Partido Socialista

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 32.3% (General Election of 4 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 37.1% 34.8–39.6% 34.0–40.2% 33.3–40.7% 32.1–41.7%
30 September–3 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 37.2% 34.7–39.8% 34.0–40.5% 33.4–41.1% 32.2–42.4%
29 September–2 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 37.3% 34.9–39.9% 34.2–40.6% 33.5–41.3% 32.4–42.5%
26 September–2 October 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 36.5% 35.2–37.8% 34.8–38.2% 34.5–38.5% 33.9–39.2%
28 September–1 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 37.3% 34.9–39.9% 34.2–40.6% 33.5–41.3% 32.4–42.5%
26 September–1 October 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
25 September–1 October 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal		 38.8% 37.4–40.2% 37.1–40.6% 36.7–41.0% 36.1–41.6%
27–30 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 35.5% 33.1–38.1% 32.4–38.8% 31.8–39.4% 30.6–40.7%
26–29 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 35.3% 32.9–37.9% 32.2–38.6% 31.6–39.2% 30.5–40.5%
23–29 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 38.6% 36.9–40.4% 36.5–40.9% 36.1–41.3% 35.3–42.1%
26–29 September 2019 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP		 36.6% 35.6–37.7% 35.3–38.1% 35.0–38.3% 34.5–38.9%
25–28 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 37.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.9%
24–27 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 37.2% 34.7–39.8% 34.0–40.5% 33.4–41.1% 32.2–42.4%
23–26 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 37.8% 35.3–40.4% 34.6–41.2% 34.0–41.8% 32.9–43.0%
22–25 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 38.3% 35.8–40.9% 35.1–41.7% 34.5–42.3% 33.3–43.5%
21–25 September 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 37.3% 34.9–39.9% 34.2–40.6% 33.5–41.3% 32.4–42.5%
21–24 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 36.3% 33.9–38.9% 33.2–39.6% 32.6–40.3% 31.4–41.5%
20–23 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 36.0% 33.5–38.6% 32.8–39.3% 32.3–39.9% 31.1–41.2%
19–22 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 37.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.9%
18–21 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 38.7% 36.2–41.3% 35.5–42.0% 34.8–42.6% 33.7–43.9%
17–20 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 40.7% 38.1–43.3% 37.4–44.0% 36.8–44.7% 35.6–45.9%
9–12 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 39.2% 36.7–41.8% 36.0–42.5% 35.4–43.1% 34.2–44.4%
7–12 September 2019 Eurosondagem 38.3% 36.9–39.7% 36.5–40.1% 36.2–40.4% 35.5–41.1%
2–11 September 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 38.0% 35.8–40.2% 35.2–40.8% 34.6–41.4% 33.6–42.4%
1–8 September 2019 Aximage 38.4% 36.4–40.4% 35.9–41.0% 35.4–41.5% 34.5–42.4%
24 August–5 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 41.6% 39.4–43.8% 38.7–44.5% 38.2–45.0% 37.2–46.1%
1–5 September 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		 38.1% 36.1–40.0% 35.6–40.6% 35.1–41.1% 34.2–42.0%
12–24 August 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 43.6% 42.0–45.3% 41.5–45.7% 41.1–46.1% 40.4–46.9%
18–28 July 2019 Multidados
TVI		 35.5% 33.4–37.7% 32.8–38.3% 32.3–38.9% 31.2–40.0%
12–15 July 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 37.4% 34.9–40.0% 34.3–40.8% 33.7–41.4% 32.5–42.6%
8–14 July 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 43.2% 41.0–45.5% 40.4–46.2% 39.9–46.7% 38.8–47.8%
7–11 July 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		 37.3% 35.4–39.3% 34.8–39.8% 34.4–40.3% 33.4–41.3%
15–27 June 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 37.7% 35.5–39.9% 34.9–40.6% 34.4–41.1% 33.4–42.2%
13–19 June 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 35.5% 33.1–38.1% 32.4–38.8% 31.8–39.4% 30.7–40.7%
2–6 June 2019 Eurosondagem 37.4% 35.5–39.4% 34.9–39.9% 34.5–40.4% 33.5–41.4%
16–22 May 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 36.5% 34.1–39.0% 33.4–39.7% 32.8–40.4% 31.7–41.6%
10–19 May 2019 Pitagórica 40.5% 38.0–43.1% 37.3–43.8% 36.7–44.5% 35.5–45.7%
16–19 May 2019 CESOP–UCP 39.0% 37.6–40.5% 37.2–40.9% 36.8–41.2% 36.1–41.9%
7–12 May 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 36.0% 33.9–38.2% 33.3–38.8% 32.7–39.4% 31.7–40.5%
3–13 April 2019 Pitagórica 37.2% 34.7–39.8% 34.0–40.5% 33.4–41.1% 32.3–42.4%
7–11 April 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 36.9% 35.0–38.9% 34.4–39.4% 34.0–39.9% 33.1–40.9%
30 March–1 April 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 34.6% 32.1–37.1% 31.4–37.8% 30.8–38.5% 29.7–39.7%
10–14 March 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol		 37.3% 35.3–39.2% 34.8–39.8% 34.3–40.3% 33.4–41.2%
9–13 March 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 36.3% 33.9–38.9% 33.2–39.6% 32.6–40.3% 31.4–41.5%
9–21 February 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 37.0% 34.8–39.2% 34.2–39.8% 33.7–40.4% 32.7–41.4%
5–10 February 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 36.4% 33.9–38.9% 33.2–39.7% 32.6–40.3% 31.5–41.5%
2–9 January 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 40.0% 38.0–42.0% 37.5–42.6% 37.0–43.1% 36.1–44.0%
4–7 January 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 37.7% 35.2–40.2% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.8%
7–11 December 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 37.0% 34.6–39.6% 33.9–40.3% 33.3–41.0% 32.1–42.2%
7–14 November 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 41.8% 39.9–43.9% 39.3–44.4% 38.9–44.9% 37.9–45.9%
9–12 November 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 37.8% 35.3–40.4% 34.6–41.1% 34.0–41.8% 32.8–43.0%
1–3 October 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 38.9% 36.4–41.5% 35.7–42.3% 35.1–42.9% 33.9–44.2%
5–12 September 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 41.4% 39.4–43.4% 38.8–44.0% 38.4–44.4% 37.4–45.4%
1–2 September 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 40.0% 37.4–42.6% 36.7–43.3% 36.1–43.9% 34.9–45.2%
13–16 July 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 39.0% 36.5–41.6% 35.8–42.3% 35.2–43.0% 34.0–44.2%
4–11 July 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 42.0% 40.1–44.0% 39.5–44.6% 39.0–45.1% 38.1–46.1%
9–12 June 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 37.0% 34.6–39.6% 33.9–40.3% 33.3–41.0% 32.1–42.2%
3–9 May 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 41.0% 39.0–43.0% 38.5–43.5% 38.0–44.0% 37.0–45.0%
5–9 May 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 37.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.9%
8–12 April 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 37.9% 35.5–40.5% 34.8–41.3% 34.1–41.9% 33.0–43.1%
8–14 March 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 41.5% 39.5–43.5% 39.0–44.1% 38.5–44.6% 37.5–45.5%
2–5 March 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 39.2% 36.7–41.8% 36.0–42.5% 35.4–43.1% 34.2–44.4%
3–6 February 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 40.6% 38.1–43.2% 37.4–44.0% 36.8–44.6% 35.6–45.9%
14–17 January 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 41.3% 39.3–43.3% 38.7–43.8% 38.3–44.3% 37.3–45.3%
6–9 January 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 40.2% 37.6–42.8% 36.9–43.5% 36.3–44.2% 35.1–45.4%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Socialista.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29.5–30.5% 0% 100%  
30.5–31.5% 0.2% 100%  
31.5–32.5% 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
32.5–33.5% 2% 99.0%  
33.5–34.5% 5% 97%  
34.5–35.5% 10% 92%  
35.5–36.5% 19% 81%  
36.5–37.5% 21% 62% Median
37.5–38.5% 17% 41%  
38.5–39.5% 13% 24%  
39.5–40.5% 7% 10%  
40.5–41.5% 2% 3%  
41.5–42.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
42.5–43.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
43.5–44.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 86 seats (General Election of 4 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 108 102–114 100–115 97–117 92–119
30 September–3 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 107 98–115 96–115 92–118 89–123
29 September–2 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 106 100–113 93–115 93–117 90–120
26 September–2 October 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 106 102–110 102–111 101–112 99–114
28 September–1 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 109 102–111 100–112 97–115 91–118
26 September–1 October 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 104 99–110 97–111 95–113 90–115
25 September–1 October 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal		 113 108–116 108–117 107–118 105–120
27–30 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 102 92–111 89–111 89–113 86–116
26–29 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 100 91–109 91–112 89–114 87–116
23–29 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 110 106–115 104–116 101–117 97–118
26–29 September 2019 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP		 106 102–109 102–110 100–112 96–112
25–28 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 108 102–117 100–118 98–122 91–123
24–27 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 107 101–115 99–117 97–117 92–121
23–26 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 115 105–117 101–118 101–121 95–125
22–25 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 111 105–118 102–120 101–123 94–128
21–25 September 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 110 102–116 100–117 97–119 93–124
21–24 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 105 100–113 96–115 94–117 89–120
20–23 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 104 95–111 91–113 89–115 85–118
19–22 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 107 101–115 99–117 96–118 91–120
18–21 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 109 102–116 100–119 97–123 95–126
17–20 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 114 106–120 106–122 104–125 100–130
9–12 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 115 107–122 105–125 104–126 100–129
7–12 September 2019 Eurosondagem 114 110–118 109–120 107–121 105–124
2–11 September 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 110 103–116 101–118 100–120 97–123
1–8 September 2019 Aximage 121 114–128 112–130 111–131 108–134
24 August–5 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 120 115–129 114–131 111–132 108–136
1–5 September 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		 113 108–120 106–122 105–124 102–127
12–24 August 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 128 122–133 122–134 120–135 118–137
18–28 July 2019 Multidados
TVI		 106 99–113 98–115 97–116 94–120
12–15 July 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 113 105–121 103–124 102–126 99–130
8–14 July 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 123 116–131 116–133 114–133 114–138
7–11 July 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		 112 105–117 104–119 103–121 100–125
15–27 June 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 113 104–118 101–119 101–119 95–127
13–19 June 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 109 101–116 99–118 97–121 93–125
2–6 June 2019 Eurosondagem 111 105–116 104–118 103–120 100–125
16–22 May 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 108 101–116 98–117 97–119 92–124
10–19 May 2019 Pitagórica 121 113–130 111–132 109–134 105–137
16–19 May 2019 CESOP–UCP 108 104–112 102–113 101–114 99–116
7–12 May 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 102 95–108 92–109 90–111 87–114
3–13 April 2019 Pitagórica 111 103–117 101–120 98–122 95–127
7–11 April 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 107 101–113 99–114 98–115 95–118
30 March–1 April 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 101 93–109 91–112 89–114 85–117
10–14 March 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol		 107 102–113 100–114 99–116 96–119
9–13 March 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 105 99–113 97–115 95–117 92–122
9–21 February 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 111 100–115 99–116 99–118 95–118
5–10 February 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 108 99–114 96–116 95–117 91–121
2–9 January 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 114 109–121 108–123 106–125 104–128
4–7 January 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 108 100–115 98–117 96–119 93–123
7–11 December 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 110 102–117 100–119 98–121 94–125
7–14 November 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 117 113–122 110–125 109–127 106–130
9–12 November 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 110 102–117 100–120 98–122 94–126
1–3 October 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 111 104–118 102–120 101–123 97–128
5–12 September 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 115 109–119 108–121 107–122 103–127
1–2 September 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 115 107–123 106–125 104–128 100–132
13–16 July 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 110 102–117 100–119 98–121 94–126
4–11 July 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 116 111–120 110–122 108–125 105–129
9–12 June 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 107 97–114 96–115 94–117 91–122
3–9 May 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 113 108–119 106–120 105–121 102–125
5–9 May 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 107 99–114 96–116 95–118 90–121
8–12 April 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 108 101–115 98–118 97–119 92–123
8–14 March 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 115 109–119 107–121 106–123 103–127
2–5 March 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 111 105–119 102–121 101–123 97–128
3–6 February 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 116 108–122 106–126 104–127 100–131
14–17 January 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 115 110–119 109–122 108–124 104–128
6–9 January 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 115 108–123 106–128 103–130 101–130

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Socialista.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.7%  
92 0.2% 99.6%  
93 0.2% 99.4%  
94 0.2% 99.2%  
95 0.4% 99.0%  
96 0.6% 98.7%  
97 0.6% 98%  
98 1.1% 97%  
99 1.0% 96%  
100 2% 95%  
101 3% 93%  
102 5% 90%  
103 3% 85%  
104 6% 82%  
105 9% 76%  
106 9% 67%  
107 7% 58%  
108 8% 51% Median
109 9% 42%  
110 7% 33%  
111 5% 27%  
112 4% 21%  
113 4% 18%  
114 4% 14%  
115 5% 9%  
116 2% 4% Majority
117 2% 3%  
118 0.6% 1.3%  
119 0.2% 0.6%  
120 0.1% 0.4%  
121 0% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%