Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wpolityce.pl, 13–18 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 47.2% 45.1–49.2% 44.6–49.8% 44.1–50.3% 43.1–51.2%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 26.1% 24.3–27.9% 23.9–28.4% 23.4–28.9% 22.6–29.8%
Lewica 11.7% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Konfederacja 4.8% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 248 237–261 233–265 230–267 224–273
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 126 116–138 113–142 110–144 104–148
Lewica 0 49 41–59 39–61 37–63 35–66
Konfederacja 0 20 11–28 9–31 6–33 4–37
Koalicja Polska 58 16 9–25 7–27 6–28 0–34

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.5%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0.2% 99.2%  
227 0.2% 99.1%  
228 0.3% 98.9%  
229 0.7% 98.6%  
230 0.9% 98%  
231 1.1% 97% Majority
232 0.8% 96%  
233 1.2% 95%  
234 0.9% 94%  
235 1.0% 93% Last Result
236 1.5% 92%  
237 2% 90%  
238 3% 89%  
239 3% 86%  
240 4% 83%  
241 4% 79%  
242 5% 75%  
243 5% 70%  
244 4% 65%  
245 2% 60%  
246 4% 58%  
247 3% 54%  
248 4% 50% Median
249 5% 47%  
250 5% 42%  
251 5% 37%  
252 5% 32%  
253 4% 27%  
254 3% 23%  
255 2% 21%  
256 2% 19%  
257 2% 17%  
258 1.3% 15%  
259 1.3% 14%  
260 2% 12%  
261 1.3% 10%  
262 2% 9%  
263 1.3% 8%  
264 1.0% 6%  
265 1.1% 5%  
266 1.2% 4%  
267 0.8% 3%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.3% 2%  
270 0.2% 1.2%  
271 0.2% 1.0%  
272 0.3% 0.8%  
273 0.2% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.2%  
276 0.1% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.2% 99.3%  
107 0.3% 99.1%  
108 0.5% 98.8%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 0.7% 98%  
111 0.7% 97%  
112 1.0% 97%  
113 0.8% 96%  
114 1.3% 95%  
115 2% 93%  
116 2% 91%  
117 2% 89%  
118 4% 87%  
119 3% 83%  
120 4% 80%  
121 4% 76%  
122 5% 73%  
123 5% 67%  
124 4% 63%  
125 6% 58%  
126 5% 52% Median
127 5% 47%  
128 5% 42%  
129 4% 38%  
130 4% 34%  
131 4% 30%  
132 4% 26%  
133 2% 22%  
134 3% 20%  
135 3% 17%  
136 1.5% 14%  
137 1.3% 13%  
138 3% 11%  
139 1.0% 8%  
140 1.3% 7%  
141 1.0% 6%  
142 1.0% 5%  
143 1.0% 4%  
144 0.8% 3%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.2%  
148 0.3% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.6%  
36 0.7% 99.3%  
37 1.2% 98.6%  
38 2% 97%  
39 1.4% 96%  
40 2% 94%  
41 3% 93%  
42 5% 90%  
43 2% 85%  
44 5% 83%  
45 5% 77%  
46 7% 73%  
47 7% 65%  
48 7% 58%  
49 5% 52% Median
50 5% 47%  
51 8% 41%  
52 5% 33%  
53 3% 28%  
54 3% 25%  
55 4% 23%  
56 3% 19%  
57 3% 16%  
58 2% 13%  
59 2% 11%  
60 2% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.2% 5%  
63 1.4% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.8% 1.5%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 0.4% 99.6%  
5 1.1% 99.2%  
6 1.0% 98%  
7 0.8% 97%  
8 1.2% 96%  
9 1.1% 95%  
10 2% 94%  
11 4% 92%  
12 5% 89%  
13 5% 84%  
14 5% 79%  
15 4% 74%  
16 6% 70%  
17 5% 64%  
18 3% 59%  
19 6% 56%  
20 3% 50% Median
21 5% 47%  
22 7% 43%  
23 4% 36%  
24 4% 32%  
25 5% 27%  
26 6% 22%  
27 4% 16%  
28 4% 12%  
29 1.4% 8%  
30 2% 7%  
31 1.2% 5%  
32 1.0% 4%  
33 1.0% 3%  
34 0.6% 2%  
35 0.5% 2%  
36 0.4% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0.1% 99.4%  
5 0.4% 99.3%  
6 2% 98.9%  
7 3% 97%  
8 3% 94%  
9 4% 92%  
10 6% 88%  
11 7% 82%  
12 6% 75%  
13 4% 70%  
14 6% 66%  
15 7% 60%  
16 5% 54% Median
17 6% 49%  
18 6% 43%  
19 4% 37%  
20 3% 33%  
21 3% 29%  
22 3% 26%  
23 5% 23%  
24 4% 18%  
25 5% 13%  
26 4% 9%  
27 2% 5%  
28 0.9% 3%  
29 0.7% 2%  
30 0.3% 2%  
31 0.3% 1.4%  
32 0.3% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 248 97% 237–261 233–265 230–267 224–273
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 192 0% 180–205 177–209 174–212 168–218
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 176 0% 164–189 160–193 158–196 152–201
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 143 0% 130–155 128–158 125–161 119–167
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 126 0% 116–138 113–142 110–144 104–148

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.5%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0.2% 99.2%  
227 0.2% 99.1%  
228 0.3% 98.9%  
229 0.7% 98.6%  
230 0.9% 98%  
231 1.1% 97% Majority
232 0.8% 96%  
233 1.2% 95%  
234 0.9% 94%  
235 1.0% 93% Last Result
236 1.5% 92%  
237 2% 90%  
238 3% 89%  
239 3% 86%  
240 4% 83%  
241 4% 79%  
242 5% 75%  
243 5% 70%  
244 4% 65%  
245 2% 60%  
246 4% 58%  
247 3% 54%  
248 4% 50% Median
249 5% 47%  
250 5% 42%  
251 5% 37%  
252 5% 32%  
253 4% 27%  
254 3% 23%  
255 2% 21%  
256 2% 19%  
257 2% 17%  
258 1.3% 15%  
259 1.3% 14%  
260 2% 12%  
261 1.3% 10%  
262 2% 9%  
263 1.3% 8%  
264 1.0% 6%  
265 1.1% 5%  
266 1.2% 4%  
267 0.8% 3%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.3% 2%  
270 0.2% 1.2%  
271 0.2% 1.0%  
272 0.3% 0.8%  
273 0.2% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.2%  
276 0.1% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0.2% 99.6%  
169 0.1% 99.4%  
170 0.2% 99.3%  
171 0.3% 99.0%  
172 0.6% 98.8%  
173 0.6% 98%  
174 0.6% 98%  
175 0.7% 97%  
176 1.0% 96%  
177 1.2% 95%  
178 2% 94%  
179 2% 92%  
180 2% 91%  
181 2% 89%  
182 2% 87%  
183 2% 85%  
184 3% 82%  
185 4% 79%  
186 3% 76%  
187 4% 72%  
188 3% 69%  
189 4% 66%  
190 3% 62%  
191 5% 59% Median
192 4% 54%  
193 4% 50%  
194 3% 46%  
195 3% 43%  
196 5% 39%  
197 4% 34%  
198 3% 30%  
199 3% 27%  
200 3% 24%  
201 3% 22%  
202 3% 19%  
203 2% 16%  
204 2% 14%  
205 2% 12%  
206 2% 10%  
207 1.1% 8%  
208 1.2% 7%  
209 1.3% 6%  
210 1.1% 5%  
211 0.7% 3%  
212 0.6% 3%  
213 0.4% 2%  
214 0.5% 2%  
215 0.3% 1.3%  
216 0.3% 1.0%  
217 0.2% 0.7%  
218 0.1% 0.5%  
219 0.1% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.3%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1% Last Result
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.4% 98.9%  
156 0.6% 98.5%  
157 0.4% 98%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 1.3% 97%  
160 0.9% 96%  
161 0.7% 95%  
162 1.2% 94%  
163 2% 93%  
164 2% 90%  
165 2% 88%  
166 3% 86% Last Result
167 3% 83%  
168 3% 80%  
169 4% 78%  
170 4% 74%  
171 4% 70%  
172 5% 67%  
173 4% 62%  
174 4% 58%  
175 4% 54% Median
176 3% 50%  
177 5% 47%  
178 5% 43%  
179 4% 38%  
180 3% 34%  
181 4% 31%  
182 2% 27%  
183 3% 26%  
184 4% 23%  
185 3% 19%  
186 2% 16%  
187 2% 14%  
188 2% 12%  
189 1.4% 10%  
190 1.5% 9%  
191 1.2% 7%  
192 0.9% 6%  
193 1.2% 5%  
194 1.0% 4%  
195 0.4% 3%  
196 0.7% 3%  
197 0.5% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.4%  
199 0.4% 1.2%  
200 0.3% 0.8%  
201 0.2% 0.5%  
202 0.1% 0.4%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.5%  
121 0.2% 99.3%  
122 0.3% 99.1%  
123 0.3% 98.8%  
124 0.6% 98%  
125 0.8% 98%  
126 1.0% 97%  
127 1.0% 96%  
128 2% 95%  
129 1.2% 94%  
130 2% 92%  
131 1.2% 90%  
132 3% 89%  
133 2% 86%  
134 3% 84%  
135 3% 81%  
136 3% 77%  
137 4% 75%  
138 3% 71%  
139 3% 67%  
140 4% 64%  
141 2% 60%  
142 5% 58% Median
143 4% 53%  
144 3% 49%  
145 4% 46%  
146 3% 42%  
147 4% 38%  
148 4% 35%  
149 5% 31%  
150 4% 26%  
151 3% 23%  
152 3% 20%  
153 4% 17%  
154 2% 13%  
155 2% 11%  
156 2% 9%  
157 2% 7%  
158 1.0% 6%  
159 0.9% 5%  
160 1.0% 4%  
161 0.6% 3%  
162 0.5% 2%  
163 0.3% 2%  
164 0.3% 1.5%  
165 0.3% 1.1%  
166 0.2% 0.9%  
167 0.2% 0.7%  
168 0.1% 0.5%  
169 0.1% 0.4%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.2% 99.3%  
107 0.3% 99.1%  
108 0.5% 98.8%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 0.7% 98%  
111 0.7% 97%  
112 1.0% 97%  
113 0.8% 96%  
114 1.3% 95%  
115 2% 93%  
116 2% 91%  
117 2% 89%  
118 4% 87%  
119 3% 83%  
120 4% 80%  
121 4% 76%  
122 5% 73%  
123 5% 67%  
124 4% 63%  
125 6% 58%  
126 5% 52% Median
127 5% 47%  
128 5% 42%  
129 4% 38%  
130 4% 34%  
131 4% 30%  
132 4% 26%  
133 2% 22%  
134 3% 20%  
135 3% 17%  
136 1.5% 14%  
137 1.3% 13%  
138 3% 11%  
139 1.0% 8%  
140 1.3% 7%  
141 1.0% 6%  
142 1.0% 5%  
143 1.0% 4%  
144 0.8% 3%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.2%  
148 0.3% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations