Opinion Poll by CBOS, 3–10 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 46.0% 44.0–48.0% 43.4–48.6% 43.0–49.1% 42.0–50.1%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 19.0% 17.4–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Lewica 11.7% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Konfederacja 4.8% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 273 262–286 259–290 256–293 249–299
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 99 92–110 90–114 88–117 85–122
Lewica 0 37 32–44 31–46 29–49 26–54
Koalicja Polska 58 34 25–42 23–45 22–46 17–49
Konfederacja 0 15 5–24 0–27 0–27 0–31

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0.2% 99.3%  
252 0.2% 99.1%  
253 0.3% 98.9%  
254 0.5% 98.6%  
255 0.5% 98%  
256 0.6% 98%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.8% 96%  
259 1.2% 95%  
260 2% 94%  
261 1.4% 93%  
262 2% 91%  
263 2% 90%  
264 3% 87%  
265 3% 85%  
266 3% 82%  
267 3% 79%  
268 4% 76%  
269 4% 72%  
270 4% 68%  
271 5% 63%  
272 5% 58%  
273 5% 53% Median
274 5% 48%  
275 4% 44%  
276 4% 39%  
277 4% 36%  
278 3% 32%  
279 3% 28%  
280 3% 25%  
281 3% 22%  
282 2% 19%  
283 2% 17%  
284 2% 15%  
285 2% 13%  
286 2% 11%  
287 1.3% 9%  
288 1.4% 8%  
289 1.0% 6%  
290 0.9% 6%  
291 0.8% 5%  
292 0.8% 4%  
293 0.7% 3%  
294 0.5% 2%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.3%  
297 0.2% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 0.8%  
299 0.2% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.5%  
86 0.6% 99.2%  
87 0.7% 98.6%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 1.1% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 2% 94%  
92 4% 92%  
93 4% 88%  
94 6% 83%  
95 6% 77%  
96 6% 72%  
97 6% 66%  
98 6% 60%  
99 7% 54% Median
100 6% 47%  
101 5% 41%  
102 5% 36%  
103 4% 31%  
104 4% 27%  
105 3% 23%  
106 3% 21%  
107 3% 18%  
108 2% 15%  
109 2% 13%  
110 2% 11%  
111 2% 10%  
112 1.2% 8%  
113 1.1% 7%  
114 1.0% 6%  
115 0.7% 5%  
116 0.8% 4%  
117 0.7% 3%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.4% 2%  
120 0.4% 1.3%  
121 0.2% 0.9%  
122 0.2% 0.7%  
123 0.2% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.7%  
26 0.3% 99.6%  
27 0.4% 99.3%  
28 0.6% 98.9%  
29 0.9% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 3% 96%  
32 8% 93%  
33 10% 86%  
34 8% 75%  
35 6% 68%  
36 7% 61%  
37 8% 54% Median
38 5% 45%  
39 5% 40%  
40 5% 35%  
41 5% 30%  
42 6% 25%  
43 4% 19%  
44 5% 15%  
45 3% 10%  
46 2% 7%  
47 1.3% 5%  
48 0.8% 4%  
49 0.9% 3%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.3% 1.3%  
52 0.2% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.8%  
16 0.1% 99.7%  
17 0.2% 99.6%  
18 0.4% 99.3%  
19 0.3% 99.0%  
20 0.5% 98.7%  
21 0.6% 98%  
22 1.0% 98%  
23 2% 97%  
24 2% 95%  
25 3% 93%  
26 4% 90%  
27 5% 86%  
28 3% 81%  
29 3% 78%  
30 2% 75%  
31 5% 73%  
32 7% 68%  
33 7% 61%  
34 6% 54% Median
35 6% 48%  
36 5% 43%  
37 5% 37%  
38 8% 32%  
39 6% 24%  
40 4% 18%  
41 3% 15%  
42 2% 11%  
43 2% 9%  
44 2% 7%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.5% 4%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0.5% 93%  
4 1.5% 93%  
5 3% 91%  
6 3% 88%  
7 3% 85%  
8 3% 82%  
9 3% 79%  
10 4% 76%  
11 5% 72%  
12 6% 67%  
13 6% 61%  
14 5% 55%  
15 4% 50% Median
16 5% 46%  
17 5% 42%  
18 5% 37%  
19 6% 32%  
20 5% 26%  
21 4% 21%  
22 3% 17%  
23 2% 14%  
24 2% 12%  
25 2% 10%  
26 2% 8%  
27 3% 6%  
28 1.0% 2%  
29 0.5% 1.5%  
30 0.3% 1.0%  
31 0.2% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 273 100% 262–286 259–290 256–293 249–299
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 172 0% 160–184 156–188 154–190 149–196
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 137 0% 127–149 125–153 122–156 118–161
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 134 0% 123–145 120–149 118–152 113–158
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 99 0% 92–110 90–114 88–117 85–122

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100% Last Result
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0.2% 99.3%  
252 0.2% 99.1%  
253 0.3% 98.9%  
254 0.5% 98.6%  
255 0.5% 98%  
256 0.6% 98%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.8% 96%  
259 1.2% 95%  
260 2% 94%  
261 1.4% 93%  
262 2% 91%  
263 2% 90%  
264 3% 87%  
265 3% 85%  
266 3% 82%  
267 3% 79%  
268 4% 76%  
269 4% 72%  
270 4% 68%  
271 5% 63%  
272 5% 58%  
273 5% 53% Median
274 5% 48%  
275 4% 44%  
276 4% 39%  
277 4% 36%  
278 3% 32%  
279 3% 28%  
280 3% 25%  
281 3% 22%  
282 2% 19%  
283 2% 17%  
284 2% 15%  
285 2% 13%  
286 2% 11%  
287 1.3% 9%  
288 1.4% 8%  
289 1.0% 6%  
290 0.9% 6%  
291 0.8% 5%  
292 0.8% 4%  
293 0.7% 3%  
294 0.5% 2%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.3%  
297 0.2% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 0.8%  
299 0.2% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.2% 99.3%  
151 0.3% 99.1%  
152 0.5% 98.7%  
153 0.5% 98%  
154 0.8% 98%  
155 0.9% 97%  
156 1.2% 96%  
157 1.4% 95%  
158 1.3% 94%  
159 2% 92%  
160 2% 90%  
161 2% 88%  
162 3% 86%  
163 3% 83%  
164 3% 80%  
165 3% 77%  
166 4% 73%  
167 3% 70%  
168 4% 66%  
169 4% 62%  
170 4% 58% Median
171 4% 54%  
172 3% 50%  
173 4% 47%  
174 4% 43%  
175 4% 39%  
176 4% 35%  
177 3% 31%  
178 3% 28%  
179 3% 25%  
180 3% 22%  
181 3% 19%  
182 3% 16%  
183 2% 13%  
184 2% 11%  
185 2% 9%  
186 1.4% 8%  
187 1.2% 6%  
188 1.2% 5%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.4%  
194 0.3% 1.1%  
195 0.2% 0.8%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.5% 99.1%  
121 0.5% 98.7%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 0.9% 97%  
124 1.2% 97%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 94%  
127 3% 92%  
128 3% 89%  
129 3% 86%  
130 4% 83%  
131 4% 79%  
132 4% 76%  
133 4% 72%  
134 5% 68%  
135 5% 63%  
136 4% 58% Median
137 5% 54%  
138 5% 48%  
139 4% 44%  
140 3% 39%  
141 4% 36%  
142 4% 33%  
143 4% 29%  
144 4% 25%  
145 3% 21%  
146 3% 18%  
147 2% 15%  
148 2% 13%  
149 2% 11%  
150 2% 9%  
151 1.4% 8%  
152 1.0% 6%  
153 1.1% 5%  
154 0.9% 4%  
155 0.6% 3%  
156 0.5% 3%  
157 0.5% 2%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.2%  
160 0.2% 0.9%  
161 0.2% 0.7%  
162 0.1% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1% Last Result
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.2% 99.4%  
115 0.3% 99.2%  
116 0.5% 98.9%  
117 0.7% 98%  
118 1.0% 98%  
119 1.1% 97%  
120 1.5% 96%  
121 2% 94%  
122 2% 93%  
123 2% 91%  
124 3% 89%  
125 3% 86%  
126 3% 83%  
127 3% 80%  
128 4% 77%  
129 4% 73%  
130 4% 69%  
131 5% 65%  
132 4% 60%  
133 5% 56% Median
134 4% 51%  
135 4% 47%  
136 4% 43%  
137 5% 39%  
138 5% 34%  
139 3% 30%  
140 4% 26%  
141 3% 22%  
142 3% 19%  
143 2% 17%  
144 2% 14%  
145 2% 12%  
146 1.5% 10%  
147 2% 8%  
148 1.3% 7%  
149 1.1% 6%  
150 0.8% 4%  
151 0.7% 4%  
152 0.6% 3%  
153 0.5% 2%  
154 0.4% 2%  
155 0.3% 1.4%  
156 0.3% 1.1%  
157 0.2% 0.8%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.5%  
86 0.6% 99.2%  
87 0.7% 98.6%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 1.1% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 2% 94%  
92 4% 92%  
93 4% 88%  
94 6% 83%  
95 6% 77%  
96 6% 72%  
97 6% 66%  
98 6% 60%  
99 7% 54% Median
100 6% 47%  
101 5% 41%  
102 5% 36%  
103 4% 31%  
104 4% 27%  
105 3% 23%  
106 3% 21%  
107 3% 18%  
108 2% 15%  
109 2% 13%  
110 2% 11%  
111 2% 10%  
112 1.2% 8%  
113 1.1% 7%  
114 1.0% 6%  
115 0.7% 5%  
116 0.8% 4%  
117 0.7% 3%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.4% 2%  
120 0.4% 1.3%  
121 0.2% 0.9%  
122 0.2% 0.7%  
123 0.2% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations