Opinion Poll by IBSP, 10–11 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 37.6% 42.1% 40.1–44.1% 39.6–44.7% 39.1–45.2% 38.1–46.2%
Koalicja Obywatelska 31.7% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Lewica 11.7% 15.7% 14.3–17.2% 13.9–17.7% 13.5–18.1% 12.9–18.8%
Konfederacja 4.8% 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Koalicja Polska 13.9% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 219 205–233 203–236 200–238 197–243
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 132 120–143 117–145 115–147 108–151
Lewica 0 68 61–78 58–80 56–82 52–87
Konfederacja 0 29 18–37 15–38 14–40 11–44
Koalicja Polska 58 11 7–22 5–24 0–26 0–29

Zjednoczona Prawica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0.3% 99.5%  
198 0.4% 99.2%  
199 0.5% 98.8%  
200 0.9% 98%  
201 1.1% 97%  
202 1.3% 96%  
203 2% 95%  
204 2% 93%  
205 2% 92%  
206 2% 90%  
207 3% 88%  
208 2% 84%  
209 2% 82%  
210 3% 80%  
211 2% 77%  
212 3% 74%  
213 4% 72%  
214 4% 68%  
215 3% 64%  
216 3% 61%  
217 3% 58%  
218 3% 55%  
219 3% 52% Median
220 3% 49%  
221 3% 45%  
222 3% 42%  
223 4% 39%  
224 3% 35%  
225 3% 32%  
226 3% 29%  
227 2% 26%  
228 3% 24%  
229 3% 21%  
230 3% 18%  
231 2% 15% Majority
232 2% 13%  
233 2% 11%  
234 2% 9%  
235 1.3% 8% Last Result
236 2% 6%  
237 2% 5%  
238 1.0% 3%  
239 0.6% 2%  
240 0.4% 1.4%  
241 0.2% 1.0%  
242 0.2% 0.7%  
243 0.1% 0.5%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.5%  
110 0.2% 99.3%  
111 0.3% 99.2%  
112 0.3% 98.9%  
113 0.4% 98.6%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 1.1% 97%  
117 1.4% 96%  
118 2% 94%  
119 2% 93%  
120 3% 90%  
121 2% 87%  
122 3% 85%  
123 3% 81%  
124 4% 79%  
125 4% 75%  
126 3% 71%  
127 3% 68%  
128 4% 64%  
129 4% 61%  
130 3% 57%  
131 3% 54%  
132 4% 51% Median
133 5% 46%  
134 2% 42%  
135 4% 39%  
136 3% 35%  
137 5% 31%  
138 4% 27%  
139 2% 23%  
140 3% 20%  
141 3% 17%  
142 3% 14%  
143 2% 11%  
144 2% 9%  
145 2% 7%  
146 2% 5%  
147 0.9% 3%  
148 0.7% 2%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.1%  
151 0.3% 0.7%  
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.1% 99.7%  
52 0.2% 99.6%  
53 0.3% 99.3%  
54 0.6% 99.0%  
55 0.7% 98%  
56 1.2% 98%  
57 1.4% 97%  
58 1.2% 95%  
59 2% 94%  
60 2% 92%  
61 4% 90%  
62 3% 87%  
63 5% 84%  
64 5% 78%  
65 5% 73%  
66 7% 68%  
67 6% 61%  
68 9% 55% Median
69 5% 47%  
70 5% 42%  
71 4% 37%  
72 3% 33%  
73 3% 30%  
74 3% 27%  
75 4% 24%  
76 3% 20%  
77 4% 17%  
78 4% 13%  
79 3% 10%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.0% 4%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.3% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.2%  
86 0.2% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Konfederacja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.8%  
10 0.1% 99.7%  
11 0.3% 99.6%  
12 0.4% 99.3%  
13 1.1% 98.9%  
14 1.2% 98%  
15 2% 97%  
16 2% 95%  
17 2% 92%  
18 1.5% 91%  
19 2% 89%  
20 3% 87%  
21 3% 84%  
22 5% 81%  
23 4% 76%  
24 4% 72%  
25 3% 68%  
26 4% 65%  
27 4% 61%  
28 5% 57%  
29 5% 52% Median
30 6% 47%  
31 5% 41%  
32 5% 36%  
33 6% 31%  
34 7% 25%  
35 5% 19%  
36 3% 14%  
37 3% 10%  
38 3% 7%  
39 1.0% 4%  
40 0.8% 3%  
41 0.4% 2%  
42 0.4% 1.5%  
43 0.3% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Koalicja Polska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0.4% 97%  
4 0.8% 96%  
5 4% 96%  
6 1.5% 92%  
7 7% 90%  
8 8% 83%  
9 6% 75%  
10 7% 69%  
11 11% 61% Median
12 8% 50%  
13 5% 42%  
14 4% 36%  
15 4% 32%  
16 4% 29%  
17 3% 25%  
18 3% 22%  
19 3% 18%  
20 4% 15%  
21 1.1% 11%  
22 2% 10%  
23 2% 8%  
24 2% 6%  
25 2% 5%  
26 0.9% 3%  
27 0.9% 2%  
28 0.5% 1.1%  
29 0.2% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica 235 219 15% 205–233 203–236 200–238 197–243
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska 224 213 4% 198–227 195–230 192–233 187–237
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica 166 201 0% 186–213 183–216 181–219 176–223
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska 224 144 0% 131–157 128–160 126–162 120–166
Koalicja Obywatelska 166 132 0% 120–143 117–145 115–147 108–151

Zjednoczona Prawica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0.3% 99.5%  
198 0.4% 99.2%  
199 0.5% 98.8%  
200 0.9% 98%  
201 1.1% 97%  
202 1.3% 96%  
203 2% 95%  
204 2% 93%  
205 2% 92%  
206 2% 90%  
207 3% 88%  
208 2% 84%  
209 2% 82%  
210 3% 80%  
211 2% 77%  
212 3% 74%  
213 4% 72%  
214 4% 68%  
215 3% 64%  
216 3% 61%  
217 3% 58%  
218 3% 55%  
219 3% 52% Median
220 3% 49%  
221 3% 45%  
222 3% 42%  
223 4% 39%  
224 3% 35%  
225 3% 32%  
226 3% 29%  
227 2% 26%  
228 3% 24%  
229 3% 21%  
230 3% 18%  
231 2% 15% Majority
232 2% 13%  
233 2% 11%  
234 2% 9%  
235 1.3% 8% Last Result
236 2% 6%  
237 2% 5%  
238 1.0% 3%  
239 0.6% 2%  
240 0.4% 1.4%  
241 0.2% 1.0%  
242 0.2% 0.7%  
243 0.1% 0.5%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.1% 99.7%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 0.2% 99.5%  
189 0.3% 99.3%  
190 0.3% 99.0%  
191 0.5% 98.6%  
192 0.9% 98%  
193 0.9% 97%  
194 0.8% 96%  
195 1.2% 96%  
196 2% 94%  
197 1.2% 93%  
198 2% 92%  
199 2% 90%  
200 2% 88%  
201 3% 87%  
202 2% 84%  
203 2% 82%  
204 3% 80%  
205 2% 77%  
206 2% 75%  
207 4% 73%  
208 3% 69%  
209 4% 66%  
210 3% 62%  
211 4% 59% Median
212 4% 55%  
213 3% 51%  
214 4% 48%  
215 3% 45%  
216 4% 42%  
217 3% 38%  
218 4% 35%  
219 3% 31%  
220 3% 28%  
221 2% 25%  
222 4% 23%  
223 2% 19%  
224 2% 17% Last Result
225 2% 14%  
226 2% 12%  
227 2% 10%  
228 1.4% 8%  
229 2% 7%  
230 1.2% 5%  
231 0.7% 4% Majority
232 0.9% 3%  
233 0.8% 3%  
234 0.6% 2%  
235 0.3% 1.2%  
236 0.3% 0.8%  
237 0.2% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100% Last Result
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.7%  
176 0.2% 99.5%  
177 0.3% 99.3%  
178 0.3% 99.0%  
179 0.5% 98.7%  
180 0.5% 98%  
181 0.7% 98%  
182 1.1% 97%  
183 1.1% 96%  
184 2% 95%  
185 2% 93%  
186 2% 91%  
187 2% 90%  
188 2% 87%  
189 2% 85%  
190 3% 83%  
191 2% 80%  
192 2% 78%  
193 2% 75%  
194 3% 73%  
195 3% 70%  
196 3% 67%  
197 3% 63%  
198 3% 60%  
199 3% 57%  
200 3% 54% Median
201 4% 50%  
202 4% 47%  
203 3% 43%  
204 4% 40%  
205 3% 36%  
206 3% 32%  
207 3% 29%  
208 3% 27%  
209 4% 23%  
210 3% 20%  
211 2% 17%  
212 3% 15%  
213 2% 12%  
214 2% 10%  
215 2% 8%  
216 1.1% 6%  
217 1.4% 5%  
218 0.8% 3%  
219 0.8% 3%  
220 0.6% 2%  
221 0.4% 1.3%  
222 0.3% 0.9%  
223 0.2% 0.6%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0.1% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  

Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.2% 99.6%  
121 0.2% 99.4%  
122 0.2% 99.2%  
123 0.4% 99.0%  
124 0.5% 98.6%  
125 0.6% 98%  
126 0.8% 98%  
127 1.4% 97%  
128 1.4% 95%  
129 2% 94%  
130 2% 92%  
131 3% 91%  
132 2% 88%  
133 2% 86%  
134 3% 84%  
135 3% 81%  
136 3% 78%  
137 3% 75%  
138 2% 73%  
139 3% 70%  
140 4% 67%  
141 3% 63%  
142 3% 60%  
143 4% 57% Median
144 4% 53%  
145 4% 49%  
146 4% 46%  
147 4% 42%  
148 4% 38%  
149 3% 34%  
150 4% 31%  
151 3% 28%  
152 3% 24%  
153 3% 21%  
154 3% 18%  
155 2% 15%  
156 2% 13%  
157 2% 10%  
158 1.2% 8%  
159 1.5% 7%  
160 2% 6%  
161 1.0% 4%  
162 1.1% 3%  
163 0.5% 2%  
164 0.5% 1.5%  
165 0.3% 1.0%  
166 0.2% 0.7%  
167 0.2% 0.5%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0% Last Result

Koalicja Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.5%  
110 0.2% 99.3%  
111 0.3% 99.2%  
112 0.3% 98.9%  
113 0.4% 98.6%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 1.1% 97%  
117 1.4% 96%  
118 2% 94%  
119 2% 93%  
120 3% 90%  
121 2% 87%  
122 3% 85%  
123 3% 81%  
124 4% 79%  
125 4% 75%  
126 3% 71%  
127 3% 68%  
128 4% 64%  
129 4% 61%  
130 3% 57%  
131 3% 54%  
132 4% 51% Median
133 5% 46%  
134 2% 42%  
135 4% 39%  
136 3% 35%  
137 5% 31%  
138 4% 27%  
139 2% 23%  
140 3% 20%  
141 3% 17%  
142 3% 14%  
143 2% 11%  
144 2% 9%  
145 2% 7%  
146 2% 5%  
147 0.9% 3%  
148 0.7% 2%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.1%  
151 0.3% 0.7%  
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations