LIVRE (Greens/EFA)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.4% | 2.0–5.9% | 1.6–6.3% | 1.4–6.6% | 1.0–7.2% |
| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
4.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.1–5.9% | 2.9–6.3% | 2.5–6.9% |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
4.6% | 3.6–6.0% | 3.3–6.4% | 3.1–6.8% | 2.7–7.5% |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP-UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% | 1.0–3.7% | 0.7–4.3% |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
4.3% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.1–6.1% | 2.9–6.4% | 2.5–7.1% |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
2.4% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% | 1.4–3.9% | 1.2–4.5% |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
4.4% | 3.5–5.8% | 3.2–6.2% | 3.0–6.5% | 2.6–7.2% |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
2.5% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.5–4.1% | 1.2–4.6% |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
2.7% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.3% | 1.4–4.9% |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
4.8% | 3.6–6.4% | 3.3–6.9% | 3.1–7.3% | 2.6–8.2% |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
4.1% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.1–5.5% | 3.0–5.7% | 2.6–6.3% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
3.8% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.7% | 2.3–6.1% | 1.9–6.9% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
3.9% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.6–5.9% | 2.2–6.6% |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
3.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
3.0% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% | 1.7–5.2% | 1.4–5.9% |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
3.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.3–4.8% | 2.1–5.1% | 1.8–5.7% |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
4.2% | 3.5–5.3% | 3.2–5.6% | 3.0–5.9% | 2.7–6.4% |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
4.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.4–4.9% | 2.3–5.2% | 1.9–5.8% |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
3.5% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.4–5.0% | 2.1–5.5% |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
3.0% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.9–4.7% | 1.6–5.2% |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
5.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.0–7.0% | 3.7–7.3% | 3.3–8.0% |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
4.1% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.9–5.7% | 2.6–6.3% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for LIVRE (Greens/EFA).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 16% | 96% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 15% | 80% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 28% | 45% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 14% | 17% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP-UCP Público and RTP |
1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
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| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
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| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for LIVRE (Greens/EFA).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 58% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |