Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 12–16 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 31.5% 31.3% 29.3–33.5% 28.7–34.1% 28.2–34.6% 27.2–35.6%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 24.8% 23.0–26.9% 22.4–27.5% 22.0–28.0% 21.1–28.9%
Chega (ID) 0.0% 18.4% 16.7–20.2% 16.3–20.8% 15.9–21.2% 15.1–22.1%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 4.6% 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4% 4.4–7.7% 4.0–8.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4% 4.4–7.7% 4.0–8.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 12.7% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.7% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 1.7% 1.7% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.9–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 8 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (ID) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 1 1 1 1 1 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 60% 97% Median
8 37% 38% Last Result
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 24% 99.9%  
6 68% 76% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 78% 96% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 98% 99.2% Last Result, Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.6% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100%  
1 58% 58% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 8 7 0% 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Chega (ID) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 4 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 60% 97% Median
8 37% 38% Last Result
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 78% 96% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 41% 99.8%  
2 57% 58% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations