Opinion Poll by IBSP, 12–14 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 37.6% | 45.6% | 43.6–47.6% | 43.0–48.2% | 42.5–48.7% | 41.6–49.7% |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 31.7% | 30.9% | 29.0–32.8% | 28.5–33.3% | 28.1–33.8% | 27.2–34.7% |
| Lewica | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.0–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.4% | 9.8–15.2% |
| Konfederacja | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Koalicja Polska | 13.9% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 246 | 233–255 | 229–258 | 226–260 | 221–266 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 153 | 145–163 | 143–167 | 140–171 | 135–176 |
| Lewica | 0 | 49 | 43–58 | 41–61 | 38–64 | 36–68 |
| Konfederacja | 0 | 10 | 4–20 | 2–22 | 0–24 | 0–27 |
| Koalicja Polska | 58 | 0 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–9 | 0–12 |
Zjednoczona Prawica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 225 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 226 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 228 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 229 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 230 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 231 | 1.1% | 93% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 92% | |
| 233 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 234 | 2% | 89% | |
| 235 | 2% | 87% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 85% | |
| 237 | 2% | 83% | |
| 238 | 3% | 81% | |
| 239 | 3% | 78% | |
| 240 | 4% | 75% | |
| 241 | 4% | 72% | |
| 242 | 4% | 68% | |
| 243 | 4% | 64% | |
| 244 | 5% | 59% | |
| 245 | 4% | 55% | |
| 246 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 247 | 6% | 47% | |
| 248 | 6% | 41% | |
| 249 | 5% | 35% | |
| 250 | 5% | 31% | |
| 251 | 4% | 25% | |
| 252 | 4% | 21% | |
| 253 | 3% | 17% | |
| 254 | 2% | 14% | |
| 255 | 2% | 11% | |
| 256 | 2% | 9% | |
| 257 | 2% | 7% | |
| 258 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 259 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 260 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 262 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 143 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 144 | 2% | 94% | |
| 145 | 2% | 91% | |
| 146 | 3% | 89% | |
| 147 | 4% | 86% | |
| 148 | 5% | 83% | |
| 149 | 5% | 78% | |
| 150 | 5% | 73% | |
| 151 | 6% | 68% | |
| 152 | 6% | 62% | |
| 153 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 48% | |
| 155 | 6% | 43% | |
| 156 | 5% | 37% | |
| 157 | 4% | 32% | |
| 158 | 4% | 27% | |
| 159 | 4% | 23% | |
| 160 | 3% | 20% | |
| 161 | 3% | 17% | |
| 162 | 2% | 14% | |
| 163 | 2% | 12% | |
| 164 | 2% | 10% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 166 | 1.1% | 7% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 42 | 2% | 94% | |
| 43 | 3% | 92% | |
| 44 | 10% | 89% | |
| 45 | 6% | 79% | |
| 46 | 7% | 73% | |
| 47 | 7% | 66% | |
| 48 | 5% | 58% | |
| 49 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 50 | 4% | 47% | |
| 51 | 7% | 43% | |
| 52 | 5% | 36% | |
| 53 | 4% | 31% | |
| 54 | 4% | 27% | |
| 55 | 4% | 23% | |
| 56 | 3% | 18% | |
| 57 | 3% | 15% | |
| 58 | 3% | 12% | |
| 59 | 2% | 9% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 2% | 97% | |
| 3 | 5% | 95% | |
| 4 | 5% | 90% | |
| 5 | 4% | 85% | |
| 6 | 5% | 81% | |
| 7 | 7% | 76% | |
| 8 | 9% | 69% | |
| 9 | 9% | 60% | |
| 10 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 11 | 7% | 43% | |
| 12 | 4% | 36% | |
| 13 | 5% | 32% | |
| 14 | 4% | 28% | |
| 15 | 3% | 24% | |
| 16 | 2% | 21% | |
| 17 | 3% | 19% | |
| 18 | 3% | 16% | |
| 19 | 2% | 13% | |
| 20 | 2% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 8% | |
| 22 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 23 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Polska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 6 | 3% | 11% | |
| 7 | 4% | 8% | |
| 8 | 2% | 4% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 246 | 93% | 233–255 | 229–258 | 226–260 | 221–266 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska | 224 | 204 | 0.2% | 194–216 | 191–220 | 188–223 | 183–228 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica | 166 | 203 | 0.2% | 193–214 | 190–219 | 188–222 | 183–227 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska | 224 | 154 | 0% | 146–165 | 143–169 | 141–172 | 135–177 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 153 | 0% | 145–163 | 143–167 | 140–171 | 135–176 |
Zjednoczona Prawica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 225 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 226 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 228 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 229 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 230 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 231 | 1.1% | 93% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 92% | |
| 233 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 234 | 2% | 89% | |
| 235 | 2% | 87% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 85% | |
| 237 | 2% | 83% | |
| 238 | 3% | 81% | |
| 239 | 3% | 78% | |
| 240 | 4% | 75% | |
| 241 | 4% | 72% | |
| 242 | 4% | 68% | |
| 243 | 4% | 64% | |
| 244 | 5% | 59% | |
| 245 | 4% | 55% | |
| 246 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 247 | 6% | 47% | |
| 248 | 6% | 41% | |
| 249 | 5% | 35% | |
| 250 | 5% | 31% | |
| 251 | 4% | 25% | |
| 252 | 4% | 21% | |
| 253 | 3% | 17% | |
| 254 | 2% | 14% | |
| 255 | 2% | 11% | |
| 256 | 2% | 9% | |
| 257 | 2% | 7% | |
| 258 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 259 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 260 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 262 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 192 | 2% | 94% | |
| 193 | 2% | 93% | |
| 194 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 195 | 2% | 89% | |
| 196 | 2% | 87% | |
| 197 | 3% | 85% | |
| 198 | 3% | 81% | |
| 199 | 5% | 78% | |
| 200 | 4% | 74% | |
| 201 | 5% | 69% | |
| 202 | 6% | 64% | Median |
| 203 | 6% | 58% | |
| 204 | 5% | 52% | |
| 205 | 5% | 47% | |
| 206 | 4% | 42% | |
| 207 | 4% | 38% | |
| 208 | 5% | 33% | |
| 209 | 3% | 29% | |
| 210 | 4% | 26% | |
| 211 | 3% | 22% | |
| 212 | 3% | 19% | |
| 213 | 3% | 16% | |
| 214 | 2% | 14% | |
| 215 | 2% | 12% | |
| 216 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 217 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 218 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 219 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 220 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 221 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 223 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 2% | Last Result |
| 225 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 190 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 191 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 192 | 2% | 94% | |
| 193 | 2% | 92% | |
| 194 | 2% | 90% | |
| 195 | 3% | 88% | |
| 196 | 3% | 85% | |
| 197 | 4% | 83% | |
| 198 | 3% | 79% | |
| 199 | 5% | 76% | |
| 200 | 5% | 71% | |
| 201 | 6% | 66% | |
| 202 | 7% | 60% | Median |
| 203 | 6% | 53% | |
| 204 | 5% | 47% | |
| 205 | 5% | 43% | |
| 206 | 4% | 37% | |
| 207 | 4% | 33% | |
| 208 | 4% | 29% | |
| 209 | 3% | 25% | |
| 210 | 3% | 22% | |
| 211 | 3% | 19% | |
| 212 | 2% | 16% | |
| 213 | 2% | 14% | |
| 214 | 2% | 12% | |
| 215 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 216 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 218 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 220 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 221 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 222 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 144 | 2% | 94% | |
| 145 | 2% | 92% | |
| 146 | 2% | 90% | |
| 147 | 3% | 88% | |
| 148 | 4% | 85% | |
| 149 | 4% | 80% | |
| 150 | 5% | 76% | |
| 151 | 6% | 71% | |
| 152 | 5% | 65% | |
| 153 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 53% | |
| 155 | 6% | 48% | |
| 156 | 6% | 42% | |
| 157 | 5% | 37% | |
| 158 | 4% | 32% | |
| 159 | 4% | 28% | |
| 160 | 4% | 24% | |
| 161 | 3% | 21% | |
| 162 | 2% | 17% | |
| 163 | 2% | 15% | |
| 164 | 2% | 13% | |
| 165 | 2% | 11% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Koalicja Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 143 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 144 | 2% | 94% | |
| 145 | 2% | 91% | |
| 146 | 3% | 89% | |
| 147 | 4% | 86% | |
| 148 | 5% | 83% | |
| 149 | 5% | 78% | |
| 150 | 5% | 73% | |
| 151 | 6% | 68% | |
| 152 | 6% | 62% | |
| 153 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 48% | |
| 155 | 6% | 43% | |
| 156 | 5% | 37% | |
| 157 | 4% | 32% | |
| 158 | 4% | 27% | |
| 159 | 4% | 23% | |
| 160 | 3% | 20% | |
| 161 | 3% | 17% | |
| 162 | 2% | 14% | |
| 163 | 2% | 12% | |
| 164 | 2% | 10% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 166 | 1.1% | 7% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IBSP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1011
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.64%