CDS–Partido Popular
Voting Intentions
Last result: 36.9% (General Election of 4 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.9% | 4.2–5.7% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.8% |
| 30 September–3 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.5–6.3% | 3.2–6.7% | 2.9–7.3% |
| 29 September–2 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.4% | 2.6–5.7% | 2.2–6.3% |
| 26 September–2 October 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
4.9% | 4.3–5.5% | 4.2–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.8–6.2% |
| 28 September–1 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.7–5.9% | 2.3–6.5% |
| 26 September–1 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
| 25 September–1 October 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal |
5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| 27–30 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.8–6.1% | 2.5–6.7% |
| 26–29 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.3–6.1% | 3.1–6.5% | 2.7–7.1% |
| 23–29 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
5.1% | 4.4–6.0% | 4.2–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.7–6.9% |
| 26–29 September 2019 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | 4.5–5.5% | 4.4–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.0–6.0% |
| 25–28 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% | 3.0–6.3% | 2.6–6.9% |
| 24–27 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
3.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.4–5.5% | 2.1–6.1% |
| 23–26 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.7–5.9% | 2.3–6.5% |
| 22–25 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% | 3.0–6.3% | 2.6–6.9% |
| 21–25 September 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
5.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.7–7.3% | 3.2–8.0% |
| 21–24 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% | 3.0–6.3% | 2.6–6.9% |
| 20–23 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% | 3.0–6.3% | 2.6–6.9% |
| 19–22 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.5–6.3% | 3.2–6.7% | 2.9–7.3% |
| 18–21 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5.5% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.2–7.3% | 3.9–7.6% | 3.5–8.4% |
| 17–20 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.7–7.3% | 3.2–8.0% |
| 9–12 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5.6% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% | 4.1–7.8% | 3.6–8.5% |
| 7–12 September 2019 | Eurosondagem | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–7.0% |
| 2–11 September 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.8–8.1% | 4.3–8.8% |
| 1–8 September 2019 | Aximage | 4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| 24 August–5 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| 1–5 September 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 12–24 August 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
4.9% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.6–6.5% |
| 18–28 July 2019 | Multidados TVI |
3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| 12–15 July 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4.8% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.6–6.5% | 3.4–6.9% | 3.0–7.5% |
| 8–14 July 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 7–11 July 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| 15–27 June 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| 13–19 June 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.6% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.2–8.5% | 4.9–8.9% | 4.4–9.6% |
| 2–6 June 2019 | Eurosondagem | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 16–22 May 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.9% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.4–8.8% | 5.2–9.2% | 4.7–10.0% |
| 10–19 May 2019 | Pitagórica | 6.1% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.7–8.0% | 4.5–8.3% | 4.0–9.1% |
| 16–19 May 2019 | CESOP–UCP | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.6–8.7% |
| 7–12 May 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.7% |
| 3–13 April 2019 | Pitagórica | 6.4% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.3% | 4.8–8.7% | 4.3–9.4% |
| 7–11 April 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
8.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 30 March–1 April 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.5% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.8–10.6% | 6.5–11.0% | 5.9–11.8% |
| 10–14 March 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
8.5% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.1% | 7.0–10.4% | 6.5–11.0% |
| 9–13 March 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
9.7% | 8.3–11.4% | 7.9–11.9% | 7.5–12.3% | 6.9–13.2% |
| 9–21 February 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| 5–10 February 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
9.3% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.6–11.5% | 7.2–11.9% | 6.6–12.8% |
| 2–9 January 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| 4–7 January 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
9.4% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.6–11.5% | 7.3–12.0% | 6.7–12.8% |
| 7–11 December 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.6% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.6–11.2% | 6.1–12.0% |
| 7–14 November 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 9–12 November 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.6% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.6% | 5.8–10.0% | 5.2–10.8% |
| 1–3 October 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
9.2% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.4–11.3% | 7.1–11.7% | 6.5–12.6% |
| 5–12 September 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.7% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| 1–2 September 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
9.1% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.4–11.3% | 7.1–11.7% | 6.5–12.5% |
| 13–16 July 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.3% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.3% | 5.5–9.7% | 5.0–10.5% |
| 4–11 July 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.5% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.1–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 9–12 June 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.1–9.3% |
| 3–9 May 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.4% |
| 5–9 May 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
6.7% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.2–8.6% | 4.9–9.0% | 4.4–9.7% |
| 8–12 April 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.0% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.2–9.3% | 4.7–10.1% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.6% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
5.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.2% | 3.9–7.6% | 3.5–8.3% |
| 3–6 February 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
6.1% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.7–8.0% | 4.5–8.4% | 4.0–9.1% |
| 14–17 January 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 6–9 January 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
6.2% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.8–8.0% | 4.5–8.4% | 4.0–9.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for CDS–Partido Popular.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 24% | 98% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 60% | 74% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 14% | 14% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 18 seats (General Election of 4 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6 | 6–7 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 2–12 |
| 30 September–3 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 2–12 | 2–14 |
| 29 September–2 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–10 |
| 26 September–2 October 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 4–10 |
| 28 September–1 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–10 |
| 26 September–1 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–10 | 2–11 |
| 25 September–1 October 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 27–30 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–10 | 2–11 |
| 26–29 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 4–8 | 3–10 | 2–10 | 2–13 |
| 23–29 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 4–10 | 4–11 |
| 26–29 September 2019 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–10 |
| 25–28 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 4–8 | 2–10 | 2–10 | 2–12 |
| 24–27 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–9 |
| 23–26 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 | 2–10 |
| 22–25 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–9 |
| 21–25 September 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
7 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 2–16 |
| 21–24 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 2–10 | 2–12 |
| 20–23 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6 | 3–10 | 2–10 | 2–11 | 2–11 |
| 19–22 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 2–10 | 2–13 |
| 18–21 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 6–14 | 4–17 |
| 17–20 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7 | 6–10 | 4–11 | 4–12 | 2–16 |
| 9–12 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
8 | 6–12 | 6–13 | 6–15 | 4–18 |
| 7–12 September 2019 | Eurosondagem | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 2–11 September 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
10 | 8–13 | 7–15 | 6–17 | 6–18 |
| 1–8 September 2019 | Aximage | 7 | 5–8 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 3–12 |
| 24 August–5 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6 | 4–8 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 2–15 |
| 1–5 September 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
10 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–15 | 6–18 |
| 12–24 August 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7 | 5–8 | 5–11 | 4–11 | 4–11 |
| 18–28 July 2019 | Multidados TVI |
3 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 0–8 |
| 12–15 July 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7 | 5–10 | 4–11 | 4–12 | 2–15 |
| 8–14 July 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
9 | 6–12 | 6–13 | 6–15 | 5–18 |
| 7–11 July 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
11 | 8–15 | 8–17 | 7–18 | 6–19 |
| 15–27 June 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–15 |
| 13–19 June 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 8–18 | 8–19 | 7–20 | 6–22 |
| 2–6 June 2019 | Eurosondagem | 10 | 8–13 | 7–13 | 6–16 | 6–18 |
| 16–22 May 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
12 | 9–18 | 8–19 | 7–20 | 6–22 |
| 10–19 May 2019 | Pitagórica | 10 | 7–15 | 6–17 | 6–18 | 6–19 |
| 16–19 May 2019 | CESOP–UCP | 10 | 9–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 7–16 |
| 7–12 May 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
15 | 11–20 | 10–20 | 10–21 | 8–24 |
| 3–13 April 2019 | Pitagórica | 11 | 8–16 | 6–19 | 6–19 | 6–20 |
| 7–11 April 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
18 | 13–20 | 12–21 | 11–23 | 10–25 |
| 30 March–1 April 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
18 | 13–23 | 11–24 | 10–25 | 10–28 |
| 10–14 March 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
18 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 | 10–25 |
| 9–13 March 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
20 | 18–28 | 18–28 | 14–29 | 11–30 |
| 9–21 February 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
14 | 13–19 | 11–20 | 10–22 | 10–25 |
| 5–10 February 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
20 | 17–25 | 13–28 | 13–29 | 11–30 |
| 2–9 January 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
12 | 9–18 | 8–18 | 8–19 | 7–19 |
| 4–7 January 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
20 | 15–25 | 13–28 | 12–28 | 10–30 |
| 7–11 December 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
19 | 13–23 | 11–25 | 10–26 | 10–29 |
| 7–14 November 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
11 | 9–14 | 8–17 | 7–18 | 6–19 |
| 9–12 November 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
14 | 10–19 | 10–21 | 9–22 | 6–24 |
| 1–3 October 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
19 | 14–25 | 13–27 | 12–29 | 10–30 |
| 5–12 September 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
14 | 10–18 | 10–19 | 9–19 | 8–21 |
| 1–2 September 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
19 | 15–24 | 13–27 | 12–28 | 10–30 |
| 13–16 July 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
12 | 9–18 | 8–19 | 7–20 | 6–22 |
| 4–11 July 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
13 | 10–18 | 9–18 | 8–18 | 7–20 |
| 9–12 June 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
10 | 6–13 | 6–16 | 6–18 | 6–20 |
| 3–9 May 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
10 | 9–15 | 8–16 | 7–18 | 6–19 |
| 5–9 May 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
10 | 7–15 | 6–17 | 6–19 | 6–20 |
| 8–12 April 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
11 | 9–18 | 8–19 | 7–20 | 6–21 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
10 | 7–13 | 6–14 | 6–16 | 6–17 |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
8 | 6–10 | 6–12 | 5–13 | 3–16 |
| 3–6 February 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
10 | 6–13 | 6–14 | 6–16 | 5–19 |
| 14–17 January 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
11 | 9–14 | 8–17 | 7–18 | 6–19 |
| 6–9 January 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
10 | 6–13 | 6–16 | 6–18 | 6–19 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for CDS–Partido Popular.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 6 | 54% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 28% | 38% | |
| 8 | 4% | 10% | |
| 9 | 2% | 6% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |