Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 14–17 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 41.3% 39.3–43.3% 38.7–43.8% 38.3–44.3% 37.3–45.3%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 26.9% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.3–29.7% 23.5–30.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 115 110–119 109–122 108–124 104–128
Partido Social Democrata 89 74 68–78 66–81 64–81 62–84
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 13–19 13–20 11–22 10–24
CDS–Partido Popular 18 11 9–14 8–17 7–18 6–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 12 9–16 8–17 7–17 6–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.3% 99.5%  
106 0.9% 99.2%  
107 0.8% 98%  
108 2% 98%  
109 4% 95%  
110 4% 91%  
111 2% 86%  
112 12% 84%  
113 9% 73%  
114 7% 64%  
115 9% 57% Median
116 12% 47% Majority
117 13% 35%  
118 7% 23%  
119 6% 16%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 8%  
122 0.9% 6%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.7% 3%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.0%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.2% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.4%  
64 1.4% 98.7%  
65 1.1% 97%  
66 1.3% 96%  
67 2% 95%  
68 5% 92%  
69 4% 87%  
70 6% 83%  
71 11% 78%  
72 6% 66%  
73 9% 60%  
74 6% 51% Median
75 12% 45%  
76 11% 34%  
77 6% 23%  
78 7% 16%  
79 2% 10%  
80 3% 8%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.9% 1.4%  
84 0.1% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.9%  
11 1.3% 98.6%  
12 2% 97%  
13 7% 95%  
14 10% 88%  
15 11% 77%  
16 5% 67%  
17 21% 62% Median
18 31% 41%  
19 4% 10% Last Result
20 2% 6%  
21 1.1% 4%  
22 1.3% 3%  
23 0.4% 1.5%  
24 1.1% 1.1%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.3% 100%  
7 2% 98.7%  
8 6% 96%  
9 8% 90%  
10 28% 82%  
11 11% 54% Median
12 12% 43%  
13 15% 31%  
14 8% 17%  
15 2% 9%  
16 1.1% 6%  
17 1.4% 5%  
18 1.5% 4% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.3% 99.9%  
7 1.2% 98.6%  
8 3% 97%  
9 15% 95%  
10 8% 80%  
11 12% 72%  
12 10% 60% Median
13 8% 49%  
14 25% 41%  
15 6% 17%  
16 4% 10%  
17 5% 6% Last Result
18 0.8% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 52% 91% Last Result, Median
2 35% 39%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 143 100% 139–149 137–151 135–153 133–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 132 100% 126–137 125–139 123–141 121–144
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 127 99.8% 122–133 121–134 119–136 116–140
Partido Socialista 86 115 47% 110–119 109–122 108–124 104–128
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 85 0% 79–90 78–91 76–93 72–96

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.2% 99.8%  
133 0.2% 99.6%  
134 0.9% 99.4%  
135 1.1% 98%  
136 1.3% 97%  
137 2% 96%  
138 4% 94%  
139 6% 90%  
140 9% 85%  
141 8% 76%  
142 11% 68%  
143 8% 57%  
144 5% 49% Median
145 7% 43%  
146 7% 36%  
147 5% 29%  
148 12% 23%  
149 2% 12%  
150 4% 10%  
151 3% 6%  
152 0.9% 4%  
153 1.4% 3%  
154 0.4% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.1%  
156 0.4% 0.8%  
157 0.2% 0.4%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.4% 99.6%  
122 0.7% 99.3%  
123 1.2% 98.5%  
124 1.4% 97%  
125 2% 96%  
126 5% 94%  
127 6% 88%  
128 6% 83%  
129 10% 76%  
130 6% 67%  
131 10% 61%  
132 10% 50% Median
133 9% 40%  
134 12% 31%  
135 4% 20%  
136 5% 15%  
137 2% 11%  
138 2% 8%  
139 2% 6%  
140 0.8% 4%  
141 1.1% 3%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.4% 1.1%  
144 0.3% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.3% 99.8% Majority
117 0.8% 99.4%  
118 0.2% 98.7%  
119 2% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 3% 95%  
122 5% 92%  
123 10% 88%  
124 6% 78%  
125 6% 72%  
126 10% 67%  
127 9% 56% Median
128 9% 47%  
129 7% 39%  
130 8% 31%  
131 8% 23%  
132 4% 15%  
133 4% 11%  
134 2% 7%  
135 0.8% 4%  
136 1.1% 3%  
137 0.7% 2%  
138 0.6% 2%  
139 0.4% 1.1%  
140 0.4% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.3% 99.5%  
106 0.9% 99.2%  
107 0.8% 98%  
108 2% 98%  
109 4% 95%  
110 4% 91%  
111 2% 86%  
112 12% 84%  
113 9% 73%  
114 7% 64%  
115 9% 57% Median
116 12% 47% Majority
117 13% 35%  
118 7% 23%  
119 6% 16%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 8%  
122 0.9% 6%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.7% 3%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.0%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.2% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.4%  
74 0.4% 99.2%  
75 0.7% 98.8%  
76 1.3% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 3% 90%  
81 13% 87%  
82 4% 73%  
83 8% 69%  
84 7% 61%  
85 6% 54% Median
86 8% 48%  
87 9% 40%  
88 10% 30%  
89 7% 20%  
90 5% 13%  
91 4% 9%  
92 1.0% 5%  
93 1.5% 4%  
94 1.2% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations