Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wpolityce.pl, 6–11 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 45.6% 43.6–47.6% 43.0–48.2% 42.6–48.7% 41.6–49.6%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.1–30.2%
Lewica 11.7% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.4% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.4%
Konfederacja 4.8% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 236 224–248 222–250 219–253 212–260
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 126 117–138 114–142 112–144 107–149
Lewica 0 60 49–66 46–66 45–68 42–74
Koalicja Polska 58 39 30–44 28–46 26–47 23–51
Konfederacja 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–4 0–6

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.1% 99.6%  
213 0.2% 99.5%  
214 0.4% 99.2%  
215 0.4% 98.9%  
216 0.4% 98%  
217 0.3% 98%  
218 0.3% 98%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.9% 97%  
221 0.9% 96%  
222 3% 95%  
223 3% 93%  
224 2% 90%  
225 1.4% 89%  
226 1.0% 87%  
227 0.5% 86%  
228 0.8% 86%  
229 0.9% 85%  
230 1.1% 84%  
231 4% 83% Majority
232 9% 79%  
233 7% 70%  
234 6% 63%  
235 5% 58% Last Result
236 5% 53% Median
237 6% 47%  
238 3% 41%  
239 3% 38%  
240 2% 34%  
241 4% 32%  
242 4% 28%  
243 5% 24%  
244 4% 19%  
245 1.1% 16%  
246 1.4% 14%  
247 2% 13%  
248 3% 11%  
249 1.2% 8%  
250 3% 7%  
251 1.1% 5%  
252 0.5% 3%  
253 0.8% 3%  
254 0.3% 2%  
255 0.3% 2%  
256 0.4% 2%  
257 0.1% 1.2%  
258 0.2% 1.1%  
259 0.3% 0.8%  
260 0.1% 0.5%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3%  
263 0.1% 0.2%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.2% 99.3%  
109 0.3% 99.1%  
110 0.5% 98.8%  
111 0.6% 98%  
112 1.5% 98%  
113 1.3% 96%  
114 1.4% 95%  
115 1.4% 94%  
116 1.4% 92%  
117 2% 91%  
118 2% 89%  
119 4% 87%  
120 3% 83%  
121 4% 80%  
122 7% 76%  
123 5% 68%  
124 6% 63%  
125 5% 56%  
126 7% 52% Median
127 5% 45%  
128 7% 39%  
129 3% 32%  
130 3% 29%  
131 4% 26%  
132 2% 22%  
133 3% 20%  
134 1.4% 18%  
135 2% 16%  
136 2% 14%  
137 2% 12%  
138 1.2% 10%  
139 2% 9%  
140 0.7% 7%  
141 0.8% 7%  
142 0.9% 6%  
143 1.5% 5%  
144 1.1% 4%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.2%  
148 0.2% 0.9%  
149 0.3% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 0.2% 99.1%  
45 3% 98.8%  
46 2% 96%  
47 1.4% 94%  
48 2% 93%  
49 2% 91%  
50 7% 89%  
51 2% 82%  
52 2% 80%  
53 2% 78%  
54 3% 76%  
55 3% 74%  
56 4% 70%  
57 3% 66%  
58 6% 62%  
59 3% 56%  
60 6% 53% Median
61 6% 48%  
62 7% 42%  
63 8% 35%  
64 7% 27%  
65 7% 20%  
66 8% 13%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.0% 3%  
69 0.4% 2%  
70 0.2% 2%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 0.2% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 0.1% 99.7%  
23 0.3% 99.6%  
24 0.3% 99.3%  
25 0.8% 99.0%  
26 1.2% 98%  
27 1.1% 97%  
28 2% 96%  
29 3% 94%  
30 3% 91%  
31 4% 88%  
32 3% 84%  
33 4% 81%  
34 3% 77%  
35 5% 74%  
36 5% 69%  
37 5% 65%  
38 4% 60%  
39 7% 55% Median
40 5% 49%  
41 7% 44%  
42 11% 37%  
43 9% 26%  
44 7% 16%  
45 4% 10%  
46 2% 5%  
47 0.9% 3%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 0.6% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 9% 13%  
3 2% 5%  
4 0.8% 3%  
5 0.7% 2%  
6 0.6% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 236 83% 224–248 222–250 219–253 212–260
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 224 14% 212–236 209–238 207–240 200–248
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 185 0% 174–197 171–201 168–204 163–209
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 164 0% 154–176 151–181 148–184 143–189
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 126 0% 117–138 114–142 112–144 107–149

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.1% 99.6%  
213 0.2% 99.5%  
214 0.4% 99.2%  
215 0.4% 98.9%  
216 0.4% 98%  
217 0.3% 98%  
218 0.3% 98%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.9% 97%  
221 0.9% 96%  
222 3% 95%  
223 3% 93%  
224 2% 90%  
225 1.4% 89%  
226 1.0% 87%  
227 0.5% 86%  
228 0.8% 86%  
229 0.9% 85%  
230 1.1% 84%  
231 4% 83% Majority
232 9% 79%  
233 7% 70%  
234 6% 63%  
235 5% 58% Last Result
236 5% 53% Median
237 6% 47%  
238 3% 41%  
239 3% 38%  
240 2% 34%  
241 4% 32%  
242 4% 28%  
243 5% 24%  
244 4% 19%  
245 1.1% 16%  
246 1.4% 14%  
247 2% 13%  
248 3% 11%  
249 1.2% 8%  
250 3% 7%  
251 1.1% 5%  
252 0.5% 3%  
253 0.8% 3%  
254 0.3% 2%  
255 0.3% 2%  
256 0.4% 2%  
257 0.1% 1.2%  
258 0.2% 1.1%  
259 0.3% 0.8%  
260 0.1% 0.5%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3%  
263 0.1% 0.2%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.2% 99.6%  
201 0.3% 99.4%  
202 0.2% 99.1%  
203 0.2% 98.9%  
204 0.4% 98.7%  
205 0.4% 98%  
206 0.4% 98%  
207 0.8% 98%  
208 0.7% 97%  
209 1.3% 96%  
210 3% 95%  
211 1.2% 92%  
212 3% 91%  
213 2% 88%  
214 2% 86%  
215 1.4% 84%  
216 4% 83%  
217 5% 79%  
218 3% 74%  
219 3% 71%  
220 2% 67%  
221 4% 65%  
222 4% 61%  
223 6% 57%  
224 5% 51% Last Result
225 5% 46% Median
226 6% 40%  
227 7% 35%  
228 9% 28%  
229 3% 19%  
230 0.9% 15%  
231 0.3% 14% Majority
232 0.4% 14%  
233 0.3% 14%  
234 0.9% 14%  
235 1.4% 13%  
236 2% 11%  
237 3% 10%  
238 3% 7%  
239 0.9% 4%  
240 0.3% 3%  
241 0.2% 2%  
242 0.2% 2%  
243 0.3% 2%  
244 0.3% 2%  
245 0.4% 1.4%  
246 0.4% 1.0%  
247 0.2% 0.7%  
248 0.1% 0.5%  
249 0.1% 0.4%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0.1% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.6%  
164 0.4% 99.4%  
165 0.4% 99.0%  
166 0.3% 98.7% Last Result
167 0.5% 98%  
168 0.8% 98%  
169 0.7% 97%  
170 1.2% 96%  
171 2% 95%  
172 0.7% 93%  
173 1.0% 92%  
174 2% 91%  
175 2% 89%  
176 5% 88%  
177 3% 82%  
178 3% 79%  
179 3% 77%  
180 4% 74%  
181 3% 70%  
182 5% 67%  
183 4% 62%  
184 5% 58%  
185 5% 52%  
186 6% 47% Median
187 5% 41%  
188 3% 36%  
189 4% 33%  
190 4% 29%  
191 3% 25%  
192 3% 21%  
193 3% 18%  
194 2% 15%  
195 2% 13%  
196 1.2% 12%  
197 2% 10%  
198 0.9% 8%  
199 0.6% 7%  
200 1.3% 7%  
201 1.1% 5%  
202 0.8% 4%  
203 0.8% 4%  
204 0.7% 3%  
205 0.4% 2%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.4% 1.2%  
208 0.2% 0.8%  
209 0.2% 0.6%  
210 0.1% 0.4%  
211 0.1% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.2% 99.5%  
145 0.3% 99.3%  
146 0.5% 99.0%  
147 0.4% 98%  
148 0.6% 98%  
149 0.6% 97%  
150 0.9% 97%  
151 1.0% 96%  
152 1.4% 95%  
153 2% 93%  
154 2% 91%  
155 3% 90%  
156 2% 87%  
157 3% 84%  
158 3% 81%  
159 4% 78%  
160 5% 74%  
161 5% 69%  
162 4% 64%  
163 7% 60%  
164 6% 53%  
165 6% 47% Median
166 4% 42%  
167 7% 37%  
168 5% 31%  
169 2% 26%  
170 2% 24%  
171 3% 22%  
172 2% 19%  
173 1.1% 17%  
174 3% 16%  
175 2% 13%  
176 1.2% 11%  
177 1.2% 10%  
178 0.8% 9%  
179 1.1% 8%  
180 0.9% 7%  
181 1.2% 6%  
182 0.6% 4%  
183 1.0% 4%  
184 0.6% 3%  
185 0.3% 2%  
186 0.5% 2%  
187 0.4% 1.5%  
188 0.3% 1.1%  
189 0.3% 0.8%  
190 0.2% 0.5%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.2% 99.3%  
109 0.3% 99.1%  
110 0.5% 98.8%  
111 0.6% 98%  
112 1.5% 98%  
113 1.3% 96%  
114 1.4% 95%  
115 1.4% 94%  
116 1.4% 92%  
117 2% 91%  
118 2% 89%  
119 4% 87%  
120 3% 83%  
121 4% 80%  
122 7% 76%  
123 5% 68%  
124 6% 63%  
125 5% 56%  
126 7% 52% Median
127 5% 45%  
128 7% 39%  
129 3% 32%  
130 3% 29%  
131 4% 26%  
132 2% 22%  
133 3% 20%  
134 1.4% 18%  
135 2% 16%  
136 2% 14%  
137 2% 12%  
138 1.2% 10%  
139 2% 9%  
140 0.7% 7%  
141 0.8% 7%  
142 0.9% 6%  
143 1.5% 5%  
144 1.1% 4%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.2%  
148 0.2% 0.9%  
149 0.3% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations