Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 6–9 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 40.2% | 37.6–42.8% | 36.9–43.5% | 36.3–44.2% | 35.1–45.4% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 26.2% | 24.0–28.6% | 23.3–29.2% | 22.8–29.8% | 21.8–31.0% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.8–10.9% | 7.4–11.3% | 7.1–11.8% | 6.5–12.6% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 6.2% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.8–8.0% | 4.5–8.4% | 4.0–9.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 115 | 108–123 | 106–128 | 103–130 | 101–130 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 71 | 66–82 | 65–83 | 64–84 | 59–86 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 18 | 15–24 | 14–24 | 13–25 | 10–27 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 11 | 9–17 | 9–17 | 8–20 | 6–20 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 10 | 6–13 | 6–16 | 6–18 | 6–19 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 106 | 2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 3% | 94% | |
| 108 | 5% | 90% | |
| 109 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 110 | 5% | 84% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 113 | 2% | 78% | |
| 114 | 13% | 76% | |
| 115 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 116 | 7% | 43% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 36% | |
| 118 | 3% | 34% | |
| 119 | 3% | 31% | |
| 120 | 4% | 28% | |
| 121 | 10% | 24% | |
| 122 | 2% | 13% | |
| 123 | 2% | 12% | |
| 124 | 3% | 9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 129 | 2% | 4% | |
| 130 | 2% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 65 | 3% | 95% | |
| 66 | 4% | 93% | |
| 67 | 9% | 89% | |
| 68 | 9% | 80% | |
| 69 | 6% | 71% | |
| 70 | 11% | 65% | |
| 71 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 72 | 2% | 43% | |
| 73 | 3% | 41% | |
| 74 | 4% | 38% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 34% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 32% | |
| 77 | 2% | 31% | |
| 78 | 3% | 29% | |
| 79 | 3% | 26% | |
| 80 | 6% | 23% | |
| 81 | 5% | 18% | |
| 82 | 4% | 13% | |
| 83 | 5% | 9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 2% | 98% | |
| 14 | 2% | 96% | |
| 15 | 6% | 94% | |
| 16 | 5% | 88% | |
| 17 | 7% | 83% | |
| 18 | 35% | 75% | Median |
| 19 | 4% | 41% | Last Result |
| 20 | 9% | 37% | |
| 21 | 3% | 28% | |
| 22 | 4% | 25% | |
| 23 | 11% | 21% | |
| 24 | 8% | 10% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 8 | 2% | 98% | |
| 9 | 24% | 95% | |
| 10 | 16% | 71% | |
| 11 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 4% | 49% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 46% | |
| 14 | 2% | 44% | |
| 15 | 14% | 42% | |
| 16 | 16% | 28% | |
| 17 | 7% | 11% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 20 | 3% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 15% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 8% | 84% | |
| 8 | 10% | 76% | |
| 9 | 10% | 67% | |
| 10 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 11 | 8% | 33% | |
| 12 | 5% | 24% | |
| 13 | 10% | 19% | |
| 14 | 3% | 9% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 17 | 2% | 5% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 3% | Last Result |
| 19 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 148 | 100% | 139–155 | 137–157 | 135–158 | 132–160 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 134 | 99.9% | 127–142 | 125–145 | 122–148 | 119–148 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 129 | 98.9% | 118–138 | 117–139 | 117–140 | 114–142 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 115 | 43% | 108–123 | 106–128 | 103–130 | 101–130 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 82 | 0% | 75–91 | 73–93 | 72–95 | 70–98 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 136 | 2% | 97% | |
| 137 | 2% | 95% | |
| 138 | 2% | 93% | |
| 139 | 2% | 91% | |
| 140 | 4% | 89% | |
| 141 | 5% | 85% | |
| 142 | 6% | 80% | |
| 143 | 6% | 74% | |
| 144 | 5% | 69% | Median |
| 145 | 4% | 64% | |
| 146 | 2% | 60% | |
| 147 | 3% | 58% | |
| 148 | 9% | 55% | |
| 149 | 9% | 46% | |
| 150 | 7% | 37% | |
| 151 | 3% | 30% | |
| 152 | 3% | 28% | |
| 153 | 7% | 24% | |
| 154 | 5% | 17% | |
| 155 | 2% | 12% | |
| 156 | 4% | 10% | |
| 157 | 3% | 6% | |
| 158 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 124 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 125 | 2% | 96% | |
| 126 | 3% | 94% | |
| 127 | 5% | 92% | |
| 128 | 3% | 87% | |
| 129 | 2% | 84% | |
| 130 | 6% | 82% | |
| 131 | 3% | 76% | |
| 132 | 11% | 73% | |
| 133 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 134 | 6% | 51% | |
| 135 | 2% | 44% | |
| 136 | 2% | 42% | |
| 137 | 2% | 41% | |
| 138 | 6% | 39% | |
| 139 | 8% | 33% | |
| 140 | 3% | 25% | |
| 141 | 10% | 22% | |
| 142 | 3% | 12% | |
| 143 | 2% | 10% | |
| 144 | 2% | 8% | |
| 145 | 3% | 6% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 148 | 2% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 98.9% | Majority |
| 117 | 4% | 98% | |
| 118 | 5% | 94% | |
| 119 | 2% | 89% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 121 | 2% | 87% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 123 | 3% | 84% | |
| 124 | 4% | 81% | |
| 125 | 9% | 77% | |
| 126 | 4% | 68% | Median |
| 127 | 7% | 64% | |
| 128 | 3% | 57% | |
| 129 | 5% | 54% | |
| 130 | 19% | 49% | |
| 131 | 11% | 30% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 134 | 2% | 17% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 136 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 137 | 2% | 14% | |
| 138 | 2% | 12% | |
| 139 | 7% | 10% | |
| 140 | 2% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 106 | 2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 3% | 94% | |
| 108 | 5% | 90% | |
| 109 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 110 | 5% | 84% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 113 | 2% | 78% | |
| 114 | 13% | 76% | |
| 115 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 116 | 7% | 43% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 36% | |
| 118 | 3% | 34% | |
| 119 | 3% | 31% | |
| 120 | 4% | 28% | |
| 121 | 10% | 24% | |
| 122 | 2% | 13% | |
| 123 | 2% | 12% | |
| 124 | 3% | 9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 129 | 2% | 4% | |
| 130 | 2% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 73 | 3% | 97% | |
| 74 | 4% | 94% | |
| 75 | 2% | 90% | |
| 76 | 5% | 88% | |
| 77 | 7% | 83% | |
| 78 | 3% | 76% | |
| 79 | 3% | 72% | |
| 80 | 7% | 70% | |
| 81 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 82 | 9% | 54% | |
| 83 | 3% | 45% | |
| 84 | 2% | 42% | |
| 85 | 4% | 40% | |
| 86 | 5% | 36% | |
| 87 | 6% | 31% | |
| 88 | 6% | 26% | |
| 89 | 5% | 20% | |
| 90 | 4% | 15% | |
| 91 | 2% | 11% | |
| 92 | 2% | 9% | |
| 93 | 2% | 7% | |
| 94 | 2% | 5% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 600
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.22%