Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Onet, 24 August–4 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 43.5% 42.8–44.2% 42.6–44.4% 42.4–44.6% 42.1–44.9%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 21.3% 20.7–21.9% 20.5–22.1% 20.4–22.2% 20.1–22.5%
Lewica 11.7% 14.2% 13.7–14.7% 13.5–14.8% 13.4–15.0% 13.2–15.2%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 5.7% 5.4–6.1% 5.3–6.2% 5.2–6.3% 5.1–6.4%
Konfederacja 4.8% 4.8% 4.5–5.2% 4.4–5.2% 4.4–5.3% 4.2–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 261 256–267 254–268 253–269 251–271
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 112 110–118 109–119 107–120 105–122
Lewica 0 71 66–76 66–77 66–77 65–79
Koalicja Polska 58 12 10–16 9–18 9–19 8–23
Konfederacja 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–6 0–8

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.3% 99.8%  
251 0.7% 99.5%  
252 1.1% 98.8%  
253 2% 98%  
254 2% 96%  
255 3% 94%  
256 6% 90%  
257 5% 85%  
258 7% 79%  
259 8% 73%  
260 9% 65%  
261 8% 56% Median
262 10% 47%  
263 8% 38%  
264 6% 30%  
265 6% 24%  
266 6% 18%  
267 5% 12%  
268 3% 8%  
269 2% 4%  
270 1.3% 2%  
271 0.8% 1.1%  
272 0.2% 0.3%  
273 0.1% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.8% 99.4%  
107 1.3% 98.6%  
108 2% 97%  
109 3% 96%  
110 5% 92%  
111 3% 87%  
112 35% 84% Median
113 4% 50%  
114 7% 46%  
115 12% 39%  
116 11% 27%  
117 2% 16%  
118 4% 13%  
119 6% 9%  
120 3% 4%  
121 0.3% 0.9%  
122 0.4% 0.6%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 100%  
65 2% 99.8%  
66 8% 98%  
67 11% 90%  
68 7% 79%  
69 7% 71%  
70 9% 65%  
71 8% 56% Median
72 6% 48%  
73 6% 42%  
74 12% 36%  
75 6% 25%  
76 13% 19%  
77 4% 6%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 1.4% 99.7%  
9 4% 98%  
10 8% 94%  
11 23% 86%  
12 24% 63% Median
13 14% 39%  
14 3% 25%  
15 5% 22%  
16 9% 17%  
17 2% 8%  
18 2% 7%  
19 3% 5%  
20 0.6% 2%  
21 0.3% 1.5%  
22 0.3% 1.1%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 2% 25%  
4 13% 23%  
5 6% 10%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.9% 1.5%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 261 100% 256–267 254–268 253–269 251–271
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 198 0% 192–203 191–204 189–205 186–208
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 185 0% 181–189 179–191 178–192 175–193
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 126 0% 121–132 120–134 119–136 116–139
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 112 0% 110–118 109–119 107–120 105–122

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.3% 99.8%  
251 0.7% 99.5%  
252 1.1% 98.8%  
253 2% 98%  
254 2% 96%  
255 3% 94%  
256 6% 90%  
257 5% 85%  
258 7% 79%  
259 8% 73%  
260 9% 65%  
261 8% 56% Median
262 10% 47%  
263 8% 38%  
264 6% 30%  
265 6% 24%  
266 6% 18%  
267 5% 12%  
268 3% 8%  
269 2% 4%  
270 1.3% 2%  
271 0.8% 1.1%  
272 0.2% 0.3%  
273 0.1% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0.1% 100%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.3% 99.8%  
187 0.4% 99.5%  
188 0.5% 99.1%  
189 1.2% 98.6%  
190 2% 97%  
191 3% 96%  
192 4% 93%  
193 6% 89%  
194 7% 84%  
195 7% 77% Median
196 7% 70%  
197 9% 63%  
198 10% 54%  
199 9% 44%  
200 10% 35%  
201 8% 25%  
202 6% 17%  
203 4% 12%  
204 3% 8%  
205 2% 4%  
206 1.1% 2%  
207 0.6% 1.2%  
208 0.3% 0.6%  
209 0.2% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100% Last Result
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.4% 99.7%  
176 0.5% 99.3%  
177 0.8% 98.8%  
178 1.3% 98%  
179 3% 97%  
180 3% 94%  
181 6% 91%  
182 11% 84%  
183 10% 74% Median
184 8% 64%  
185 8% 56%  
186 13% 47%  
187 8% 34%  
188 11% 26%  
189 6% 15%  
190 3% 10%  
191 3% 6%  
192 2% 3%  
193 0.6% 1.0%  
194 0.3% 0.5%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.3% 99.7%  
117 0.6% 99.4%  
118 1.1% 98.8%  
119 2% 98%  
120 2% 96%  
121 4% 94%  
122 5% 90%  
123 10% 85%  
124 13% 74% Median
125 11% 61%  
126 7% 50%  
127 8% 43%  
128 8% 35%  
129 5% 27%  
130 5% 22%  
131 6% 17%  
132 3% 12%  
133 2% 9%  
134 2% 7%  
135 2% 5%  
136 1.0% 3%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.5% 1.1%  
139 0.2% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.8% 99.4%  
107 1.3% 98.6%  
108 2% 97%  
109 3% 96%  
110 5% 92%  
111 3% 87%  
112 35% 84% Median
113 4% 50%  
114 7% 46%  
115 12% 39%  
116 11% 27%  
117 2% 16%  
118 4% 13%  
119 6% 9%  
120 3% 4%  
121 0.3% 0.9%  
122 0.4% 0.6%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations