Partido Social Democrata
Voting Intentions
Last result: 36.9% (General Election of 4 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 27.3% | 25.0–30.0% | 24.5–30.5% | 24.1–30.9% | 23.3–31.7% |
| 30 September–3 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
27.7% | 25.4–30.1% | 24.8–30.8% | 24.2–31.4% | 23.2–32.6% |
| 29 September–2 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
28.8% | 26.6–31.3% | 25.9–32.0% | 25.3–32.6% | 24.3–33.8% |
| 26 September–2 October 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
26.8% | 25.6–28.1% | 25.3–28.4% | 25.0–28.7% | 24.4–29.3% |
| 28 September–1 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
28.5% | 26.2–31.0% | 25.6–31.6% | 25.0–32.3% | 24.0–33.4% |
| 26 September–1 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
26.1% | 24.4–27.9% | 23.9–28.5% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.8% |
| 25 September–1 October 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal |
25.5% | 24.3–26.8% | 23.9–27.1% | 23.7–27.4% | 23.1–28.0% |
| 27–30 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
28.5% | 26.2–31.0% | 25.6–31.6% | 25.0–32.3% | 24.0–33.4% |
| 26–29 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
28.8% | 26.6–31.3% | 25.9–32.0% | 25.3–32.6% | 24.3–33.8% |
| 23–29 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
28.4% | 26.9–30.1% | 26.4–30.5% | 26.0–30.9% | 25.3–31.7% |
| 26–29 September 2019 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
29.7% | 28.7–30.7% | 28.4–31.0% | 28.1–31.3% | 27.6–31.8% |
| 25–28 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
27.7% | 25.4–30.1% | 24.8–30.8% | 24.2–31.4% | 23.2–32.6% |
| 24–27 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
26.5% | 24.3–28.9% | 23.7–29.6% | 23.1–30.2% | 22.1–31.4% |
| 23–26 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
26.7% | 24.4–29.1% | 23.8–29.8% | 23.3–30.4% | 22.3–31.5% |
| 22–25 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
26.8% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.0–29.9% | 23.4–30.5% | 22.4–31.7% |
| 21–25 September 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
25.2% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.4–28.2% | 21.9–28.8% | 20.9–30.0% |
| 21–24 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
27.0% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.1–30.1% | 23.6–30.7% | 22.6–31.9% |
| 20–23 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
28.5% | 26.2–31.0% | 25.6–31.6% | 25.0–32.3% | 24.0–33.4% |
| 19–22 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
27.7% | 25.4–30.1% | 24.8–30.8% | 24.2–31.4% | 23.2–32.6% |
| 18–21 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
26.8% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.0–29.9% | 23.4–30.5% | 22.4–31.7% |
| 17–20 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
26.7% | 24.4–29.1% | 23.8–29.8% | 23.3–30.4% | 22.3–31.5% |
| 9–12 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
23.3% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.6–26.3% | 20.1–26.8% | 19.1–28.0% |
| 7–12 September 2019 | Eurosondagem | 23.3% | 22.1–24.5% | 21.8–24.9% | 21.5–25.2% | 21.0–25.8% |
| 2–11 September 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.6% | 21.7–25.6% | 21.2–26.2% | 20.8–26.7% | 19.9–27.6% |
| 1–8 September 2019 | Aximage | 20.6% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.6–22.8% | 18.2–23.3% | 17.5–24.1% |
| 24 August–5 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
22.7% | 20.9–24.7% | 20.4–25.3% | 20.0–25.8% | 19.1–26.7% |
| 1–5 September 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
23.3% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.5% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.8% |
| 12–24 August 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
20.4% | 19.1–21.8% | 18.7–22.2% | 18.4–22.5% | 17.8–23.2% |
| 18–28 July 2019 | Multidados TVI |
20.2% | 18.5–22.2% | 18.0–22.7% | 17.6–23.2% | 16.8–24.1% |
| 12–15 July 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.6% | 21.5–26.0% | 20.9–26.6% | 20.4–27.2% | 19.4–28.3% |
| 8–14 July 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
21.6% | 19.8–23.6% | 19.3–24.1% | 18.9–24.6% | 18.1–25.6% |
| 7–11 July 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
23.6% | 22.0–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.4% | 20.3–27.2% |
| 15–27 June 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
22.8% | 21.0–24.8% | 20.5–25.4% | 20.1–25.9% | 19.2–26.9% |
| 13–19 June 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.1% | 21.0–25.5% | 20.5–26.1% | 20.0–26.7% | 19.0–27.8% |
| 2–6 June 2019 | Eurosondagem | 24.2% | 22.5–26.0% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.7–26.9% | 20.9–27.8% |
| 16–22 May 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
25.7% | 23.6–28.1% | 23.0–28.7% | 22.4–29.3% | 21.4–30.5% |
| 10–19 May 2019 | Pitagórica | 22.5% | 20.4–24.8% | 19.8–25.4% | 19.3–26.0% | 18.4–27.1% |
| 16–19 May 2019 | CESOP–UCP | 28.0% | 26.7–29.4% | 26.3–29.8% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.4–30.7% |
| 7–12 May 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.3% |
| 3–13 April 2019 | Pitagórica | 25.6% | 23.4–28.0% | 22.8–28.7% | 22.3–29.2% | 21.3–30.4% |
| 7–11 April 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.9–27.3% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.7–28.7% |
| 30 March–1 April 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
27.2% | 25.0–29.7% | 24.4–30.3% | 23.8–30.9% | 22.8–32.1% |
| 10–14 March 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
25.2% | 23.5–27.0% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.6–28.0% | 21.8–28.8% |
| 9–13 March 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.8% | 21.7–26.2% | 21.1–26.8% | 20.6–27.4% | 19.6–28.6% |
| 9–21 February 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
25.0% | 23.1–27.0% | 22.5–27.6% | 22.1–28.1% | 21.2–29.1% |
| 5–10 February 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
24.4% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.7–27.4% | 21.2–28.0% | 20.1–29.2% |
| 2–9 January 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
24.8% | 23.1–26.6% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.2–27.5% | 21.4–28.4% |
| 4–7 January 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
24.2% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.4–27.2% | 20.9–27.7% | 20.0–28.9% |
| 7–11 December 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.8% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.0–27.8% | 21.5–28.4% | 20.5–29.5% |
| 7–14 November 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
26.8% | 25.1–28.7% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.2–29.6% | 23.4–30.5% |
| 9–12 November 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
26.4% | 24.2–28.8% | 23.5–29.4% | 23.0–30.0% | 22.0–31.2% |
| 1–3 October 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
24.0% | 21.8–26.3% | 21.2–27.0% | 20.7–27.5% | 19.7–28.7% |
| 5–12 September 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
27.5% | 25.7–29.3% | 25.2–29.9% | 24.8–30.3% | 24.0–31.2% |
| 1–2 September 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
24.0% | 21.9–26.4% | 21.3–27.1% | 20.8–27.6% | 19.8–28.8% |
| 13–16 July 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
27.2% | 24.9–29.6% | 24.3–30.3% | 23.8–30.9% | 22.7–32.1% |
| 4–11 July 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
27.3% | 25.5–29.2% | 25.1–29.7% | 24.6–30.1% | 23.8–31.0% |
| 9–12 June 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
27.7% | 25.5–30.2% | 24.9–30.9% | 24.3–31.5% | 23.3–32.6% |
| 3–9 May 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
28.0% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.5–31.7% |
| 5–9 May 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
27.7% | 25.4–30.1% | 24.8–30.8% | 24.2–31.4% | 23.2–32.6% |
| 8–12 April 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
26.6% | 24.4–29.0% | 23.8–29.7% | 23.2–30.3% | 22.2–31.5% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
28.4% | 26.6–30.3% | 26.1–30.8% | 25.7–31.3% | 24.9–32.2% |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
26.9% | 24.7–29.4% | 24.1–30.0% | 23.5–30.6% | 22.5–31.8% |
| 3–6 February 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
26.4% | 24.2–28.8% | 23.5–29.4% | 23.0–30.0% | 22.0–31.2% |
| 14–17 January 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
26.9% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.7–29.3% | 24.3–29.7% | 23.5–30.6% |
| 6–9 January 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
26.2% | 24.0–28.6% | 23.3–29.2% | 22.8–29.8% | 21.8–31.0% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Social Democrata.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 12% | 95% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 19% | 82% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 27.5–28.5% | 15% | 45% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 14% | 30% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 11% | 16% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 89 seats (General Election of 4 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 77 | 70–85 | 68–86 | 67–87 | 65–93 |
| 30 September–3 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
77 | 68–87 | 67–91 | 65–93 | 62–96 |
| 29 September–2 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
81 | 75–88 | 73–92 | 71–93 | 68–98 |
| 26 September–2 October 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
76 | 73–80 | 72–81 | 72–82 | 68–83 |
| 28 September–1 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
82 | 76–85 | 73–88 | 73–92 | 67–95 |
| 26 September–1 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
76 | 71–80 | 69–82 | 67–84 | 65–90 |
| 25 September–1 October 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal |
72 | 67–76 | 66–76 | 66–77 | 64–79 |
| 27–30 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
80 | 74–91 | 73–93 | 71–95 | 67–98 |
| 26–29 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
82 | 74–93 | 73–95 | 71–96 | 67–98 |
| 23–29 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
79 | 73–83 | 71–84 | 71–85 | 69–88 |
| 26–29 September 2019 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
84 | 81–86 | 79–87 | 78–89 | 77–93 |
| 25–28 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
79 | 71–84 | 68–86 | 66–88 | 65–94 |
| 24–27 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
76 | 70–84 | 69–85 | 66–88 | 61–94 |
| 23–26 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
73 | 72–83 | 68–85 | 66–86 | 64–94 |
| 22–25 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
77 | 71–82 | 67–84 | 64–86 | 61–96 |
| 21–25 September 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
71 | 63–77 | 61–79 | 60–81 | 57–85 |
| 21–24 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
77 | 70–84 | 67–86 | 66–88 | 62–93 |
| 20–23 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
81 | 74–91 | 72–93 | 69–95 | 66–100 |
| 19–22 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
75 | 71–82 | 67–84 | 66–87 | 63–93 |
| 18–21 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
75 | 67–81 | 65–83 | 63–83 | 61–89 |
| 17–20 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
73 | 67–80 | 64–81 | 63–82 | 59–86 |
| 9–12 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
65 | 58–73 | 57–74 | 55–76 | 53–78 |
| 7–12 September 2019 | Eurosondagem | 67 | 63–71 | 61–72 | 60–74 | 59–75 |
| 2–11 September 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
66 | 59–73 | 57–74 | 56–75 | 55–78 |
| 1–8 September 2019 | Aximage | 60 | 56–68 | 55–69 | 54–70 | 51–73 |
| 24 August–5 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
67 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 57–73 | 53–76 |
| 1–5 September 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
68 | 61–73 | 59–74 | 59–75 | 56–78 |
| 12–24 August 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
57 | 53–59 | 53–62 | 52–62 | 50–64 |
| 18–28 July 2019 | Multidados TVI |
57 | 52–64 | 51–66 | 50–68 | 49–70 |
| 12–15 July 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
70 | 61–77 | 59–79 | 58–81 | 55–84 |
| 8–14 July 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
60 | 54–66 | 53–66 | 53–68 | 50–71 |
| 7–11 July 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
69 | 62–74 | 61–75 | 60–77 | 57–80 |
| 15–27 June 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
64 | 60–72 | 59–72 | 57–73 | 54–77 |
| 13–19 June 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
69 | 61–75 | 60–78 | 58–79 | 55–84 |
| 2–6 June 2019 | Eurosondagem | 70 | 65–75 | 63–77 | 61–78 | 59–81 |
| 16–22 May 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
74 | 67–81 | 65–83 | 64–85 | 60–90 |
| 10–19 May 2019 | Pitagórica | 63 | 57–71 | 55–74 | 54–76 | 52–79 |
| 16–19 May 2019 | CESOP–UCP | 75 | 73–79 | 71–81 | 70–82 | 68–84 |
| 7–12 May 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
78 | 72–84 | 70–87 | 69–89 | 65–92 |
| 3–13 April 2019 | Pitagórica | 75 | 67–81 | 65–84 | 63–86 | 60–90 |
| 7–11 April 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
70 | 64–76 | 64–77 | 63–78 | 60–82 |
| 30 March–1 April 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
79 | 72–88 | 70–90 | 68–92 | 65–95 |
| 10–14 March 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
71 | 65–76 | 63–78 | 63–79 | 60–82 |
| 9–13 March 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
66 | 57–73 | 56–74 | 55–78 | 53–83 |
| 9–21 February 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
71 | 62–76 | 62–77 | 62–82 | 58–82 |
| 5–10 February 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
70 | 62–75 | 60–78 | 59–80 | 55–84 |
| 2–9 January 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
69 | 63–75 | 61–76 | 59–77 | 57–79 |
| 4–7 January 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
66 | 59–74 | 57–76 | 55–77 | 53–81 |
| 7–11 December 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
68 | 62–76 | 60–79 | 58–81 | 56–85 |
| 7–14 November 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
73 | 68–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 | 61–84 |
| 9–12 November 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
75 | 67–82 | 65–85 | 64–87 | 60–91 |
| 1–3 October 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
67 | 59–73 | 58–76 | 55–77 | 54–79 |
| 5–12 September 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
74 | 68–80 | 67–81 | 66–82 | 63–85 |
| 1–2 September 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
67 | 59–74 | 58–76 | 56–78 | 54–81 |
| 13–16 July 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
75 | 68–82 | 66–84 | 64–86 | 61–90 |
| 4–11 July 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
73 | 69–77 | 66–78 | 64–80 | 63–82 |
| 9–12 June 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
78 | 71–87 | 68–89 | 68–89 | 64–94 |
| 3–9 May 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
75 | 71–80 | 69–82 | 67–84 | 65–87 |
| 5–9 May 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
77 | 70–84 | 68–87 | 66–89 | 63–93 |
| 8–12 April 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
75 | 67–82 | 65–83 | 63–87 | 60–89 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
78 | 71–81 | 70–83 | 68–84 | 65–88 |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
75 | 68–82 | 66–85 | 64–87 | 61–90 |
| 3–6 February 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
73 | 65–80 | 64–82 | 62–82 | 59–87 |
| 14–17 January 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
74 | 68–78 | 66–81 | 64–81 | 62–84 |
| 6–9 January 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
71 | 66–82 | 65–83 | 64–84 | 59–86 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Social Democrata.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 2% | 94% | |
| 70 | 3% | 92% | |
| 71 | 3% | 89% | |
| 72 | 4% | 85% | |
| 73 | 7% | 81% | |
| 74 | 7% | 74% | |
| 75 | 6% | 67% | |
| 76 | 6% | 60% | |
| 77 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 48% | |
| 79 | 6% | 39% | |
| 80 | 4% | 33% | |
| 81 | 9% | 29% | |
| 82 | 3% | 20% | |
| 83 | 3% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 15% | |
| 85 | 3% | 10% | |
| 86 | 3% | 7% | |
| 87 | 2% | 4% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |