Opinion Poll by CBOS, 22–29 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 54.0% 52.0–56.0% 51.5–56.6% 51.0–57.1% 50.0–58.0%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 21.9% 20.3–23.6% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.5% 18.7–25.3%
Lewica 11.7% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.1–13.0%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy 0.1% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.1%
Konfederacja 4.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 293 282–306 279–309 276–311 271–316
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 107 97–116 95–118 93–120 91–127
Lewica 0 40 33–46 32–48 32–51 29–57
Koalicja Polska 58 20 11–27 9–30 8–32 6–36
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy 0 0 0 0 0 0–23
Konfederacja 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.3%  
273 0.3% 99.1%  
274 0.5% 98.8%  
275 0.6% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.8% 97%  
278 1.0% 96%  
279 0.9% 95%  
280 1.3% 95%  
281 2% 93%  
282 2% 92%  
283 2% 90%  
284 3% 88%  
285 3% 85%  
286 4% 82%  
287 4% 78%  
288 6% 74%  
289 3% 69%  
290 5% 66%  
291 3% 61%  
292 4% 57%  
293 5% 54% Median
294 5% 49%  
295 3% 45%  
296 4% 41%  
297 5% 38%  
298 3% 32%  
299 3% 29%  
300 3% 27%  
301 3% 23%  
302 3% 20%  
303 2% 17%  
304 3% 15%  
305 2% 12%  
306 2% 10%  
307 2% 9%  
308 2% 7%  
309 1.1% 5%  
310 0.8% 4%  
311 1.0% 3%  
312 0.7% 2%  
313 0.5% 2%  
314 0.3% 1.1%  
315 0.3% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.2% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 1.0% 99.2%  
93 0.8% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 4% 91%  
98 4% 87%  
99 3% 83%  
100 3% 80%  
101 5% 78%  
102 4% 73%  
103 3% 68%  
104 4% 65%  
105 3% 61%  
106 4% 58%  
107 5% 53% Median
108 4% 48%  
109 5% 45%  
110 5% 39%  
111 5% 34%  
112 6% 30%  
113 4% 24%  
114 5% 19%  
115 3% 14%  
116 2% 12%  
117 3% 9%  
118 2% 6%  
119 1.3% 4%  
120 0.9% 3%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.3% 1.4%  
124 0.3% 1.1%  
125 0.2% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.8%  
29 0.4% 99.6%  
30 0.4% 99.3%  
31 1.2% 98.9%  
32 6% 98%  
33 4% 92%  
34 5% 88%  
35 4% 82%  
36 4% 79%  
37 7% 74%  
38 9% 67%  
39 5% 58%  
40 6% 53% Median
41 6% 47%  
42 8% 42%  
43 6% 33%  
44 6% 27%  
45 9% 21%  
46 3% 12%  
47 3% 9%  
48 1.5% 6%  
49 1.0% 5%  
50 1.0% 4%  
51 0.5% 3%  
52 0.4% 2%  
53 0.3% 2%  
54 0.3% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 1.0%  
56 0.1% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0.5% 99.6%  
7 1.3% 99.0%  
8 2% 98%  
9 3% 96%  
10 2% 93%  
11 6% 91%  
12 5% 85%  
13 3% 80%  
14 5% 77%  
15 3% 72%  
16 4% 69%  
17 2% 65%  
18 4% 63%  
19 4% 59%  
20 5% 55% Median
21 4% 50%  
22 11% 46%  
23 9% 34%  
24 7% 25%  
25 4% 19%  
26 3% 15%  
27 2% 12%  
28 1.3% 10%  
29 3% 8%  
30 0.7% 5%  
31 1.0% 4%  
32 1.1% 4%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.7% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.9%  
36 0.3% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0% 0.8%  
8 0% 0.8%  
9 0% 0.8%  
10 0% 0.8%  
11 0% 0.8%  
12 0% 0.8%  
13 0% 0.8%  
14 0% 0.8%  
15 0% 0.8%  
16 0% 0.8%  
17 0% 0.8%  
18 0% 0.8%  
19 0% 0.8%  
20 0% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.8%  
22 0.2% 0.7%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 293 100% 282–306 279–309 276–311 271–316
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 167 0% 154–177 151–180 149–183 144–189
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 148 0% 136–157 133–160 131–163 126–168
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 126 0% 115–138 112–141 110–144 105–148
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 107 0% 97–116 95–118 93–120 91–127

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.3%  
273 0.3% 99.1%  
274 0.5% 98.8%  
275 0.6% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.8% 97%  
278 1.0% 96%  
279 0.9% 95%  
280 1.3% 95%  
281 2% 93%  
282 2% 92%  
283 2% 90%  
284 3% 88%  
285 3% 85%  
286 4% 82%  
287 4% 78%  
288 6% 74%  
289 3% 69%  
290 5% 66%  
291 3% 61%  
292 4% 57%  
293 5% 54% Median
294 5% 49%  
295 3% 45%  
296 4% 41%  
297 5% 38%  
298 3% 32%  
299 3% 29%  
300 3% 27%  
301 3% 23%  
302 3% 20%  
303 2% 17%  
304 3% 15%  
305 2% 12%  
306 2% 10%  
307 2% 9%  
308 2% 7%  
309 1.1% 5%  
310 0.8% 4%  
311 1.0% 3%  
312 0.7% 2%  
313 0.5% 2%  
314 0.3% 1.1%  
315 0.3% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.2% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.6%  
145 0.3% 99.4%  
146 0.3% 99.1%  
147 0.5% 98.8%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 1.0% 98%  
150 0.9% 97%  
151 1.1% 96%  
152 2% 95%  
153 2% 93%  
154 2% 91%  
155 2% 89%  
156 3% 87%  
157 2% 84%  
158 3% 82%  
159 3% 80%  
160 3% 76%  
161 3% 73%  
162 3% 70%  
163 5% 67%  
164 4% 62%  
165 3% 58%  
166 5% 55%  
167 5% 50% Median
168 4% 45%  
169 3% 42%  
170 5% 39%  
171 3% 34%  
172 6% 31%  
173 4% 25%  
174 4% 21%  
175 3% 17%  
176 3% 14%  
177 2% 11%  
178 2% 10%  
179 1.5% 8%  
180 1.3% 6%  
181 0.8% 5%  
182 0.9% 4%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.5%  
187 0.3% 1.1%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.2% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.5%  
128 0.4% 99.2%  
129 0.5% 98.9%  
130 0.8% 98%  
131 1.1% 98%  
132 0.9% 97%  
133 1.2% 96%  
134 1.4% 94%  
135 2% 93%  
136 2% 91%  
137 3% 89%  
138 3% 86%  
139 4% 83%  
140 3% 79%  
141 4% 77%  
142 3% 73%  
143 4% 70%  
144 4% 66%  
145 4% 62%  
146 4% 58%  
147 3% 54% Median
148 5% 50%  
149 5% 45%  
150 5% 40%  
151 5% 35%  
152 4% 29%  
153 3% 25%  
154 5% 22%  
155 4% 17%  
156 3% 13%  
157 2% 10%  
158 2% 9%  
159 1.4% 7%  
160 1.0% 6%  
161 1.2% 5%  
162 0.8% 3%  
163 0.5% 3%  
164 0.4% 2%  
165 0.4% 2%  
166 0.3% 1.2% Last Result
167 0.2% 0.9%  
168 0.2% 0.7%  
169 0.1% 0.5%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.2% 99.5%  
107 0.3% 99.2%  
108 0.4% 98.9%  
109 0.9% 98.5%  
110 0.7% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 1.4% 94%  
114 2% 92%  
115 2% 90%  
116 2% 88%  
117 3% 85%  
118 4% 83%  
119 2% 79%  
120 3% 77%  
121 5% 73%  
122 3% 68%  
123 5% 65%  
124 5% 60%  
125 4% 54%  
126 4% 50%  
127 4% 46% Median
128 4% 42%  
129 3% 39%  
130 3% 35%  
131 3% 32%  
132 3% 29%  
133 3% 26%  
134 3% 23%  
135 2% 19%  
136 3% 17%  
137 2% 14%  
138 3% 12%  
139 2% 9%  
140 2% 7%  
141 1.4% 6%  
142 1.1% 4%  
143 0.7% 3%  
144 0.7% 3%  
145 0.4% 2%  
146 0.4% 1.5%  
147 0.4% 1.0%  
148 0.2% 0.7%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 1.0% 99.2%  
93 0.8% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 4% 91%  
98 4% 87%  
99 3% 83%  
100 3% 80%  
101 5% 78%  
102 4% 73%  
103 3% 68%  
104 4% 65%  
105 3% 61%  
106 4% 58%  
107 5% 53% Median
108 4% 48%  
109 5% 45%  
110 5% 39%  
111 5% 34%  
112 6% 30%  
113 4% 24%  
114 5% 19%  
115 3% 14%  
116 2% 12%  
117 3% 9%  
118 2% 6%  
119 1.3% 4%  
120 0.9% 3%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.3% 1.4%  
124 0.3% 1.1%  
125 0.2% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations