Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Onet, 8 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 44.3% 42.4–46.2% 41.8–46.8% 41.4–47.2% 40.5–48.2%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 22.7% 21.2–24.4% 20.7–24.9% 20.3–25.3% 19.6–26.1%
Lewica 11.7% 13.8% 12.6–15.2% 12.2–15.6% 11.9–16.0% 11.3–16.7%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.2% 5.3–7.2% 5.1–7.5% 4.9–7.8% 4.5–8.3%
Konfederacja 4.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.3–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 256 244–270 242–274 239–275 234–281
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 119 110–133 106–136 103–139 98–143
Lewica 0 66 60–76 55–78 53–80 49–84
Koalicja Polska 58 16 8–25 7–27 0–29 0–34
Konfederacja 0 0 0 0 0 0–5

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8% Majority
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0.2% 99.5%  
235 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
236 0.3% 99.2%  
237 0.4% 98.9%  
238 0.5% 98.5%  
239 0.6% 98%  
240 1.0% 97%  
241 1.1% 96%  
242 2% 95%  
243 2% 94%  
244 2% 92%  
245 3% 89%  
246 3% 86%  
247 3% 84%  
248 3% 80%  
249 3% 78%  
250 4% 75%  
251 4% 71%  
252 4% 67%  
253 5% 63%  
254 3% 58%  
255 4% 55%  
256 4% 51% Median
257 3% 48%  
258 3% 44%  
259 3% 41%  
260 3% 38%  
261 3% 35%  
262 4% 32%  
263 3% 28%  
264 3% 25%  
265 2% 23%  
266 3% 20%  
267 2% 18%  
268 2% 16%  
269 2% 13%  
270 2% 11%  
271 2% 10%  
272 2% 8%  
273 1.3% 6%  
274 1.3% 5%  
275 1.3% 4%  
276 0.7% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.3%  
279 0.2% 1.0%  
280 0.2% 0.8%  
281 0.2% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.4% 99.2%  
101 0.4% 98.8%  
102 0.5% 98%  
103 0.7% 98%  
104 0.7% 97%  
105 0.8% 97%  
106 0.9% 96%  
107 1.1% 95%  
108 1.1% 94%  
109 2% 93%  
110 2% 90%  
111 2% 88%  
112 6% 86%  
113 2% 80%  
114 3% 78%  
115 6% 75%  
116 7% 68%  
117 3% 61%  
118 5% 58%  
119 6% 53% Median
120 6% 48%  
121 4% 42%  
122 4% 37%  
123 4% 33%  
124 3% 29%  
125 3% 26%  
126 3% 24%  
127 2% 21%  
128 2% 19%  
129 2% 17%  
130 2% 15%  
131 1.5% 13%  
132 1.2% 12%  
133 2% 10%  
134 2% 9%  
135 1.4% 7%  
136 1.3% 6%  
137 1.0% 4%  
138 0.7% 3%  
139 0.5% 3%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.0%  
143 0.2% 0.7%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.6%  
50 0.4% 99.4%  
51 0.5% 98.9%  
52 0.5% 98%  
53 2% 98%  
54 0.8% 96%  
55 0.8% 96%  
56 0.8% 95%  
57 0.8% 94%  
58 1.5% 93%  
59 1.3% 92%  
60 1.3% 90%  
61 2% 89%  
62 4% 87%  
63 6% 83%  
64 12% 77%  
65 10% 66%  
66 12% 56% Median
67 8% 44%  
68 5% 35%  
69 4% 31%  
70 3% 26%  
71 3% 23%  
72 4% 20%  
73 2% 17%  
74 3% 14%  
75 1.1% 12%  
76 2% 10%  
77 2% 8%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.3% 5%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0.2% 96%  
7 4% 96%  
8 3% 92%  
9 3% 89%  
10 4% 86%  
11 6% 82%  
12 7% 76%  
13 9% 69%  
14 2% 60%  
15 3% 58%  
16 8% 55% Median
17 3% 47%  
18 2% 44%  
19 3% 42%  
20 3% 39%  
21 3% 36%  
22 3% 33%  
23 5% 30%  
24 8% 25%  
25 8% 17%  
26 4% 9%  
27 1.3% 5%  
28 1.0% 4%  
29 0.7% 3%  
30 0.5% 2%  
31 0.4% 2%  
32 0.4% 1.3%  
33 0.3% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.6%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0.2% 1.2%  
4 0.4% 1.0%  
5 0.3% 0.6%  
6 0.1% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 256 99.8% 244–270 242–274 239–275 234–281
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 204 0.2% 190–216 186–218 185–220 179–226
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 186 0% 175–199 172–203 169–206 164–211
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 137 0% 123–150 120–153 117–154 112–159
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 119 0% 110–133 106–136 103–139 98–143

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8% Majority
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0.2% 99.5%  
235 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
236 0.3% 99.2%  
237 0.4% 98.9%  
238 0.5% 98.5%  
239 0.6% 98%  
240 1.0% 97%  
241 1.1% 96%  
242 2% 95%  
243 2% 94%  
244 2% 92%  
245 3% 89%  
246 3% 86%  
247 3% 84%  
248 3% 80%  
249 3% 78%  
250 4% 75%  
251 4% 71%  
252 4% 67%  
253 5% 63%  
254 3% 58%  
255 4% 55%  
256 4% 51% Median
257 3% 48%  
258 3% 44%  
259 3% 41%  
260 3% 38%  
261 3% 35%  
262 4% 32%  
263 3% 28%  
264 3% 25%  
265 2% 23%  
266 3% 20%  
267 2% 18%  
268 2% 16%  
269 2% 13%  
270 2% 11%  
271 2% 10%  
272 2% 8%  
273 1.3% 6%  
274 1.3% 5%  
275 1.3% 4%  
276 0.7% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.3%  
279 0.2% 1.0%  
280 0.2% 0.8%  
281 0.2% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.8%  
179 0.2% 99.6%  
180 0.2% 99.4%  
181 0.2% 99.2%  
182 0.4% 99.0%  
183 0.4% 98.6%  
184 0.7% 98%  
185 1.3% 98%  
186 1.3% 96%  
187 1.3% 95%  
188 2% 94%  
189 2% 92%  
190 2% 90%  
191 2% 89%  
192 2% 86%  
193 2% 84%  
194 3% 82%  
195 2% 79%  
196 3% 77%  
197 3% 74%  
198 4% 72%  
199 3% 68%  
200 3% 65%  
201 3% 62% Median
202 3% 59%  
203 3% 56%  
204 4% 52%  
205 4% 48%  
206 4% 45%  
207 5% 41%  
208 4% 37%  
209 4% 33%  
210 4% 29%  
211 3% 25%  
212 3% 22%  
213 3% 20%  
214 3% 16%  
215 3% 14%  
216 2% 10%  
217 2% 8%  
218 2% 6%  
219 1.1% 5%  
220 1.0% 3%  
221 0.6% 2%  
222 0.5% 2%  
223 0.4% 1.4%  
224 0.3% 1.1% Last Result
225 0.2% 0.8%  
226 0.2% 0.6%  
227 0.1% 0.5%  
228 0.1% 0.4%  
229 0.1% 0.3%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.2% Majority
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.6%  
164 0.2% 99.5%  
165 0.2% 99.3%  
166 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
167 0.4% 98.6%  
168 0.5% 98%  
169 0.7% 98%  
170 0.7% 97%  
171 0.9% 96%  
172 1.3% 95%  
173 1.3% 94%  
174 2% 93%  
175 2% 91%  
176 2% 89%  
177 2% 87%  
178 3% 85%  
179 3% 82%  
180 3% 79%  
181 4% 76%  
182 5% 72%  
183 5% 67%  
184 5% 62%  
185 5% 57% Median
186 6% 52%  
187 4% 46%  
188 4% 41%  
189 4% 37%  
190 3% 34%  
191 3% 30%  
192 3% 27%  
193 2% 24%  
194 2% 21%  
195 2% 19%  
196 1.3% 17%  
197 2% 16%  
198 2% 14%  
199 2% 12%  
200 1.4% 10%  
201 1.3% 9%  
202 1.2% 7%  
203 1.1% 6%  
204 0.9% 5%  
205 0.9% 4%  
206 0.7% 3%  
207 0.7% 2%  
208 0.5% 2%  
209 0.3% 1.3%  
210 0.3% 1.0%  
211 0.2% 0.7%  
212 0.2% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.4%  
114 0.4% 99.1%  
115 0.3% 98.7%  
116 0.5% 98%  
117 0.7% 98%  
118 0.7% 97%  
119 1.1% 97%  
120 1.2% 95%  
121 1.4% 94%  
122 1.3% 93%  
123 2% 92%  
124 3% 90%  
125 3% 87%  
126 2% 84%  
127 2% 82%  
128 3% 79%  
129 3% 76%  
130 3% 73%  
131 3% 70%  
132 3% 67%  
133 2% 64%  
134 4% 62%  
135 4% 58% Median
136 3% 54%  
137 3% 51%  
138 3% 49%  
139 3% 45%  
140 3% 42%  
141 4% 38%  
142 3% 35%  
143 4% 32%  
144 4% 28%  
145 3% 24%  
146 3% 22%  
147 3% 19%  
148 2% 16%  
149 2% 14%  
150 2% 12%  
151 2% 10%  
152 2% 8%  
153 2% 6%  
154 1.4% 4%  
155 0.7% 2%  
156 0.5% 2%  
157 0.3% 1.2%  
158 0.2% 0.9%  
159 0.2% 0.6%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.4% 99.2%  
101 0.4% 98.8%  
102 0.5% 98%  
103 0.7% 98%  
104 0.7% 97%  
105 0.8% 97%  
106 0.9% 96%  
107 1.1% 95%  
108 1.1% 94%  
109 2% 93%  
110 2% 90%  
111 2% 88%  
112 6% 86%  
113 2% 80%  
114 3% 78%  
115 6% 75%  
116 7% 68%  
117 3% 61%  
118 5% 58%  
119 6% 53% Median
120 6% 48%  
121 4% 42%  
122 4% 37%  
123 4% 33%  
124 3% 29%  
125 3% 26%  
126 3% 24%  
127 2% 21%  
128 2% 19%  
129 2% 17%  
130 2% 15%  
131 1.5% 13%  
132 1.2% 12%  
133 2% 10%  
134 2% 9%  
135 1.4% 7%  
136 1.3% 6%  
137 1.0% 4%  
138 0.7% 3%  
139 0.5% 3%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.0%  
143 0.2% 0.7%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations