Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 2–5 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 39.2% | 36.7–41.8% | 36.0–42.5% | 35.4–43.1% | 34.2–44.4% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 26.9% | 24.7–29.4% | 24.1–30.0% | 23.5–30.6% | 22.5–31.8% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.1–12.1% | 7.8–12.6% | 7.1–13.4% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2–9.0% | 5.9–9.4% | 5.6–9.8% | 5.1–10.6% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 5.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.2% | 3.9–7.6% | 3.5–8.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 111 | 105–119 | 102–121 | 101–123 | 97–128 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 75 | 68–82 | 66–85 | 64–87 | 61–90 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 20 | 18–25 | 16–26 | 15–27 | 12–28 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 14 | 10–18 | 9–19 | 9–20 | 6–22 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–12 | 5–13 | 3–16 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 101 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 96% | |
| 103 | 2% | 94% | |
| 104 | 2% | 92% | |
| 105 | 3% | 90% | |
| 106 | 5% | 87% | |
| 107 | 6% | 83% | |
| 108 | 7% | 77% | |
| 109 | 6% | 70% | |
| 110 | 6% | 64% | |
| 111 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 112 | 6% | 50% | |
| 113 | 6% | 44% | |
| 114 | 7% | 38% | |
| 115 | 6% | 31% | |
| 116 | 5% | 25% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 20% | |
| 118 | 4% | 15% | |
| 119 | 3% | 11% | |
| 120 | 2% | 7% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 2% | 95% | |
| 68 | 4% | 93% | |
| 69 | 5% | 89% | |
| 70 | 4% | 84% | |
| 71 | 5% | 80% | |
| 72 | 5% | 75% | |
| 73 | 6% | 70% | |
| 74 | 5% | 64% | |
| 75 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 76 | 9% | 47% | |
| 77 | 6% | 38% | |
| 78 | 4% | 31% | |
| 79 | 4% | 27% | |
| 80 | 6% | 23% | |
| 81 | 4% | 17% | |
| 82 | 3% | 13% | |
| 83 | 2% | 9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 7% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 16 | 2% | 96% | |
| 17 | 4% | 94% | |
| 18 | 30% | 90% | |
| 19 | 8% | 60% | Last Result |
| 20 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 21 | 5% | 48% | |
| 22 | 6% | 44% | |
| 23 | 15% | 37% | |
| 24 | 12% | 22% | |
| 25 | 4% | 11% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98% | |
| 10 | 6% | 93% | |
| 11 | 6% | 87% | |
| 12 | 6% | 81% | |
| 13 | 12% | 75% | |
| 14 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 15 | 6% | 48% | |
| 16 | 8% | 42% | |
| 17 | 24% | 34% | Last Result |
| 18 | 3% | 11% | |
| 19 | 3% | 7% | |
| 20 | 3% | 5% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 2% | 98% | |
| 6 | 31% | 96% | |
| 7 | 11% | 65% | |
| 8 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 38% | |
| 10 | 17% | 27% | |
| 11 | 4% | 10% | |
| 12 | 2% | 6% | |
| 13 | 2% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 147 | 100% | 140–154 | 137–156 | 136–158 | 132–162 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 132 | 99.7% | 125–140 | 123–142 | 121–144 | 117–148 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 126 | 97% | 119–134 | 117–136 | 115–138 | 111–141 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 111 | 25% | 105–119 | 102–121 | 101–123 | 97–128 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 83 | 0% | 76–90 | 74–93 | 72–94 | 68–98 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 136 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 137 | 2% | 97% | |
| 138 | 2% | 95% | |
| 139 | 2% | 93% | |
| 140 | 3% | 91% | |
| 141 | 4% | 88% | |
| 142 | 5% | 84% | |
| 143 | 5% | 79% | |
| 144 | 7% | 74% | |
| 145 | 8% | 66% | Median |
| 146 | 8% | 59% | |
| 147 | 8% | 51% | |
| 148 | 8% | 43% | |
| 149 | 6% | 35% | |
| 150 | 5% | 30% | |
| 151 | 6% | 25% | |
| 152 | 4% | 19% | |
| 153 | 4% | 15% | |
| 154 | 3% | 11% | |
| 155 | 3% | 8% | |
| 156 | 2% | 5% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 2% | 94% | |
| 125 | 3% | 91% | |
| 126 | 3% | 88% | |
| 127 | 4% | 85% | |
| 128 | 5% | 81% | |
| 129 | 6% | 77% | |
| 130 | 7% | 71% | |
| 131 | 10% | 64% | Median |
| 132 | 7% | 54% | |
| 133 | 7% | 47% | |
| 134 | 6% | 40% | |
| 135 | 6% | 34% | |
| 136 | 5% | 28% | |
| 137 | 5% | 23% | |
| 138 | 5% | 18% | |
| 139 | 3% | 13% | |
| 140 | 2% | 10% | |
| 141 | 2% | 8% | |
| 142 | 2% | 5% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 97% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 96% | |
| 118 | 2% | 94% | |
| 119 | 3% | 92% | |
| 120 | 4% | 88% | |
| 121 | 6% | 85% | |
| 122 | 5% | 79% | |
| 123 | 7% | 74% | |
| 124 | 8% | 66% | |
| 125 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 126 | 7% | 52% | |
| 127 | 7% | 45% | |
| 128 | 6% | 38% | |
| 129 | 5% | 33% | |
| 130 | 5% | 27% | |
| 131 | 5% | 23% | |
| 132 | 4% | 18% | |
| 133 | 4% | 14% | |
| 134 | 3% | 10% | |
| 135 | 2% | 7% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 101 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 96% | |
| 103 | 2% | 94% | |
| 104 | 2% | 92% | |
| 105 | 3% | 90% | |
| 106 | 5% | 87% | |
| 107 | 6% | 83% | |
| 108 | 7% | 77% | |
| 109 | 6% | 70% | |
| 110 | 6% | 64% | |
| 111 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 112 | 6% | 50% | |
| 113 | 6% | 44% | |
| 114 | 7% | 38% | |
| 115 | 6% | 31% | |
| 116 | 5% | 25% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 20% | |
| 118 | 4% | 15% | |
| 119 | 3% | 11% | |
| 120 | 2% | 7% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 74 | 2% | 96% | |
| 75 | 3% | 95% | |
| 76 | 3% | 92% | |
| 77 | 4% | 89% | |
| 78 | 4% | 85% | |
| 79 | 6% | 81% | |
| 80 | 5% | 75% | |
| 81 | 6% | 70% | |
| 82 | 8% | 65% | |
| 83 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 84 | 8% | 49% | |
| 85 | 8% | 41% | |
| 86 | 7% | 34% | |
| 87 | 5% | 26% | |
| 88 | 5% | 21% | |
| 89 | 4% | 16% | |
| 90 | 3% | 12% | |
| 91 | 2% | 9% | |
| 92 | 2% | 7% | |
| 93 | 2% | 5% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã
- Fieldwork period: 2–5 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 605
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.41%