Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 3–6 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 40.6% | 38.1–43.2% | 37.4–44.0% | 36.8–44.6% | 35.6–45.9% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 26.4% | 24.2–28.8% | 23.5–29.4% | 23.0–30.0% | 22.0–31.2% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.1–10.9% | 6.8–11.3% | 6.2–12.2% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.6% | 5.8–10.0% | 5.2–10.8% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 6.1% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.7–8.0% | 4.5–8.4% | 4.0–9.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 116 | 108–122 | 106–126 | 104–127 | 100–131 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 73 | 65–80 | 64–82 | 62–82 | 59–87 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 18 | 13–22 | 12–23 | 11–24 | 10–26 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 15 | 11–19 | 9–20 | 9–20 | 6–23 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 10 | 6–13 | 6–14 | 6–16 | 5–19 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 105 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 107 | 2% | 95% | |
| 108 | 5% | 92% | |
| 109 | 4% | 87% | |
| 110 | 3% | 84% | |
| 111 | 4% | 81% | |
| 112 | 5% | 77% | |
| 113 | 5% | 71% | |
| 114 | 8% | 66% | |
| 115 | 8% | 58% | |
| 116 | 10% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 117 | 7% | 41% | |
| 118 | 6% | 34% | |
| 119 | 5% | 28% | |
| 120 | 6% | 23% | |
| 121 | 4% | 17% | |
| 122 | 3% | 13% | |
| 123 | 2% | 10% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 126 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 4% | 93% | |
| 66 | 4% | 89% | |
| 67 | 2% | 85% | |
| 68 | 5% | 83% | |
| 69 | 4% | 78% | |
| 70 | 8% | 75% | |
| 71 | 10% | 67% | |
| 72 | 6% | 57% | |
| 73 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 74 | 2% | 44% | |
| 75 | 8% | 42% | |
| 76 | 13% | 34% | |
| 77 | 7% | 21% | |
| 78 | 2% | 14% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 81 | 4% | 10% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 12 | 3% | 97% | |
| 13 | 7% | 94% | |
| 14 | 6% | 87% | |
| 15 | 4% | 81% | |
| 16 | 7% | 77% | |
| 17 | 9% | 70% | |
| 18 | 36% | 61% | Median |
| 19 | 7% | 25% | Last Result |
| 20 | 2% | 18% | |
| 21 | 4% | 16% | |
| 22 | 3% | 12% | |
| 23 | 5% | 9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 3% | 98% | |
| 10 | 4% | 95% | |
| 11 | 5% | 90% | |
| 12 | 7% | 85% | |
| 13 | 6% | 77% | |
| 14 | 20% | 71% | |
| 15 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 16 | 6% | 43% | |
| 17 | 23% | 38% | Last Result |
| 18 | 4% | 15% | |
| 19 | 4% | 10% | |
| 20 | 4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 10% | 87% | |
| 8 | 11% | 77% | |
| 9 | 13% | 66% | |
| 10 | 25% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 7% | 27% | |
| 12 | 7% | 20% | |
| 13 | 6% | 13% | |
| 14 | 2% | 7% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 148 | 100% | 140–155 | 139–158 | 137–159 | 132–162 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 133 | 99.9% | 126–140 | 124–143 | 121–145 | 118–148 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 130 | 99.4% | 123–138 | 121–140 | 119–142 | 115–145 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 116 | 51% | 108–122 | 106–126 | 104–127 | 100–131 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 82 | 0% | 75–90 | 72–91 | 71–93 | 68–98 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 138 | 2% | 97% | |
| 139 | 4% | 96% | |
| 140 | 2% | 92% | |
| 141 | 3% | 90% | |
| 142 | 3% | 87% | |
| 143 | 5% | 84% | |
| 144 | 9% | 79% | |
| 145 | 6% | 70% | |
| 146 | 6% | 64% | |
| 147 | 7% | 58% | |
| 148 | 8% | 50% | |
| 149 | 7% | 42% | Median |
| 150 | 5% | 36% | |
| 151 | 5% | 31% | |
| 152 | 6% | 26% | |
| 153 | 4% | 20% | |
| 154 | 3% | 15% | |
| 155 | 3% | 12% | |
| 156 | 2% | 9% | |
| 157 | 2% | 7% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 159 | 2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 124 | 2% | 96% | |
| 125 | 2% | 94% | |
| 126 | 4% | 91% | |
| 127 | 6% | 87% | |
| 128 | 4% | 81% | |
| 129 | 5% | 78% | |
| 130 | 6% | 73% | |
| 131 | 8% | 68% | |
| 132 | 9% | 59% | |
| 133 | 6% | 50% | |
| 134 | 5% | 45% | Median |
| 135 | 7% | 39% | |
| 136 | 9% | 32% | |
| 137 | 3% | 23% | |
| 138 | 4% | 21% | |
| 139 | 4% | 17% | |
| 140 | 4% | 13% | |
| 141 | 2% | 9% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 143 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 5% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 119 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 121 | 3% | 96% | |
| 122 | 2% | 93% | |
| 123 | 3% | 91% | |
| 124 | 3% | 88% | |
| 125 | 5% | 85% | |
| 126 | 8% | 80% | |
| 127 | 4% | 73% | |
| 128 | 7% | 68% | |
| 129 | 6% | 62% | |
| 130 | 6% | 56% | |
| 131 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 132 | 8% | 41% | |
| 133 | 6% | 33% | |
| 134 | 6% | 27% | |
| 135 | 4% | 21% | |
| 136 | 3% | 17% | |
| 137 | 2% | 14% | |
| 138 | 3% | 12% | |
| 139 | 3% | 9% | |
| 140 | 2% | 6% | |
| 141 | 2% | 4% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 105 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 107 | 2% | 95% | |
| 108 | 5% | 92% | |
| 109 | 4% | 87% | |
| 110 | 3% | 84% | |
| 111 | 4% | 81% | |
| 112 | 5% | 77% | |
| 113 | 5% | 71% | |
| 114 | 8% | 66% | |
| 115 | 8% | 58% | |
| 116 | 10% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 117 | 7% | 41% | |
| 118 | 6% | 34% | |
| 119 | 5% | 28% | |
| 120 | 6% | 23% | |
| 121 | 4% | 17% | |
| 122 | 3% | 13% | |
| 123 | 2% | 10% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 126 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 73 | 2% | 95% | |
| 74 | 2% | 93% | |
| 75 | 3% | 91% | |
| 76 | 3% | 88% | |
| 77 | 4% | 85% | |
| 78 | 6% | 80% | |
| 79 | 5% | 74% | |
| 80 | 5% | 69% | |
| 81 | 7% | 64% | |
| 82 | 8% | 58% | |
| 83 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 84 | 6% | 42% | |
| 85 | 6% | 36% | |
| 86 | 9% | 30% | |
| 87 | 5% | 21% | |
| 88 | 3% | 16% | |
| 89 | 3% | 13% | |
| 90 | 2% | 10% | |
| 91 | 4% | 8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 4% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 603
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.98%