Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wpolityce.pl, 4–10 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 47.3% 45.3–49.3% 44.7–49.9% 44.2–50.4% 43.3–51.3%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 24.3% 22.7–26.1% 22.2–26.6% 21.8–27.1% 21.0–28.0%
Lewica 11.7% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.1–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.1% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Konfederacja 4.8% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 250 238–264 235–268 232–271 226–276
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 116 104–128 101–132 99–134 97–140
Lewica 0 73 65–82 63–84 62–86 55–90
Koalicja Polska 58 11 6–20 0–23 0–25 0–28
Konfederacja 0 8 2–15 0–18 0–21 0–26

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.5%  
227 0.2% 99.3%  
228 0.2% 99.2%  
229 0.2% 99.0%  
230 0.5% 98.8%  
231 0.6% 98% Majority
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.8% 97%  
234 1.0% 96%  
235 2% 95% Last Result
236 1.1% 94%  
237 2% 93%  
238 1.4% 91%  
239 3% 90%  
240 2% 87%  
241 3% 85%  
242 4% 82%  
243 3% 78%  
244 4% 75%  
245 4% 71%  
246 4% 67%  
247 4% 64%  
248 3% 60%  
249 4% 57%  
250 4% 53% Median
251 4% 49%  
252 5% 45%  
253 4% 40%  
254 3% 36%  
255 3% 33%  
256 3% 30%  
257 3% 26%  
258 3% 23%  
259 3% 20%  
260 1.3% 17%  
261 2% 16%  
262 2% 14%  
263 1.3% 12%  
264 1.1% 10%  
265 2% 9%  
266 1.1% 7%  
267 0.7% 6%  
268 0.7% 5%  
269 0.9% 5%  
270 1.0% 4%  
271 0.9% 3%  
272 0.4% 2%  
273 0.3% 1.3%  
274 0.3% 1.0%  
275 0.2% 0.7%  
276 0.2% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0.1% 0.2%  
279 0.1% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.6% 99.5%  
98 1.1% 98.9%  
99 1.2% 98%  
100 1.0% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 2% 94%  
103 1.3% 92%  
104 3% 91%  
105 1.4% 88%  
106 3% 87%  
107 3% 85%  
108 3% 82%  
109 3% 79%  
110 3% 76%  
111 3% 73%  
112 4% 69%  
113 4% 65%  
114 5% 61%  
115 4% 56%  
116 3% 52% Median
117 2% 50%  
118 3% 47%  
119 6% 44%  
120 3% 38%  
121 3% 35%  
122 4% 32%  
123 3% 28%  
124 4% 25%  
125 3% 21%  
126 2% 17%  
127 2% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 1.1% 10%  
130 2% 9%  
131 1.2% 7%  
132 2% 5%  
133 0.7% 4%  
134 0.6% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.3% 1.4%  
138 0.4% 1.1%  
139 0.2% 0.7%  
140 0.2% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 0.2% 99.4%  
57 0.2% 99.2%  
58 0.2% 99.0%  
59 0.3% 98.8%  
60 0.6% 98.6%  
61 0.4% 98%  
62 1.0% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 4% 95%  
65 7% 91%  
66 4% 84%  
67 5% 80%  
68 5% 75%  
69 3% 70%  
70 3% 66%  
71 4% 64%  
72 4% 60%  
73 8% 56% Median
74 5% 48%  
75 4% 43%  
76 8% 39%  
77 6% 30%  
78 4% 24%  
79 3% 20%  
80 3% 17%  
81 4% 14%  
82 3% 10%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.2% 4%  
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.3% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0.2% 95%  
5 2% 95%  
6 4% 93%  
7 14% 89%  
8 6% 75%  
9 7% 69%  
10 9% 62%  
11 6% 54% Median
12 7% 48%  
13 8% 41%  
14 3% 34%  
15 4% 30%  
16 4% 27%  
17 3% 22%  
18 3% 20%  
19 3% 16%  
20 3% 13%  
21 2% 10%  
22 2% 8%  
23 2% 6%  
24 2% 4%  
25 0.8% 3%  
26 0.8% 2%  
27 0.4% 1.0%  
28 0.3% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 5% 93%  
3 13% 88%  
4 6% 75%  
5 5% 69%  
6 9% 63%  
7 4% 54%  
8 6% 50% Median
9 3% 44%  
10 8% 41%  
11 8% 33%  
12 4% 25%  
13 4% 21%  
14 4% 17%  
15 4% 12%  
16 2% 8%  
17 0.7% 6%  
18 0.8% 5%  
19 1.0% 5%  
20 1.0% 4%  
21 0.3% 3%  
22 0.4% 2%  
23 0.4% 2%  
24 0.4% 1.4%  
25 0.3% 1.1%  
26 0.4% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 250 98% 238–264 235–268 232–271 226–276
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 202 0.1% 188–214 184–217 181–220 176–227
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 189 0% 177–202 173–206 170–209 165–213
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 129 0% 115–142 112–145 109–148 105–153
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 116 0% 104–128 101–132 99–134 97–140

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.5%  
227 0.2% 99.3%  
228 0.2% 99.2%  
229 0.2% 99.0%  
230 0.5% 98.8%  
231 0.6% 98% Majority
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.8% 97%  
234 1.0% 96%  
235 2% 95% Last Result
236 1.1% 94%  
237 2% 93%  
238 1.4% 91%  
239 3% 90%  
240 2% 87%  
241 3% 85%  
242 4% 82%  
243 3% 78%  
244 4% 75%  
245 4% 71%  
246 4% 67%  
247 4% 64%  
248 3% 60%  
249 4% 57%  
250 4% 53% Median
251 4% 49%  
252 5% 45%  
253 4% 40%  
254 3% 36%  
255 3% 33%  
256 3% 30%  
257 3% 26%  
258 3% 23%  
259 3% 20%  
260 1.3% 17%  
261 2% 16%  
262 2% 14%  
263 1.3% 12%  
264 1.1% 10%  
265 2% 9%  
266 1.1% 7%  
267 0.7% 6%  
268 0.7% 5%  
269 0.9% 5%  
270 1.0% 4%  
271 0.9% 3%  
272 0.4% 2%  
273 0.3% 1.3%  
274 0.3% 1.0%  
275 0.2% 0.7%  
276 0.2% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0.1% 0.2%  
279 0.1% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.2% 99.7%  
176 0.2% 99.6%  
177 0.2% 99.4%  
178 0.2% 99.2%  
179 0.4% 99.0%  
180 0.6% 98.6%  
181 0.7% 98%  
182 0.7% 97%  
183 0.9% 97%  
184 1.3% 96%  
185 1.1% 94%  
186 1.3% 93%  
187 1.4% 92%  
188 0.9% 91%  
189 2% 90%  
190 2% 87%  
191 2% 85%  
192 2% 83%  
193 3% 81%  
194 3% 78%  
195 3% 75%  
196 3% 72%  
197 3% 69%  
198 3% 66%  
199 3% 63%  
200 5% 60% Median
201 5% 56%  
202 3% 51%  
203 4% 48%  
204 5% 44%  
205 3% 39%  
206 4% 35%  
207 4% 31%  
208 3% 27%  
209 2% 24%  
210 2% 22%  
211 4% 20%  
212 3% 16%  
213 2% 13%  
214 1.5% 11%  
215 2% 10%  
216 1.2% 7%  
217 1.3% 6%  
218 1.4% 5%  
219 0.6% 3%  
220 0.6% 3%  
221 0.5% 2%  
222 0.5% 2%  
223 0.3% 1.4%  
224 0.3% 1.1% Last Result
225 0.2% 0.8%  
226 0.1% 0.6%  
227 0.2% 0.5%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1% Majority
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.8%  
165 0.2% 99.7%  
166 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
167 0.3% 99.2%  
168 0.5% 98.9%  
169 0.5% 98%  
170 0.6% 98%  
171 0.5% 97%  
172 1.0% 97%  
173 0.9% 96%  
174 1.2% 95%  
175 1.2% 94%  
176 2% 92%  
177 2% 90%  
178 2% 89%  
179 3% 87%  
180 3% 84%  
181 2% 81%  
182 3% 79%  
183 5% 77%  
184 5% 72%  
185 3% 67%  
186 3% 64%  
187 4% 61%  
188 3% 57%  
189 4% 54% Median
190 3% 49%  
191 4% 47%  
192 5% 42%  
193 3% 37%  
194 3% 34%  
195 3% 32%  
196 4% 28%  
197 3% 25%  
198 3% 21%  
199 2% 18%  
200 3% 16%  
201 1.2% 13%  
202 2% 11%  
203 1.4% 9%  
204 2% 8%  
205 1.1% 6%  
206 1.0% 5%  
207 0.7% 4%  
208 1.0% 4%  
209 0.8% 3%  
210 0.5% 2%  
211 0.3% 1.2%  
212 0.3% 0.8%  
213 0.1% 0.6%  
214 0.1% 0.4%  
215 0.1% 0.3%  
216 0.1% 0.2%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.1% 99.5%  
106 0.5% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 98.9%  
108 0.5% 98%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 0.9% 97%  
111 1.0% 96%  
112 1.3% 95%  
113 2% 94%  
114 2% 92%  
115 1.2% 90%  
116 2% 89%  
117 3% 87%  
118 2% 84%  
119 2% 82%  
120 3% 80%  
121 3% 77%  
122 4% 75%  
123 4% 70%  
124 3% 66%  
125 4% 64%  
126 2% 59%  
127 3% 57% Median
128 4% 54%  
129 4% 51%  
130 3% 47%  
131 5% 44%  
132 3% 39%  
133 4% 36%  
134 4% 33%  
135 5% 29%  
136 2% 24%  
137 3% 22%  
138 2% 20%  
139 2% 18%  
140 2% 15%  
141 2% 13%  
142 2% 11%  
143 2% 9%  
144 1.2% 7%  
145 1.2% 6%  
146 1.1% 5%  
147 0.6% 4%  
148 0.8% 3%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.4% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.3%  
152 0.3% 0.9%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.4%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.6% 99.5%  
98 1.1% 98.9%  
99 1.2% 98%  
100 1.0% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 2% 94%  
103 1.3% 92%  
104 3% 91%  
105 1.4% 88%  
106 3% 87%  
107 3% 85%  
108 3% 82%  
109 3% 79%  
110 3% 76%  
111 3% 73%  
112 4% 69%  
113 4% 65%  
114 5% 61%  
115 4% 56%  
116 3% 52% Median
117 2% 50%  
118 3% 47%  
119 6% 44%  
120 3% 38%  
121 3% 35%  
122 4% 32%  
123 3% 28%  
124 4% 25%  
125 3% 21%  
126 2% 17%  
127 2% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 1.1% 10%  
130 2% 9%  
131 1.2% 7%  
132 2% 5%  
133 0.7% 4%  
134 0.6% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.3% 1.4%  
138 0.4% 1.1%  
139 0.2% 0.7%  
140 0.2% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations