Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wpolityce.pl, 20–25 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 46.9% 44.9–48.9% 44.4–49.5% 43.9–50.0% 42.9–51.0%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 27.8% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.1–30.6% 24.3–31.5%
Lewica 11.7% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.1%
Konfederacja 4.8% 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 247 236–258 233–264 229–267 224–272
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 138 126–148 123–151 121–153 117–157
Lewica 0 50 44–62 42–64 40–64 36–67
Koalicja Polska 58 17 10–26 8–27 7–29 4–34
Konfederacja 0 6 0–14 0–16 0–19 0–24

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.2% 99.6%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0.4% 99.3%  
227 0.4% 98.8%  
228 0.5% 98%  
229 0.4% 98%  
230 0.6% 97%  
231 0.7% 97% Majority
232 0.8% 96%  
233 0.8% 95%  
234 2% 95%  
235 1.4% 92% Last Result
236 1.3% 91%  
237 2% 90%  
238 4% 88%  
239 3% 84%  
240 3% 81%  
241 3% 78%  
242 5% 76%  
243 4% 70%  
244 4% 66%  
245 4% 62%  
246 6% 58%  
247 4% 52% Median
248 5% 48%  
249 4% 43%  
250 4% 39%  
251 4% 35%  
252 5% 30%  
253 3% 26%  
254 4% 23%  
255 3% 19%  
256 3% 16%  
257 2% 13%  
258 2% 12%  
259 1.4% 10%  
260 0.9% 8%  
261 0.8% 7%  
262 0.8% 7%  
263 0.7% 6%  
264 0.8% 5%  
265 0.7% 4%  
266 1.0% 4%  
267 0.4% 3%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.3% 1.3%  
271 0.3% 1.0%  
272 0.2% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.2% 99.5%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.7% 99.1%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 0.7% 98%  
122 1.3% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 2% 90%  
127 1.4% 88%  
128 2% 87%  
129 2% 85%  
130 2% 82%  
131 3% 80%  
132 3% 77%  
133 5% 74%  
134 5% 68%  
135 5% 63%  
136 3% 58%  
137 3% 55%  
138 3% 52% Median
139 3% 49%  
140 3% 46%  
141 4% 43%  
142 5% 39%  
143 4% 34%  
144 3% 30%  
145 6% 27%  
146 4% 22%  
147 5% 17%  
148 3% 13%  
149 2% 9%  
150 2% 7%  
151 1.3% 5%  
152 1.0% 4%  
153 0.9% 3%  
154 0.9% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.1%  
156 0.2% 0.7%  
157 0.2% 0.6%  
158 0.2% 0.3%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.4% 99.5%  
38 0.8% 99.0%  
39 0.5% 98%  
40 0.9% 98%  
41 1.1% 97%  
42 3% 96%  
43 3% 93%  
44 3% 90%  
45 6% 87%  
46 8% 81%  
47 7% 74%  
48 7% 66%  
49 8% 59%  
50 7% 51% Median
51 7% 44%  
52 4% 37%  
53 5% 33%  
54 3% 28%  
55 3% 25%  
56 1.3% 23%  
57 2% 21%  
58 2% 19%  
59 2% 17%  
60 3% 15%  
61 2% 12%  
62 2% 10%  
63 2% 8%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0.2% 99.5%  
6 1.3% 99.3%  
7 2% 98%  
8 2% 96%  
9 2% 94%  
10 4% 92%  
11 7% 88%  
12 11% 82%  
13 5% 70%  
14 5% 66%  
15 5% 61%  
16 5% 56%  
17 6% 51% Median
18 8% 45%  
19 2% 37%  
20 3% 35%  
21 3% 32%  
22 3% 28%  
23 6% 25%  
24 5% 19%  
25 3% 14%  
26 4% 11%  
27 3% 7%  
28 1.5% 4%  
29 0.8% 3%  
30 0.5% 2%  
31 0.3% 1.4%  
32 0.4% 1.1%  
33 0.1% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 0% 90%  
2 11% 90%  
3 9% 79%  
4 9% 69%  
5 10% 60%  
6 7% 50% Median
7 5% 43%  
8 5% 38%  
9 4% 33%  
10 4% 29%  
11 5% 25%  
12 5% 20%  
13 4% 15%  
14 3% 11%  
15 2% 8%  
16 1.4% 6%  
17 1.0% 4%  
18 0.8% 3%  
19 0.7% 3%  
20 0.3% 2%  
21 0.3% 2%  
22 0.6% 1.3%  
23 0.2% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 247 97% 236–258 233–264 229–267 224–272
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 206 0.4% 194–217 189–220 185–223 180–230
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 189 0% 175–201 172–204 170–206 165–210
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 155 0% 144–166 139–170 136–172 130–177
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 138 0% 126–148 123–151 121–153 117–157

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.2% 99.6%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0.4% 99.3%  
227 0.4% 98.8%  
228 0.5% 98%  
229 0.4% 98%  
230 0.6% 97%  
231 0.7% 97% Majority
232 0.8% 96%  
233 0.8% 95%  
234 2% 95%  
235 1.4% 92% Last Result
236 1.3% 91%  
237 2% 90%  
238 4% 88%  
239 3% 84%  
240 3% 81%  
241 3% 78%  
242 5% 76%  
243 4% 70%  
244 4% 66%  
245 4% 62%  
246 6% 58%  
247 4% 52% Median
248 5% 48%  
249 4% 43%  
250 4% 39%  
251 4% 35%  
252 5% 30%  
253 3% 26%  
254 4% 23%  
255 3% 19%  
256 3% 16%  
257 2% 13%  
258 2% 12%  
259 1.4% 10%  
260 0.9% 8%  
261 0.8% 7%  
262 0.8% 7%  
263 0.7% 6%  
264 0.8% 5%  
265 0.7% 4%  
266 1.0% 4%  
267 0.4% 3%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.3% 1.3%  
271 0.3% 1.0%  
272 0.2% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0.2% 99.8%  
180 0.2% 99.6%  
181 0.2% 99.4%  
182 0.3% 99.3%  
183 0.4% 99.0%  
184 0.6% 98.6%  
185 0.7% 98%  
186 0.3% 97%  
187 0.7% 97%  
188 0.8% 96%  
189 0.7% 96%  
190 0.8% 95%  
191 1.1% 94%  
192 0.8% 93%  
193 1.5% 92%  
194 1.5% 91%  
195 2% 89%  
196 2% 87%  
197 2% 85%  
198 2% 83%  
199 4% 81%  
200 2% 77%  
201 4% 75%  
202 3% 71%  
203 5% 68%  
204 5% 63%  
205 5% 58% Median
206 6% 53%  
207 3% 48%  
208 4% 45%  
209 5% 41%  
210 5% 36%  
211 4% 31%  
212 5% 28%  
213 3% 23%  
214 4% 21%  
215 3% 16%  
216 2% 13%  
217 2% 11%  
218 1.5% 9%  
219 1.1% 7%  
220 1.3% 6%  
221 0.9% 5%  
222 0.6% 4%  
223 1.0% 3%  
224 0.3% 2% Last Result
225 0.3% 2%  
226 0.3% 2%  
227 0.2% 1.2%  
228 0.3% 1.0%  
229 0.2% 0.7%  
230 0.2% 0.5%  
231 0.1% 0.4% Majority
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.3% 99.6%  
166 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
167 0.3% 99.1%  
168 0.5% 98.8%  
169 0.6% 98%  
170 0.9% 98%  
171 1.1% 97%  
172 2% 96%  
173 2% 94%  
174 2% 92%  
175 1.4% 91%  
176 2% 89%  
177 2% 88%  
178 2% 86%  
179 2% 84%  
180 2% 82%  
181 3% 80%  
182 3% 77%  
183 4% 75%  
184 3% 70%  
185 3% 67%  
186 3% 64%  
187 4% 61%  
188 4% 57% Median
189 4% 53%  
190 3% 49%  
191 4% 45%  
192 3% 42%  
193 4% 39%  
194 4% 35%  
195 6% 31%  
196 4% 25%  
197 3% 22%  
198 3% 18%  
199 1.5% 15%  
200 3% 14%  
201 2% 11%  
202 2% 9%  
203 2% 7%  
204 1.2% 5%  
205 1.2% 4%  
206 0.6% 3%  
207 0.6% 2%  
208 0.5% 2%  
209 0.3% 1.0%  
210 0.2% 0.7%  
211 0.1% 0.5%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.8%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.2% 99.5%  
131 0.2% 99.3%  
132 0.3% 99.2%  
133 0.4% 98.9%  
134 0.3% 98%  
135 0.5% 98%  
136 0.8% 98%  
137 0.5% 97%  
138 0.7% 96%  
139 1.1% 96%  
140 0.7% 95%  
141 0.8% 94%  
142 1.4% 93%  
143 1.5% 92%  
144 1.2% 90%  
145 2% 89%  
146 3% 87%  
147 3% 85%  
148 3% 82%  
149 2% 79%  
150 3% 77%  
151 3% 73%  
152 5% 70%  
153 6% 65%  
154 5% 59%  
155 4% 53% Median
156 5% 49%  
157 6% 44%  
158 6% 38%  
159 2% 31%  
160 3% 29%  
161 4% 26%  
162 3% 21%  
163 3% 18%  
164 2% 15%  
165 3% 14%  
166 1.4% 10%  
167 1.1% 9%  
168 2% 8%  
169 0.8% 6%  
170 1.5% 6%  
171 0.8% 4%  
172 0.9% 3%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.5% 2%  
175 0.3% 1.4%  
176 0.3% 1.1%  
177 0.3% 0.8%  
178 0.1% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.2% 99.5%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.7% 99.1%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 0.7% 98%  
122 1.3% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 2% 90%  
127 1.4% 88%  
128 2% 87%  
129 2% 85%  
130 2% 82%  
131 3% 80%  
132 3% 77%  
133 5% 74%  
134 5% 68%  
135 5% 63%  
136 3% 58%  
137 3% 55%  
138 3% 52% Median
139 3% 49%  
140 3% 46%  
141 4% 43%  
142 5% 39%  
143 4% 34%  
144 3% 30%  
145 6% 27%  
146 4% 22%  
147 5% 17%  
148 3% 13%  
149 2% 9%  
150 2% 7%  
151 1.3% 5%  
152 1.0% 4%  
153 0.9% 3%  
154 0.9% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.1%  
156 0.2% 0.7%  
157 0.2% 0.6%  
158 0.2% 0.3%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations