Opinion Poll by Estymator for DoRzeczy.pl, 9–10 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 48.2% 46.2–50.2% 45.6–50.8% 45.1–51.3% 44.1–52.2%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.7% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Lewica 11.7% 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.8% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Konfederacja 4.8% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 255 243–270 241–273 239–275 233–280
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 122 114–136 110–140 107–142 101–146
Lewica 0 63 51–68 49–72 48–74 44–79
Koalicja Polska 58 17 9–25 7–27 6–29 0–34
Konfederacja 0 0 0–5 0–8 0–11 0–14

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8% Majority
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0.2% 99.5%  
235 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
236 0.3% 99.1%  
237 0.4% 98.8%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 0.9% 98%  
240 0.9% 97%  
241 1.3% 96%  
242 2% 95%  
243 3% 93%  
244 3% 90%  
245 3% 87%  
246 3% 84%  
247 4% 80%  
248 3% 77%  
249 3% 74%  
250 4% 71%  
251 4% 67%  
252 3% 63%  
253 4% 59%  
254 4% 55%  
255 4% 52% Median
256 3% 48%  
257 3% 45%  
258 4% 42%  
259 3% 38%  
260 3% 35%  
261 3% 33%  
262 3% 30%  
263 3% 28%  
264 3% 25%  
265 2% 22%  
266 2% 20%  
267 2% 17%  
268 2% 15%  
269 2% 13%  
270 2% 11%  
271 2% 9%  
272 2% 8%  
273 1.2% 6%  
274 1.4% 5%  
275 1.3% 4%  
276 0.7% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.3% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.8%  
280 0.2% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.2% 99.6%  
102 0.2% 99.4%  
103 0.3% 99.2%  
104 0.3% 98.9%  
105 0.3% 98.5%  
106 0.3% 98%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 0.7% 97%  
109 0.9% 97%  
110 1.0% 96%  
111 1.3% 95%  
112 2% 93%  
113 1.1% 92%  
114 2% 90%  
115 5% 88%  
116 6% 84%  
117 3% 78%  
118 4% 75%  
119 5% 71%  
120 5% 65%  
121 6% 60%  
122 5% 55% Median
123 4% 50%  
124 4% 46%  
125 4% 42%  
126 4% 38%  
127 3% 34%  
128 3% 31%  
129 3% 29%  
130 3% 25%  
131 2% 23%  
132 2% 20%  
133 2% 18%  
134 3% 16%  
135 2% 13%  
136 2% 11%  
137 2% 10%  
138 2% 8%  
139 1.1% 6%  
140 1.1% 5%  
141 1.2% 4%  
142 0.7% 3%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.3% 1.1%  
146 0.3% 0.8%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.3% 99.6%  
45 0.3% 99.3%  
46 0.4% 99.1%  
47 1.1% 98.6%  
48 1.3% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 3% 94%  
51 3% 92%  
52 3% 89%  
53 4% 85%  
54 2% 82%  
55 2% 80%  
56 2% 77%  
57 2% 75%  
58 2% 73%  
59 2% 70%  
60 3% 68%  
61 3% 65%  
62 6% 62%  
63 9% 56% Median
64 15% 47%  
65 9% 32%  
66 6% 23%  
67 5% 17%  
68 3% 12%  
69 2% 9%  
70 1.4% 8%  
71 1.2% 6%  
72 1.3% 5%  
73 1.0% 4%  
74 0.7% 3%  
75 0.3% 2%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 0% 99.3%  
5 0.4% 99.3%  
6 2% 98.9%  
7 4% 97%  
8 2% 93%  
9 3% 91%  
10 4% 88%  
11 5% 83%  
12 7% 78%  
13 7% 71%  
14 2% 64%  
15 3% 62%  
16 9% 59%  
17 5% 50% Median
18 4% 45%  
19 3% 41%  
20 3% 38%  
21 4% 36%  
22 3% 32%  
23 5% 29%  
24 6% 23%  
25 8% 17%  
26 4% 9%  
27 1.4% 6%  
28 1.3% 4%  
29 0.7% 3%  
30 0.5% 2%  
31 0.4% 2%  
32 0.3% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 45%  
2 15% 45%  
3 9% 29%  
4 6% 21%  
5 5% 15%  
6 3% 10%  
7 1.1% 7%  
8 1.3% 6%  
9 1.0% 4%  
10 0.8% 3%  
11 0.8% 3%  
12 0.7% 2%  
13 0.4% 1.1%  
14 0.3% 0.7%  
15 0.2% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 255 99.8% 243–270 241–273 239–275 233–280
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 203 0.1% 188–215 185–217 183–219 178–224
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 185 0% 172–198 169–202 167–204 161–209
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 141 0% 127–153 124–156 121–158 115–163
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 122 0% 114–136 110–140 107–142 101–146

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8% Majority
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0.2% 99.5%  
235 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
236 0.3% 99.1%  
237 0.4% 98.8%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 0.9% 98%  
240 0.9% 97%  
241 1.3% 96%  
242 2% 95%  
243 3% 93%  
244 3% 90%  
245 3% 87%  
246 3% 84%  
247 4% 80%  
248 3% 77%  
249 3% 74%  
250 4% 71%  
251 4% 67%  
252 3% 63%  
253 4% 59%  
254 4% 55%  
255 4% 52% Median
256 3% 48%  
257 3% 45%  
258 4% 42%  
259 3% 38%  
260 3% 35%  
261 3% 33%  
262 3% 30%  
263 3% 28%  
264 3% 25%  
265 2% 22%  
266 2% 20%  
267 2% 17%  
268 2% 15%  
269 2% 13%  
270 2% 11%  
271 2% 9%  
272 2% 8%  
273 1.2% 6%  
274 1.4% 5%  
275 1.3% 4%  
276 0.7% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.3% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.8%  
280 0.2% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.7%  
178 0.2% 99.6%  
179 0.3% 99.4%  
180 0.3% 99.1%  
181 0.4% 98.8%  
182 0.8% 98%  
183 1.2% 98%  
184 1.2% 96%  
185 1.4% 95%  
186 1.5% 94%  
187 1.4% 92%  
188 2% 91%  
189 2% 89%  
190 2% 87%  
191 2% 85%  
192 2% 83%  
193 2% 80%  
194 2% 78%  
195 3% 76%  
196 3% 73%  
197 3% 70%  
198 3% 67%  
199 2% 64%  
200 3% 62%  
201 4% 59%  
202 3% 55% Median
203 3% 52%  
204 5% 49%  
205 3% 44%  
206 3% 41%  
207 4% 38%  
208 4% 34%  
209 3% 30%  
210 4% 27%  
211 3% 23%  
212 3% 20%  
213 4% 18%  
214 3% 14%  
215 3% 11%  
216 2% 8%  
217 2% 6%  
218 1.2% 4%  
219 0.8% 3%  
220 0.5% 2%  
221 0.4% 2%  
222 0.3% 1.1%  
223 0.2% 0.8%  
224 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
225 0.1% 0.5%  
226 0.1% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.3%  
228 0.1% 0.2%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1% Majority
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.3% 99.3%  
164 0.3% 99.0%  
165 0.5% 98.7%  
166 0.6% 98% Last Result
167 0.8% 98%  
168 1.0% 97%  
169 0.9% 96%  
170 1.3% 95%  
171 2% 94%  
172 2% 92%  
173 3% 89%  
174 3% 87%  
175 3% 84%  
176 2% 82%  
177 2% 79%  
178 3% 77%  
179 3% 74%  
180 3% 71%  
181 4% 68%  
182 3% 64%  
183 5% 61%  
184 4% 55%  
185 5% 51% Median
186 5% 46%  
187 4% 42%  
188 3% 38%  
189 4% 35%  
190 3% 30%  
191 3% 27%  
192 3% 25%  
193 2% 22%  
194 2% 20%  
195 2% 18%  
196 2% 16%  
197 2% 15%  
198 3% 12%  
199 2% 10%  
200 1.1% 8%  
201 1.5% 7%  
202 1.2% 5%  
203 1.1% 4%  
204 0.8% 3%  
205 0.8% 2%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.4% 1.1%  
208 0.2% 0.7%  
209 0.2% 0.6%  
210 0.1% 0.4%  
211 0.1% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.2% 99.5%  
117 0.2% 99.3%  
118 0.3% 99.1%  
119 0.5% 98.8%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 0.5% 97%  
123 0.8% 97%  
124 1.1% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 1.5% 91%  
128 3% 90%  
129 2% 87%  
130 2% 85%  
131 3% 83%  
132 2% 80%  
133 3% 78%  
134 2% 75%  
135 2% 72%  
136 3% 70%  
137 3% 67%  
138 3% 64%  
139 4% 61% Median
140 4% 57%  
141 4% 53%  
142 4% 50%  
143 4% 46%  
144 4% 42%  
145 3% 38%  
146 4% 36%  
147 4% 32%  
148 3% 29%  
149 3% 26%  
150 4% 23%  
151 3% 19%  
152 3% 15%  
153 3% 12%  
154 2% 9%  
155 2% 7%  
156 1.2% 5%  
157 1.0% 4%  
158 0.7% 3%  
159 0.5% 2%  
160 0.4% 2%  
161 0.3% 1.2%  
162 0.3% 0.9%  
163 0.2% 0.7%  
164 0.1% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.2% 99.6%  
102 0.2% 99.4%  
103 0.3% 99.2%  
104 0.3% 98.9%  
105 0.3% 98.5%  
106 0.3% 98%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 0.7% 97%  
109 0.9% 97%  
110 1.0% 96%  
111 1.3% 95%  
112 2% 93%  
113 1.1% 92%  
114 2% 90%  
115 5% 88%  
116 6% 84%  
117 3% 78%  
118 4% 75%  
119 5% 71%  
120 5% 65%  
121 6% 60%  
122 5% 55% Median
123 4% 50%  
124 4% 46%  
125 4% 42%  
126 4% 38%  
127 3% 34%  
128 3% 31%  
129 3% 29%  
130 3% 25%  
131 2% 23%  
132 2% 20%  
133 2% 18%  
134 3% 16%  
135 2% 13%  
136 2% 11%  
137 2% 10%  
138 2% 8%  
139 1.1% 6%  
140 1.1% 5%  
141 1.2% 4%  
142 0.7% 3%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.3% 1.1%  
146 0.3% 0.8%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations