Coligação Democrática Unitária
Voting Intentions
Last result: 8.2% (General Election of 4 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.7% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.6% | 5.2–9.1% | 4.8–9.8% |
| 30 September–3 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.7% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.2–8.6% | 4.9–9.0% | 4.4–9.7% |
| 29 September–2 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.7% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.2–8.6% | 4.9–9.0% | 4.4–9.7% |
| 26 September–2 October 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
6.6% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.3–8.1% |
| 28 September–1 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7.3% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.3% | 5.5–9.7% | 5.0–10.5% |
| 26 September–1 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 25 September–1 October 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal |
7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.1% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.8–8.7% |
| 27–30 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7.8% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.2–9.9% | 5.9–10.3% | 5.4–11.1% |
| 26–29 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7.8% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.2–9.9% | 5.9–10.3% | 5.4–11.1% |
| 23–29 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.6–8.0% |
| 26–29 September 2019 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.4–6.5% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.1% |
| 25–28 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.2–9.3% |
| 24–27 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.2–9.3% |
| 23–26 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.7–7.3% | 3.2–8.0% |
| 22–25 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
5.3% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.0–7.1% | 3.8–7.4% | 3.4–8.2% |
| 21–25 September 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 21–24 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 20–23 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 19–22 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7.7% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.7% | 5.8–10.1% | 5.3–10.9% |
| 18–21 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 17–20 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 9–12 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7.8% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.8% | 5.9–10.2% | 5.3–11.0% |
| 7–12 September 2019 | Eurosondagem | 7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.1% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% |
| 2–11 September 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.6% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.1–10.4% | 6.9–10.8% | 6.3–11.5% |
| 1–8 September 2019 | Aximage | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| 24 August–5 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.5–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 1–5 September 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 12–24 August 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.6% | 5.9–7.5% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.1–8.4% |
| 18–28 July 2019 | Multidados TVI |
5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% |
| 12–15 July 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.7% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 8–14 July 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.4% |
| 7–11 July 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
6.8% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.6% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 15–27 June 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| 13–19 June 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.9% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.2–9.3% | 4.7–10.0% |
| 2–6 June 2019 | Eurosondagem | 6.3% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 16–22 May 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.2% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.4–9.6% | 4.9–10.3% |
| 10–19 May 2019 | Pitagórica | 6.4% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.3% | 4.8–8.7% | 4.3–9.4% |
| 16–19 May 2019 | CESOP–UCP | 8.0% | 7.3–8.9% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.5–9.8% |
| 7–12 May 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.7% |
| 3–13 April 2019 | Pitagórica | 6.4% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.3% | 4.8–8.7% | 4.3–9.4% |
| 7–11 April 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.3% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.4–9.6% |
| 30 March–1 April 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.0% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.2–9.3% | 4.7–10.1% |
| 10–14 March 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
7.1% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.4% |
| 9–13 March 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 9–21 February 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| 5–10 February 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.1–9.3% |
| 2–9 January 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| 4–7 January 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.2% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.4–9.6% | 4.9–10.4% |
| 7–11 December 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.1–9.3% |
| 7–14 November 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 9–12 November 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
6.1% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.7–8.0% | 4.5–8.4% | 4.0–9.1% |
| 1–3 October 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.3% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.3% | 5.5–9.7% | 5.0–10.5% |
| 5–12 September 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 1–2 September 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.1% | 5.9–8.7% | 5.6–9.1% | 5.3–9.5% | 4.8–10.3% |
| 13–16 July 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.0% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.2–9.3% | 4.7–10.1% |
| 4–11 July 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.3% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 9–12 June 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.1% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.6–9.1% | 5.3–9.5% | 4.8–10.3% |
| 3–9 May 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.5% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 5–9 May 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.7% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.7% | 5.8–10.1% | 5.3–10.9% |
| 8–12 April 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.7% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.7% | 5.8–10.1% | 5.2–10.9% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.3% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.4% | 6.2–9.0% | 5.9–9.4% | 5.6–9.8% | 5.1–10.6% |
| 3–6 February 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
7.6% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.6% | 5.8–10.0% | 5.2–10.8% |
| 14–17 January 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 6–9 January 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Coligação Democrática Unitária.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 38% | 92% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 34% | 55% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 15% | 21% | Last Result |
| 8.5–9.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 17 seats (General Election of 4 October 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 13 | 8–17 | 8–18 | 7–19 | 6–20 |
| 30 September–3 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
12 | 8–17 | 7–17 | 6–18 | 5–20 |
| 29 September–2 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
13 | 8–17 | 7–17 | 6–18 | 5–20 |
| 26 September–2 October 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–17 |
| 28 September–1 October 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
12 | 10–18 | 9–20 | 8–20 | 6–22 |
| 26 September–1 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
17 | 13–20 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 10–23 |
| 25 September–1 October 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal |
14 | 11–16 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| 27–30 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
17 | 13–20 | 11–21 | 9–22 | 8–24 |
| 26–29 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
17 | 11–20 | 11–20 | 9–21 | 8–23 |
| 23–29 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
9 | 7–13 | 6–15 | 6–15 | 6–16 |
| 26–29 September 2019 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
9 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 6–13 | 6–14 |
| 25–28 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
10 | 7–16 | 6–17 | 5–17 | 5–19 |
| 24–27 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
13 | 9–17 | 8–17 | 7–18 | 5–19 |
| 23–26 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
9 | 5–11 | 5–13 | 5–14 | 4–17 |
| 22–25 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
8 | 5–13 | 5–14 | 5–14 | 4–17 |
| 21–25 September 2019 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
13 | 9–17 | 8–18 | 7–19 | 5–20 |
| 21–24 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
15 | 9–17 | 8–18 | 7–19 | 6–21 |
| 20–23 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
13 | 8–17 | 7–18 | 6–20 | 5–21 |
| 19–22 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
17 | 11–18 | 9–20 | 8–20 | 6–22 |
| 18–21 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
14 | 8–17 | 8–18 | 7–19 | 5–20 |
| 17–20 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
14 | 6–17 | 6–19 | 6–20 | 5–21 |
| 9–12 September 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
14 | 12–20 | 11–20 | 10–21 | 8–23 |
| 7–12 September 2019 | Eurosondagem | 14 | 13–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 | 9–19 |
| 2–11 September 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
18 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 | 11–24 |
| 1–8 September 2019 | Aximage | 9 | 6–13 | 5–13 | 5–14 | 5–16 |
| 24 August–5 September 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
13 | 9–15 | 7–16 | 6–16 | 5–18 |
| 1–5 September 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
14 | 10–17 | 9–18 | 9–19 | 7–20 |
| 12–24 August 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
13 | 9–15 | 8–17 | 8–17 | 7–18 |
| 18–28 July 2019 | Multidados TVI |
9 | 7–13 | 5–13 | 5–13 | 4–17 |
| 12–15 July 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
14 | 9–18 | 8–19 | 7–20 | 6–21 |
| 8–14 July 2019 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
13 | 9–16 | 7–17 | 6–17 | 6–20 |
| 7–11 July 2019 | Eurosondagem Associação Mutualista Montepio |
14 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 8–18 | 7–20 |
| 15–27 June 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
17 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 11–22 |
| 13–19 June 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
14 | 10–18 | 8–19 | 8–20 | 7–21 |
| 2–6 June 2019 | Eurosondagem | 13 | 8–14 | 7–16 | 7–17 | 6–18 |
| 16–22 May 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
16 | 11–18 | 9–19 | 9–20 | 7–21 |
| 10–19 May 2019 | Pitagórica | 13 | 8–17 | 6–18 | 6–19 | 5–20 |
| 16–19 May 2019 | CESOP–UCP | 16 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 10–20 |
| 7–12 May 2019 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
17 | 12–19 | 10–20 | 10–21 | 9–22 |
| 3–13 April 2019 | Pitagórica | 13 | 8–17 | 7–17 | 6–18 | 5–20 |
| 7–11 April 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
14 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 9–18 | 8–20 |
| 30 March–1 April 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
14 | 9–17 | 9–19 | 8–20 | 6–21 |
| 10–14 March 2019 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
14 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 9–18 | 7–20 |
| 9–13 March 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
14 | 10–17 | 8–17 | 7–20 | 7–21 |
| 9–21 February 2019 | GfK Metris Expresso and SIC Notícias |
17 | 14–20 | 12–20 | 12–20 | 9–23 |
| 5–10 February 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
12 | 8–17 | 7–17 | 6–18 | 5–19 |
| 2–9 January 2019 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
14 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 9–18 | 7–20 |
| 4–7 January 2019 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
14 | 9–17 | 8–18 | 8–20 | 6–21 |
| 7–11 December 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 8–16 | 7–17 | 6–17 | 5–20 |
| 7–14 November 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
13 | 9–17 | 9–17 | 8–17 | 6–19 |
| 9–12 November 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
11 | 7–16 | 6–17 | 6–17 | 5–19 |
| 1–3 October 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
14 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 8–20 | 7–21 |
| 5–12 September 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
12 | 9–16 | 8–17 | 8–17 | 6–18 |
| 1–2 September 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
13 | 9–17 | 8–19 | 7–20 | 6–21 |
| 13–16 July 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
13 | 9–17 | 8–17 | 7–19 | 6–21 |
| 4–11 July 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
14 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 9–17 | 7–19 |
| 9–12 June 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
13 | 9–18 | 9–19 | 7–19 | 6–21 |
| 3–9 May 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
14 | 10–17 | 9–18 | 9–18 | 8–20 |
| 5–9 May 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
15 | 10–19 | 9–20 | 9–21 | 7–23 |
| 8–12 April 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
14 | 11–19 | 10–20 | 10–20 | 7–23 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
13 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 9–18 | 7–20 |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
14 | 10–18 | 9–19 | 9–20 | 6–22 |
| 3–6 February 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
15 | 11–19 | 9–20 | 9–20 | 6–23 |
| 14–17 January 2018 | Eurosondagem Expresso and SIC Notícias |
12 | 9–16 | 8–17 | 7–17 | 6–18 |
| 6–9 January 2018 | Aximage Correio da Manhã |
11 | 9–17 | 9–17 | 8–20 | 6–20 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Coligação Democrática Unitária.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 2% | 98% | |
| 8 | 8% | 96% | |
| 9 | 18% | 89% | |
| 10 | 7% | 71% | |
| 11 | 8% | 64% | |
| 12 | 6% | 56% | |
| 13 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 38% | |
| 15 | 3% | 20% | |
| 16 | 3% | 17% | |
| 17 | 7% | 14% | Last Result |
| 18 | 4% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |