Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 8–14 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 41.5% 39.5–43.5% 39.0–44.1% 38.5–44.6% 37.5–45.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.8% 25.7–31.3% 24.9–32.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.8–8.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 115 109–119 107–121 106–123 103–127
Partido Social Democrata 89 78 71–81 70–83 68–84 65–88
Bloco de Esquerda 19 13 10–18 10–18 10–18 9–20
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 10–17 9–17 9–18 7–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 10 7–13 6–14 6–16 6–17
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.7% 99.6%  
104 0.3% 98.9%  
105 1.0% 98.7%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 3% 95%  
109 6% 92%  
110 4% 86%  
111 4% 82%  
112 6% 77%  
113 11% 71%  
114 4% 61%  
115 14% 57% Median
116 9% 43% Majority
117 11% 35%  
118 7% 24%  
119 8% 17%  
120 4% 9%  
121 1.3% 5%  
122 1.3% 4%  
123 0.5% 3%  
124 0.9% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.3%  
126 0.4% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.5% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.4%  
67 0.9% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 1.2% 96%  
70 4% 95%  
71 3% 91%  
72 2% 89%  
73 2% 87%  
74 3% 85%  
75 6% 82%  
76 10% 76%  
77 13% 66%  
78 17% 54% Median
79 10% 37%  
80 12% 27%  
81 6% 15%  
82 3% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 2%  
86 0.3% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 12% 98%  
11 9% 86%  
12 24% 78%  
13 7% 54% Median
14 7% 47%  
15 12% 40%  
16 4% 28%  
17 13% 24%  
18 10% 11%  
19 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.7%  
8 0.6% 99.3%  
9 8% 98.8%  
10 5% 91%  
11 6% 86%  
12 12% 80%  
13 19% 68% Median
14 18% 49%  
15 8% 31%  
16 5% 24%  
17 16% 19% Last Result
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 1.2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 5% 100%  
7 6% 95%  
8 10% 88%  
9 14% 78%  
10 32% 64% Median
11 9% 32%  
12 7% 23%  
13 7% 16%  
14 5% 9%  
15 2% 5%  
16 1.0% 3%  
17 1.1% 1.5%  
18 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 53% 71% Last Result, Median
2 17% 18%  
3 0.7% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 142 100% 137–148 135–149 135–151 131–154
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 128 99.9% 123–134 122–136 120–138 118–141
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 128 99.5% 122–133 121–135 119–136 116–140
Partido Socialista 86 115 43% 109–119 107–121 106–123 103–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 87 0% 82–92 80–93 78–94 75–98

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.3% 99.7%  
132 0.5% 99.4%  
133 0.6% 98.8%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 3% 98%  
136 2% 94%  
137 5% 92%  
138 7% 87%  
139 11% 80%  
140 10% 69%  
141 5% 59% Median
142 19% 54%  
143 5% 35%  
144 8% 30%  
145 5% 22%  
146 4% 17%  
147 2% 13%  
148 2% 10%  
149 4% 8%  
150 1.2% 4%  
151 0.9% 3%  
152 1.2% 2%  
153 0.4% 1.1%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.7% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 98.9%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 3% 96%  
123 5% 93%  
124 5% 88%  
125 7% 83%  
126 9% 77%  
127 11% 68%  
128 12% 56% Median
129 11% 45%  
130 9% 34%  
131 6% 24%  
132 4% 18%  
133 4% 14%  
134 1.2% 10%  
135 3% 9%  
136 2% 6%  
137 0.9% 4%  
138 1.3% 3%  
139 0.7% 2%  
140 0.2% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.1% 0.4%  
143 0.2% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.1% 99.5% Majority
117 0.4% 99.4%  
118 0.8% 99.0%  
119 1.0% 98%  
120 1.5% 97%  
121 2% 96%  
122 7% 93%  
123 3% 86%  
124 5% 84%  
125 6% 79%  
126 6% 73%  
127 9% 67%  
128 12% 58% Median
129 4% 46%  
130 12% 42%  
131 7% 30%  
132 9% 23%  
133 3% 13%  
134 3% 10%  
135 1.4% 6%  
136 2% 5%  
137 1.0% 2%  
138 0.7% 2%  
139 0.2% 0.8%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0.3% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.7% 99.6%  
104 0.3% 98.9%  
105 1.0% 98.7%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 3% 95%  
109 6% 92%  
110 4% 86%  
111 4% 82%  
112 6% 77%  
113 11% 71%  
114 4% 61%  
115 14% 57% Median
116 9% 43% Majority
117 11% 35%  
118 7% 24%  
119 8% 17%  
120 4% 9%  
121 1.3% 5%  
122 1.3% 4%  
123 0.5% 3%  
124 0.9% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.3%  
126 0.4% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.4%  
77 0.9% 98.9%  
78 1.5% 98%  
79 0.7% 97%  
80 4% 96%  
81 2% 92%  
82 2% 90%  
83 3% 88%  
84 4% 84%  
85 9% 80%  
86 8% 71%  
87 14% 63%  
88 9% 49% Median
89 7% 40%  
90 11% 33%  
91 9% 23%  
92 6% 14%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 5%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.4% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.2%  
98 0.5% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations