Opinion Poll by IBRiS for RMF, 20–21 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 44.5% 42.6–46.5% 42.1–47.0% 41.6–47.5% 40.7–48.4%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 23.9% 22.3–25.6% 21.9–26.1% 21.5–26.5% 20.7–27.4%
Lewica 11.7% 14.1% 12.8–15.5% 12.5–15.9% 12.1–16.3% 11.6–17.0%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.1%
Konfederacja 4.8% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.7% 3.0–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 252 241–267 239–271 236–273 230–277
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 124 114–138 112–141 109–143 103–146
Lewica 0 66 60–76 55–78 53–80 49–84
Koalicja Polska 58 13 7–24 0–25 0–26 0–30
Konfederacja 0 0 0–4 0–6 0–8 0–12

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 99.5%  
231 0.2% 99.4% Majority
232 0.2% 99.2%  
233 0.2% 99.1%  
234 0.3% 98.8%  
235 0.5% 98.5% Last Result
236 0.7% 98%  
237 0.9% 97%  
238 0.8% 96%  
239 1.5% 96%  
240 2% 94%  
241 3% 92%  
242 2% 90%  
243 4% 87%  
244 4% 83%  
245 4% 79%  
246 4% 75%  
247 4% 71%  
248 4% 67%  
249 2% 63%  
250 3% 60%  
251 5% 57%  
252 2% 51% Median
253 4% 49%  
254 3% 45%  
255 3% 42%  
256 4% 39%  
257 3% 35%  
258 3% 32%  
259 3% 28%  
260 2% 25%  
261 2% 23%  
262 2% 21%  
263 2% 18%  
264 3% 17%  
265 2% 14%  
266 2% 12%  
267 1.3% 10%  
268 1.1% 9%  
269 1.4% 8%  
270 0.9% 6%  
271 1.2% 5%  
272 0.8% 4%  
273 1.0% 3%  
274 0.6% 2%  
275 0.8% 2%  
276 0.3% 1.0%  
277 0.2% 0.7%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.2% 99.4%  
105 0.2% 99.3%  
106 0.3% 99.1%  
107 0.4% 98.7%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 0.9% 97%  
111 1.1% 96%  
112 3% 95%  
113 1.3% 92%  
114 1.4% 91%  
115 3% 89%  
116 5% 86%  
117 3% 81%  
118 4% 79%  
119 5% 75%  
120 5% 70%  
121 3% 65%  
122 6% 62%  
123 3% 56%  
124 4% 53% Median
125 3% 48%  
126 4% 46%  
127 3% 42%  
128 3% 39%  
129 3% 36%  
130 2% 33%  
131 3% 30%  
132 3% 27%  
133 2% 24%  
134 3% 22%  
135 3% 19%  
136 3% 17%  
137 3% 13%  
138 2% 10%  
139 1.1% 8%  
140 1.5% 7%  
141 1.3% 5%  
142 1.4% 4%  
143 0.8% 3%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.2%  
146 0.3% 0.7%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.6%  
50 0.4% 99.4%  
51 0.7% 99.0%  
52 0.6% 98%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 0.7% 96%  
55 0.7% 96%  
56 0.8% 95%  
57 0.9% 94%  
58 1.5% 93%  
59 0.8% 92%  
60 1.1% 91%  
61 2% 90%  
62 3% 88%  
63 6% 85%  
64 15% 79%  
65 10% 64%  
66 10% 54% Median
67 9% 44%  
68 5% 35%  
69 3% 30%  
70 3% 27%  
71 3% 24%  
72 3% 21%  
73 3% 18%  
74 3% 15%  
75 1.3% 12%  
76 2% 11%  
77 2% 8%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.1%  
83 0.1% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 1.2% 94%  
7 8% 92%  
8 3% 84%  
9 5% 81%  
10 5% 76%  
11 7% 70%  
12 9% 63%  
13 8% 55% Median
14 2% 46%  
15 4% 44%  
16 9% 40%  
17 3% 31%  
18 2% 28%  
19 3% 27%  
20 2% 23%  
21 2% 21%  
22 2% 19%  
23 5% 17%  
24 4% 12%  
25 4% 8%  
26 2% 4%  
27 0.6% 2%  
28 0.4% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.9%  
30 0.2% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0.8% 18%  
3 4% 17%  
4 4% 13%  
5 3% 8%  
6 2% 6%  
7 0.8% 4%  
8 0.9% 3%  
9 0.6% 2%  
10 0.5% 2%  
11 0.5% 1.2%  
12 0.3% 0.7%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 252 99.4% 241–267 239–271 236–273 230–277
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 207 0.4% 192–218 188–220 186–223 181–229
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 191 0% 180–205 176–208 174–210 168–215
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 139 0% 126–152 123–154 119–156 114–162
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 124 0% 114–138 112–141 109–143 103–146

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 99.5%  
231 0.2% 99.4% Majority
232 0.2% 99.2%  
233 0.2% 99.1%  
234 0.3% 98.8%  
235 0.5% 98.5% Last Result
236 0.7% 98%  
237 0.9% 97%  
238 0.8% 96%  
239 1.5% 96%  
240 2% 94%  
241 3% 92%  
242 2% 90%  
243 4% 87%  
244 4% 83%  
245 4% 79%  
246 4% 75%  
247 4% 71%  
248 4% 67%  
249 2% 63%  
250 3% 60%  
251 5% 57%  
252 2% 51% Median
253 4% 49%  
254 3% 45%  
255 3% 42%  
256 4% 39%  
257 3% 35%  
258 3% 32%  
259 3% 28%  
260 2% 25%  
261 2% 23%  
262 2% 21%  
263 2% 18%  
264 3% 17%  
265 2% 14%  
266 2% 12%  
267 1.3% 10%  
268 1.1% 9%  
269 1.4% 8%  
270 0.9% 6%  
271 1.2% 5%  
272 0.8% 4%  
273 1.0% 3%  
274 0.6% 2%  
275 0.8% 2%  
276 0.3% 1.0%  
277 0.2% 0.7%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.7%  
181 0.1% 99.6%  
182 0.2% 99.5%  
183 0.3% 99.3%  
184 0.4% 99.0%  
185 1.0% 98.6%  
186 0.7% 98%  
187 1.1% 97%  
188 0.8% 96%  
189 1.2% 95%  
190 1.0% 94%  
191 2% 93%  
192 1.4% 91%  
193 2% 90%  
194 3% 88%  
195 2% 85%  
196 3% 83%  
197 1.5% 81%  
198 2% 79%  
199 2% 77%  
200 3% 75%  
201 3% 73%  
202 4% 69%  
203 4% 65% Median
204 5% 62%  
205 3% 57%  
206 3% 54%  
207 4% 51%  
208 2% 47%  
209 5% 45%  
210 4% 40%  
211 3% 36%  
212 4% 33%  
213 4% 29%  
214 4% 25%  
215 4% 22%  
216 4% 17%  
217 3% 14%  
218 2% 10%  
219 2% 8%  
220 2% 6%  
221 1.1% 4%  
222 0.6% 3%  
223 0.6% 3%  
224 0.5% 2% Last Result
225 0.4% 2%  
226 0.2% 1.2%  
227 0.2% 0.9%  
228 0.1% 0.7%  
229 0.1% 0.6%  
230 0.1% 0.5%  
231 0.1% 0.4% Majority
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0.1% 99.6%  
169 0.2% 99.5%  
170 0.3% 99.3%  
171 0.3% 99.0%  
172 0.4% 98.7%  
173 0.5% 98%  
174 1.0% 98%  
175 0.8% 97%  
176 1.1% 96%  
177 1.1% 95%  
178 1.4% 94%  
179 2% 92%  
180 3% 91%  
181 2% 88%  
182 3% 86%  
183 3% 84%  
184 3% 80%  
185 4% 78%  
186 6% 73%  
187 4% 68%  
188 3% 64%  
189 5% 60%  
190 3% 56% Median
191 4% 53%  
192 4% 49%  
193 3% 45%  
194 3% 42%  
195 3% 39%  
196 3% 36%  
197 2% 33%  
198 4% 31%  
199 4% 27%  
200 2% 24%  
201 3% 22%  
202 2% 18%  
203 2% 16%  
204 2% 14%  
205 2% 12%  
206 2% 10%  
207 2% 8%  
208 1.2% 5%  
209 0.8% 4%  
210 0.9% 3%  
211 0.7% 2%  
212 0.6% 2%  
213 0.3% 1.1%  
214 0.2% 0.7%  
215 0.1% 0.5%  
216 0.1% 0.4%  
217 0.1% 0.3%  
218 0.1% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.7%  
114 0.2% 99.6%  
115 0.2% 99.4%  
116 0.2% 99.1%  
117 0.5% 98.9%  
118 0.4% 98%  
119 0.6% 98%  
120 0.7% 97%  
121 0.5% 97%  
122 0.8% 96%  
123 1.4% 95%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 2% 90%  
127 3% 88%  
128 3% 85%  
129 5% 82%  
130 2% 78%  
131 2% 76%  
132 2% 74%  
133 1.3% 73%  
134 1.3% 71%  
135 3% 70%  
136 3% 67%  
137 5% 63% Median
138 5% 58%  
139 5% 54%  
140 3% 49%  
141 3% 46%  
142 2% 43%  
143 3% 41%  
144 4% 38%  
145 4% 35%  
146 4% 31%  
147 4% 27%  
148 3% 24%  
149 3% 21%  
150 3% 19%  
151 3% 16%  
152 3% 13%  
153 3% 9%  
154 3% 7%  
155 1.0% 4%  
156 0.8% 3%  
157 0.7% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.4%  
159 0.2% 1.0%  
160 0.2% 0.8%  
161 0.1% 0.6%  
162 0.1% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.2% 99.4%  
105 0.2% 99.3%  
106 0.3% 99.1%  
107 0.4% 98.7%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 0.9% 97%  
111 1.1% 96%  
112 3% 95%  
113 1.3% 92%  
114 1.4% 91%  
115 3% 89%  
116 5% 86%  
117 3% 81%  
118 4% 79%  
119 5% 75%  
120 5% 70%  
121 3% 65%  
122 6% 62%  
123 3% 56%  
124 4% 53% Median
125 3% 48%  
126 4% 46%  
127 3% 42%  
128 3% 39%  
129 3% 36%  
130 2% 33%  
131 3% 30%  
132 3% 27%  
133 2% 24%  
134 3% 22%  
135 3% 19%  
136 3% 17%  
137 3% 13%  
138 2% 10%  
139 1.1% 8%  
140 1.5% 7%  
141 1.3% 5%  
142 1.4% 4%  
143 0.8% 3%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.2%  
146 0.3% 0.7%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations