% 98%  
168 0.6% 98%  
169 1.1% 97%  
170 0.8% 96%  
171 0.9% 95%  
172 1.1% 94%  
173 2% 93%  
174 1.2% 91%  
175 3% 90%  
176 2% 87%  
177 4% 85%  
178 2% 81%  
179 5% 79%  
180 3% 73%  
181 5% 70%  
182 3% 65%  
183 5% 62%  
184 4% 58%  
185 4% 54% Median
186 6% 50%  
187 5% 44%  
188 3% 39%  
189 3% 36%  
190 4% 34%  
191 4% 30%  
192 6% 26%  
193 2% 20%  
194 3% 18%  
195 1.4% 15%  
196 3% 14%  
197 1.4% 11%  
198 2% 9%  
199 2% 7%  
200 0.9% 6%  
201 1.2% 5%  
202 0.8% 4%  
203 0.6% 3%  
204 0.7% 2%  
205 0.3% 1.4%  
206 0.3% 1.1%  
207 0.3% 0.8%  
208 0.2% 0.5%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.6%  
130 0.2% 99.5%  
131 0.3% 99.4%  
132 0.4% 99.1%  
133 0.4% 98.7%  
134 0.4% 98%  
135 0.5% 98%  
136 0.7% 97%  
137 0.8% 97%  
138 1.1% 96%  
139 2% 95%  
140 2% 93%  
141 2% 91%  
142 2% 90%  
143 3% 87%  
144 4% 85%  
145 2% 80%  
146 4% 78%  
147 4% 74%  
148 5% 70%  
149 4% 65%  
150 4% 60%  
151 7% 56% Median
152 5% 48%  
153 5% 44%  
154 6% 38%  
155 5% 32%  
156 4% 27%  
157 3% 23%  
158 4% 20%  
159 3% 16%  
160 2% 13%  
161 2% 11%  
162 3% 9%  
163 1.3% 7%  
164 1.2% 6%  
165 1.3% 4%  
166 0.5% 3% Last Result
167 0.7% 3%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.5% 1.4%  
170 0.2% 0.9%  
171 0.2% 0.7%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations