Opinion Poll by IBRiS for RMF, 11 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 42.0% 40.1–43.9% 39.6–44.5% 39.1–44.9% 38.2–45.9%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 22.3% 20.7–23.9% 20.3–24.4% 19.9–24.8% 19.2–25.7%
Lewica 11.7% 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.5–16.9%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 5.9% 5.1–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.7–7.5% 4.3–8.0%
Konfederacja 4.8% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 250 238–263 235–268 232–271 225–276
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 121 110–134 107–137 103–140 98–144
Lewica 0 69 63–79 61–81 58–84 51–87
Koalicja Polska 58 15 7–25 0–26 0–28 0–33
Konfederacja 0 0 0–10 0–12 0–14 0–18

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.7%  
225 0.1% 99.6%  
226 0.2% 99.4%  
227 0.2% 99.2%  
228 0.3% 99.0%  
229 0.3% 98.7%  
230 0.4% 98%  
231 0.4% 98% Majority
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.9% 97%  
234 1.0% 96%  
235 1.2% 95% Last Result
236 2% 94%  
237 2% 92%  
238 2% 91%  
239 2% 89%  
240 3% 87%  
241 3% 84%  
242 4% 82%  
243 3% 78%  
244 4% 75%  
245 4% 71%  
246 5% 67%  
247 3% 61%  
248 4% 58%  
249 3% 54%  
250 4% 51% Median
251 5% 47%  
252 4% 42%  
253 4% 38%  
254 3% 34%  
255 3% 31%  
256 3% 28%  
257 3% 25%  
258 3% 23%  
259 2% 20%  
260 2% 18%  
261 2% 16%  
262 2% 13%  
263 2% 12%  
264 1.5% 10%  
265 1.1% 9%  
266 1.0% 7%  
267 1.1% 6%  
268 0.9% 5%  
269 0.9% 4%  
270 0.5% 3%  
271 0.7% 3%  
272 0.4% 2%  
273 0.5% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.3%  
275 0.4% 1.0%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.3% 99.2%  
101 0.4% 98.8%  
102 0.5% 98%  
103 0.6% 98%  
104 0.8% 97%  
105 0.7% 97%  
106 0.9% 96%  
107 1.3% 95%  
108 1.2% 94%  
109 1.5% 93%  
110 2% 91%  
111 2% 89%  
112 5% 87%  
113 3% 82%  
114 3% 80%  
115 4% 76%  
116 5% 72%  
117 2% 67%  
118 4% 65%  
119 5% 61%  
120 4% 56%  
121 3% 52% Median
122 5% 48%  
123 4% 43%  
124 4% 40%  
125 3% 35%  
126 4% 32%  
127 3% 29%  
128 3% 25%  
129 3% 23%  
130 3% 20%  
131 2% 17%  
132 2% 15%  
133 2% 13%  
134 2% 11%  
135 1.2% 9%  
136 2% 8%  
137 1.2% 6%  
138 1.3% 5%  
139 0.7% 4%  
140 0.9% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.4%  
143 0.5% 1.0%  
144 0.1% 0.5%  
145 0.2% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.2% 99.7%  
52 0.2% 99.5%  
53 0.4% 99.3%  
54 0.3% 98.9%  
55 0.3% 98.7%  
56 0.3% 98%  
57 0.4% 98%  
58 0.6% 98%  
59 0.5% 97%  
60 0.7% 97%  
61 1.0% 96%  
62 2% 95%  
63 3% 93%  
64 9% 90%  
65 9% 81%  
66 8% 72%  
67 7% 64%  
68 6% 57%  
69 4% 52% Median
70 4% 47%  
71 4% 43%  
72 4% 39%  
73 5% 35%  
74 4% 30%  
75 3% 27%  
76 4% 24%  
77 4% 20%  
78 3% 15%  
79 3% 12%  
80 2% 9%  
81 2% 7%  
82 1.3% 5%  
83 0.9% 4%  
84 0.8% 3%  
85 0.6% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.4%  
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 2% 92%  
8 2% 89%  
9 4% 87%  
10 4% 83%  
11 7% 79%  
12 6% 72%  
13 10% 66%  
14 3% 56%  
15 5% 53% Median
16 6% 48%  
17 3% 42%  
18 2% 39%  
19 3% 36%  
20 4% 33%  
21 3% 30%  
22 4% 26%  
23 5% 22%  
24 6% 17%  
25 4% 11%  
26 3% 7%  
27 1.3% 4%  
28 0.9% 3%  
29 0.6% 2%  
30 0.4% 2%  
31 0.3% 1.2%  
32 0.3% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 1.1% 36%  
4 4% 35%  
5 6% 31%  
6 5% 25%  
7 3% 20%  
8 3% 17%  
9 2% 14%  
10 3% 12%  
11 3% 9%  
12 2% 6%  
13 1.4% 4%  
14 1.0% 3%  
15 0.8% 2%  
16 0.3% 1.1%  
17 0.2% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 250 98% 238–263 235–268 232–271 225–276
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 208 0.8% 193–219 189–222 186–225 180–232
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 191 0% 180–205 176–208 173–211 167–216
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 137 0% 123–151 119–153 116–155 110–160
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 121 0% 110–134 107–137 103–140 98–144

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.7%  
225 0.1% 99.6%  
226 0.2% 99.4%  
227 0.2% 99.2%  
228 0.3% 99.0%  
229 0.3% 98.7%  
230 0.4% 98%  
231 0.4% 98% Majority
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.9% 97%  
234 1.0% 96%  
235 1.2% 95% Last Result
236 2% 94%  
237 2% 92%  
238 2% 91%  
239 2% 89%  
240 3% 87%  
241 3% 84%  
242 4% 82%  
243 3% 78%  
244 4% 75%  
245 4% 71%  
246 5% 67%  
247 3% 61%  
248 4% 58%  
249 3% 54%  
250 4% 51% Median
251 5% 47%  
252 4% 42%  
253 4% 38%  
254 3% 34%  
255 3% 31%  
256 3% 28%  
257 3% 25%  
258 3% 23%  
259 2% 20%  
260 2% 18%  
261 2% 16%  
262 2% 13%  
263 2% 12%  
264 1.5% 10%  
265 1.1% 9%  
266 1.0% 7%  
267 1.1% 6%  
268 0.9% 5%  
269 0.9% 4%  
270 0.5% 3%  
271 0.7% 3%  
272 0.4% 2%  
273 0.5% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.3%  
275 0.4% 1.0%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.7%  
180 0.1% 99.6%  
181 0.2% 99.5%  
182 0.3% 99.3%  
183 0.3% 99.0%  
184 0.3% 98.7%  
185 0.6% 98%  
186 0.6% 98%  
187 0.7% 97%  
188 0.5% 96%  
189 1.1% 96%  
190 0.7% 95%  
191 1.3% 94%  
192 1.5% 93%  
193 1.5% 91%  
194 2% 90%  
195 2% 88%  
196 2% 87%  
197 2% 85%  
198 2% 83%  
199 3% 80%  
200 3% 78%  
201 3% 75%  
202 3% 72%  
203 3% 69%  
204 3% 65%  
205 3% 62% Median
206 4% 59%  
207 4% 55%  
208 4% 51%  
209 5% 47%  
210 4% 42%  
211 3% 38%  
212 4% 35%  
213 4% 31%  
214 5% 28%  
215 4% 23%  
216 3% 19%  
217 3% 17%  
218 3% 14%  
219 2% 11%  
220 2% 9%  
221 2% 7%  
222 1.0% 6%  
223 0.8% 5%  
224 0.8% 4% Last Result
225 0.7% 3%  
226 0.5% 2%  
227 0.3% 2%  
228 0.3% 2%  
229 0.3% 1.2%  
230 0.2% 1.0%  
231 0.2% 0.8% Majority
232 0.1% 0.6%  
233 0.1% 0.5%  
234 0.1% 0.4%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
167 0.2% 99.5%  
168 0.2% 99.4%  
169 0.3% 99.1%  
170 0.3% 98.8%  
171 0.4% 98.5%  
172 0.5% 98%  
173 0.8% 98%  
174 0.7% 97%  
175 0.8% 96%  
176 0.9% 95%  
177 1.1% 94%  
178 1.5% 93%  
179 2% 92%  
180 2% 90%  
181 3% 89%  
182 3% 86%  
183 4% 83%  
184 4% 79%  
185 4% 76%  
186 4% 71%  
187 4% 67%  
188 4% 63%  
189 4% 59%  
190 4% 55% Median
191 4% 51%  
192 4% 47%  
193 4% 43%  
194 4% 39%  
195 3% 35%  
196 3% 33%  
197 3% 30%  
198 3% 27%  
199 3% 24%  
200 2% 22%  
201 2% 19%  
202 2% 17%  
203 2% 15%  
204 2% 13%  
205 2% 11%  
206 2% 9%  
207 1.5% 7%  
208 1.2% 6%  
209 0.9% 5%  
210 0.9% 4%  
211 0.6% 3%  
212 0.8% 2%  
213 0.4% 1.4%  
214 0.3% 1.1%  
215 0.2% 0.8%  
216 0.2% 0.6%  
217 0.1% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0.1% 0.2%  
220 0.1% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0.1% 99.7%  
110 0.3% 99.6%  
111 0.2% 99.3%  
112 0.2% 99.2%  
113 0.4% 99.0%  
114 0.5% 98.6%  
115 0.5% 98%  
116 0.6% 98%  
117 0.5% 97%  
118 0.7% 96%  
119 1.0% 96%  
120 1.4% 95%  
121 1.3% 93%  
122 2% 92%  
123 2% 90%  
124 2% 89%  
125 2% 87%  
126 3% 85%  
127 3% 82%  
128 2% 79%  
129 3% 76%  
130 2% 74%  
131 3% 72%  
132 3% 69%  
133 3% 66%  
134 4% 63%  
135 4% 59%  
136 3% 55% Median
137 3% 52%  
138 3% 50%  
139 3% 47%  
140 3% 44%  
141 4% 41%  
142 3% 37%  
143 3% 33%  
144 4% 30%  
145 3% 26%  
146 3% 23%  
147 3% 20%  
148 2% 17%  
149 2% 15%  
150 2% 12%  
151 2% 10%  
152 2% 8%  
153 1.4% 6%  
154 1.4% 4%  
155 0.9% 3%  
156 0.5% 2%  
157 0.4% 1.5%  
158 0.3% 1.1%  
159 0.2% 0.8%  
160 0.2% 0.6%  
161 0.1% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.3% 99.2%  
101 0.4% 98.8%  
102 0.5% 98%  
103 0.6% 98%  
104 0.8% 97%  
105 0.7% 97%  
106 0.9% 96%  
107 1.3% 95%  
108 1.2% 94%  
109 1.5% 93%  
110 2% 91%  
111 2% 89%  
112 5% 87%  
113 3% 82%  
114 3% 80%  
115 4% 76%  
116 5% 72%  
117 2% 67%  
118 4% 65%  
119 5% 61%  
120 4% 56%  
121 3% 52% Median
122 5% 48%  
123 4% 43%  
124 4% 40%  
125 3% 35%  
126 4% 32%  
127 3% 29%  
128 3% 25%  
129 3% 23%  
130 3% 20%  
131 2% 17%  
132 2% 15%  
133 2% 13%  
134 2% 11%  
135 1.2% 9%  
136 2% 8%  
137 1.2% 6%  
138 1.3% 5%  
139 0.7% 4%  
140 0.9% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.4%  
143 0.5% 1.0%  
144 0.1% 0.5%  
145 0.2% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations