Opinion Poll by Kantar Public for TVN, 25–26 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 37.6% | 40.0% | 38.0–42.0% | 37.5–42.6% | 37.0–43.1% | 36.1–44.0% |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 31.7% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.4–31.7% |
| Lewica | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Konfederacja | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| Koalicja Polska | 13.9% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 236 | 222–248 | 219–250 | 216–253 | 210–259 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 153 | 144–165 | 141–169 | 138–172 | 132–177 |
| Lewica | 0 | 43 | 36–51 | 34–54 | 33–56 | 31–61 |
| Konfederacja | 0 | 22 | 12–30 | 10–33 | 8–37 | 5–41 |
| Koalicja Polska | 58 | 8 | 0–14 | 0–17 | 0–20 | 0–25 |
Zjednoczona Prawica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 215 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 217 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 219 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 220 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 221 | 2% | 92% | |
| 222 | 2% | 91% | |
| 223 | 2% | 89% | |
| 224 | 2% | 87% | |
| 225 | 2% | 85% | |
| 226 | 2% | 83% | |
| 227 | 2% | 81% | |
| 228 | 2% | 79% | |
| 229 | 3% | 77% | |
| 230 | 2% | 74% | |
| 231 | 4% | 71% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 68% | |
| 233 | 4% | 65% | |
| 234 | 4% | 61% | |
| 235 | 3% | 56% | Last Result |
| 236 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 237 | 3% | 50% | |
| 238 | 5% | 47% | |
| 239 | 4% | 42% | |
| 240 | 4% | 38% | |
| 241 | 4% | 33% | |
| 242 | 4% | 29% | |
| 243 | 4% | 25% | |
| 244 | 3% | 21% | |
| 245 | 3% | 19% | |
| 246 | 3% | 15% | |
| 247 | 2% | 13% | |
| 248 | 2% | 10% | |
| 249 | 2% | 8% | |
| 250 | 2% | 7% | |
| 251 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 252 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 254 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 255 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 142 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 143 | 2% | 94% | |
| 144 | 2% | 92% | |
| 145 | 3% | 90% | |
| 146 | 3% | 87% | |
| 147 | 3% | 84% | |
| 148 | 5% | 80% | |
| 149 | 6% | 76% | |
| 150 | 5% | 70% | |
| 151 | 7% | 65% | |
| 152 | 7% | 58% | |
| 153 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 45% | |
| 155 | 4% | 40% | |
| 156 | 4% | 36% | |
| 157 | 4% | 31% | |
| 158 | 4% | 27% | |
| 159 | 2% | 24% | |
| 160 | 3% | 21% | |
| 161 | 2% | 19% | |
| 162 | 2% | 16% | |
| 163 | 2% | 14% | |
| 164 | 2% | 12% | |
| 165 | 2% | 11% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 9% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 3% | 97% | |
| 35 | 3% | 94% | |
| 36 | 4% | 90% | |
| 37 | 7% | 86% | |
| 38 | 6% | 79% | |
| 39 | 4% | 73% | |
| 40 | 5% | 69% | |
| 41 | 4% | 64% | |
| 42 | 7% | 59% | |
| 43 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 44 | 9% | 45% | |
| 45 | 7% | 36% | |
| 46 | 5% | 29% | |
| 47 | 4% | 24% | |
| 48 | 3% | 20% | |
| 49 | 3% | 17% | |
| 50 | 2% | 14% | |
| 51 | 3% | 12% | |
| 52 | 2% | 9% | |
| 53 | 2% | 7% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 10 | 2% | 96% | |
| 11 | 3% | 94% | |
| 12 | 4% | 91% | |
| 13 | 3% | 87% | |
| 14 | 3% | 85% | |
| 15 | 4% | 82% | |
| 16 | 3% | 78% | |
| 17 | 4% | 74% | |
| 18 | 4% | 70% | |
| 19 | 5% | 66% | |
| 20 | 4% | 61% | |
| 21 | 4% | 57% | |
| 22 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 23 | 5% | 48% | |
| 24 | 6% | 42% | |
| 25 | 6% | 36% | |
| 26 | 5% | 31% | |
| 27 | 5% | 26% | |
| 28 | 4% | 20% | |
| 29 | 4% | 17% | |
| 30 | 4% | 13% | |
| 31 | 2% | 9% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Polska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 52% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 52% | |
| 8 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 9 | 10% | 47% | |
| 10 | 6% | 37% | |
| 11 | 6% | 31% | |
| 12 | 5% | 25% | |
| 13 | 5% | 20% | |
| 14 | 5% | 15% | |
| 15 | 2% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 8% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 236 | 71% | 222–248 | 219–250 | 216–253 | 210–259 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska | 224 | 203 | 0.3% | 190–216 | 186–220 | 183–223 | 179–229 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica | 166 | 196 | 0% | 185–209 | 182–213 | 179–216 | 174–221 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska | 224 | 159 | 0% | 148–173 | 145–177 | 142–180 | 136–185 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 153 | 0% | 144–165 | 141–169 | 138–172 | 132–177 |
Zjednoczona Prawica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 215 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 217 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 219 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 220 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 221 | 2% | 92% | |
| 222 | 2% | 91% | |
| 223 | 2% | 89% | |
| 224 | 2% | 87% | |
| 225 | 2% | 85% | |
| 226 | 2% | 83% | |
| 227 | 2% | 81% | |
| 228 | 2% | 79% | |
| 229 | 3% | 77% | |
| 230 | 2% | 74% | |
| 231 | 4% | 71% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 68% | |
| 233 | 4% | 65% | |
| 234 | 4% | 61% | |
| 235 | 3% | 56% | Last Result |
| 236 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 237 | 3% | 50% | |
| 238 | 5% | 47% | |
| 239 | 4% | 42% | |
| 240 | 4% | 38% | |
| 241 | 4% | 33% | |
| 242 | 4% | 29% | |
| 243 | 4% | 25% | |
| 244 | 3% | 21% | |
| 245 | 3% | 19% | |
| 246 | 3% | 15% | |
| 247 | 2% | 13% | |
| 248 | 2% | 10% | |
| 249 | 2% | 8% | |
| 250 | 2% | 7% | |
| 251 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 252 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 254 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 255 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 187 | 2% | 95% | |
| 188 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 189 | 2% | 92% | |
| 190 | 2% | 90% | |
| 191 | 2% | 88% | |
| 192 | 2% | 86% | |
| 193 | 3% | 84% | |
| 194 | 3% | 81% | |
| 195 | 4% | 79% | |
| 196 | 4% | 75% | |
| 197 | 3% | 72% | |
| 198 | 3% | 68% | |
| 199 | 4% | 65% | |
| 200 | 4% | 61% | |
| 201 | 3% | 58% | |
| 202 | 4% | 54% | |
| 203 | 4% | 51% | |
| 204 | 3% | 47% | Median |
| 205 | 4% | 43% | |
| 206 | 4% | 39% | |
| 207 | 3% | 36% | |
| 208 | 3% | 32% | |
| 209 | 3% | 29% | |
| 210 | 3% | 26% | |
| 211 | 3% | 24% | |
| 212 | 3% | 21% | |
| 213 | 2% | 18% | |
| 214 | 2% | 16% | |
| 215 | 2% | 13% | |
| 216 | 2% | 11% | |
| 217 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 218 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 219 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 220 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 221 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 223 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 225 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 185 | 2% | 92% | |
| 186 | 2% | 89% | |
| 187 | 3% | 87% | |
| 188 | 3% | 84% | |
| 189 | 3% | 81% | |
| 190 | 3% | 78% | |
| 191 | 5% | 74% | |
| 192 | 4% | 70% | |
| 193 | 5% | 66% | |
| 194 | 4% | 61% | |
| 195 | 5% | 57% | |
| 196 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 197 | 4% | 47% | |
| 198 | 4% | 43% | |
| 199 | 4% | 39% | |
| 200 | 4% | 35% | |
| 201 | 4% | 32% | |
| 202 | 3% | 28% | |
| 203 | 3% | 25% | |
| 204 | 3% | 22% | |
| 205 | 3% | 20% | |
| 206 | 2% | 17% | |
| 207 | 2% | 15% | |
| 208 | 2% | 13% | |
| 209 | 2% | 11% | |
| 210 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 211 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 212 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 213 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 214 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 215 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 217 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 218 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 144 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 146 | 2% | 94% | |
| 147 | 2% | 93% | |
| 148 | 2% | 91% | |
| 149 | 3% | 89% | |
| 150 | 3% | 86% | |
| 151 | 3% | 83% | |
| 152 | 4% | 80% | |
| 153 | 4% | 76% | |
| 154 | 3% | 71% | |
| 155 | 3% | 68% | |
| 156 | 4% | 65% | |
| 157 | 4% | 62% | |
| 158 | 5% | 58% | |
| 159 | 4% | 53% | |
| 160 | 3% | 49% | |
| 161 | 3% | 46% | Median |
| 162 | 4% | 43% | |
| 163 | 4% | 39% | |
| 164 | 4% | 35% | |
| 165 | 4% | 31% | |
| 166 | 3% | 28% | |
| 167 | 3% | 25% | |
| 168 | 2% | 22% | |
| 169 | 2% | 20% | |
| 170 | 3% | 17% | |
| 171 | 2% | 15% | |
| 172 | 2% | 12% | |
| 173 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 175 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 178 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Koalicja Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 142 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 143 | 2% | 94% | |
| 144 | 2% | 92% | |
| 145 | 3% | 90% | |
| 146 | 3% | 87% | |
| 147 | 3% | 84% | |
| 148 | 5% | 80% | |
| 149 | 6% | 76% | |
| 150 | 5% | 70% | |
| 151 | 7% | 65% | |
| 152 | 7% | 58% | |
| 153 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 45% | |
| 155 | 4% | 40% | |
| 156 | 4% | 36% | |
| 157 | 4% | 31% | |
| 158 | 4% | 27% | |
| 159 | 2% | 24% | |
| 160 | 3% | 21% | |
| 161 | 2% | 19% | |
| 162 | 2% | 16% | |
| 163 | 2% | 14% | |
| 164 | 2% | 12% | |
| 165 | 2% | 11% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 9% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Public
- Commissioner(s): TVN
- Fieldwork period: 25–26 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%