Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 5–9 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 37.7% | 35.2–40.3% | 34.5–41.0% | 33.9–41.6% | 32.7–42.9% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 27.7% | 25.4–30.1% | 24.8–30.8% | 24.2–31.4% | 23.2–32.6% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.2–12.2% | 7.8–12.7% | 7.2–13.5% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.7% | 5.8–10.1% | 5.3–10.9% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 6.7% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.2–8.6% | 4.9–9.0% | 4.4–9.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 107 | 99–114 | 96–116 | 95–118 | 90–121 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 77 | 70–84 | 68–87 | 66–89 | 63–93 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 20 | 18–24 | 17–26 | 15–27 | 12–28 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 15 | 10–19 | 9–20 | 9–21 | 7–23 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 10 | 7–15 | 6–17 | 6–19 | 6–20 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 98 | 2% | 94% | |
| 99 | 2% | 92% | |
| 100 | 2% | 89% | |
| 101 | 3% | 87% | |
| 102 | 8% | 84% | |
| 103 | 8% | 76% | |
| 104 | 5% | 69% | |
| 105 | 6% | 63% | |
| 106 | 5% | 57% | |
| 107 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 108 | 10% | 43% | |
| 109 | 7% | 33% | |
| 110 | 4% | 26% | |
| 111 | 3% | 22% | |
| 112 | 5% | 19% | |
| 113 | 2% | 14% | |
| 114 | 3% | 12% | |
| 115 | 3% | 9% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 6% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 3% | 93% | |
| 70 | 3% | 90% | |
| 71 | 2% | 87% | |
| 72 | 3% | 86% | |
| 73 | 6% | 82% | |
| 74 | 5% | 77% | |
| 75 | 12% | 72% | |
| 76 | 6% | 60% | |
| 77 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 46% | |
| 79 | 3% | 36% | |
| 80 | 6% | 33% | |
| 81 | 8% | 28% | |
| 82 | 4% | 20% | |
| 83 | 5% | 16% | |
| 84 | 2% | 11% | |
| 85 | 2% | 9% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 16 | 2% | 97% | |
| 17 | 4% | 95% | |
| 18 | 32% | 91% | |
| 19 | 6% | 60% | Last Result |
| 20 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 21 | 6% | 49% | |
| 22 | 5% | 43% | |
| 23 | 15% | 38% | |
| 24 | 16% | 24% | |
| 25 | 2% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 6% | |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 3% | 98% | |
| 10 | 5% | 95% | |
| 11 | 5% | 90% | |
| 12 | 4% | 85% | |
| 13 | 13% | 81% | |
| 14 | 15% | 69% | |
| 15 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 48% | |
| 17 | 27% | 40% | Last Result |
| 18 | 3% | 13% | |
| 19 | 3% | 10% | |
| 20 | 4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 5% | 94% | |
| 8 | 6% | 88% | |
| 9 | 11% | 82% | |
| 10 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 11 | 9% | 42% | |
| 12 | 9% | 33% | |
| 13 | 8% | 24% | |
| 14 | 6% | 16% | |
| 15 | 3% | 11% | |
| 16 | 3% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 18 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 19 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 142 | 100% | 136–150 | 131–152 | 129–153 | 126–156 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 127 | 97% | 120–134 | 117–136 | 115–138 | 111–142 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 121 | 92% | 117–131 | 109–132 | 107–132 | 105–134 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 107 | 6% | 99–114 | 96–116 | 95–118 | 90–121 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 88 | 0% | 80–94 | 78–99 | 77–101 | 74–104 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 128 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 129 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 136 | 2% | 91% | |
| 137 | 5% | 89% | |
| 138 | 6% | 84% | |
| 139 | 9% | 78% | |
| 140 | 10% | 69% | |
| 141 | 7% | 59% | |
| 142 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 143 | 11% | 47% | |
| 144 | 7% | 36% | |
| 145 | 7% | 29% | |
| 146 | 2% | 22% | |
| 147 | 4% | 20% | |
| 148 | 2% | 16% | |
| 149 | 2% | 14% | |
| 150 | 4% | 12% | |
| 151 | 2% | 9% | |
| 152 | 2% | 6% | |
| 153 | 2% | 4% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 97% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 118 | 2% | 95% | |
| 119 | 3% | 93% | |
| 120 | 4% | 90% | |
| 121 | 3% | 86% | |
| 122 | 5% | 83% | |
| 123 | 6% | 78% | |
| 124 | 3% | 73% | |
| 125 | 8% | 70% | |
| 126 | 9% | 62% | |
| 127 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 128 | 4% | 47% | |
| 129 | 6% | 43% | |
| 130 | 8% | 37% | |
| 131 | 6% | 29% | |
| 132 | 6% | 23% | |
| 133 | 5% | 17% | |
| 134 | 2% | 12% | |
| 135 | 3% | 10% | |
| 136 | 2% | 7% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 108 | 2% | 97% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 116 | 2% | 92% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 90% | |
| 118 | 5% | 89% | |
| 119 | 16% | 84% | |
| 120 | 18% | 68% | |
| 121 | 15% | 50% | |
| 122 | 9% | 35% | Median |
| 123 | 4% | 27% | |
| 124 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 21% | |
| 127 | 2% | 20% | |
| 128 | 2% | 19% | |
| 129 | 4% | 17% | |
| 130 | 2% | 13% | |
| 131 | 4% | 10% | |
| 132 | 5% | 7% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 98 | 2% | 94% | |
| 99 | 2% | 92% | |
| 100 | 2% | 89% | |
| 101 | 3% | 87% | |
| 102 | 8% | 84% | |
| 103 | 8% | 76% | |
| 104 | 5% | 69% | |
| 105 | 6% | 63% | |
| 106 | 5% | 57% | |
| 107 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 108 | 10% | 43% | |
| 109 | 7% | 33% | |
| 110 | 4% | 26% | |
| 111 | 3% | 22% | |
| 112 | 5% | 19% | |
| 113 | 2% | 14% | |
| 114 | 3% | 12% | |
| 115 | 3% | 9% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 6% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 2% | 96% | |
| 79 | 2% | 94% | |
| 80 | 4% | 91% | |
| 81 | 2% | 88% | |
| 82 | 2% | 86% | |
| 83 | 4% | 84% | |
| 84 | 2% | 80% | |
| 85 | 7% | 78% | |
| 86 | 7% | 71% | |
| 87 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 88 | 6% | 53% | |
| 89 | 7% | 48% | |
| 90 | 10% | 41% | |
| 91 | 9% | 31% | |
| 92 | 6% | 22% | |
| 93 | 5% | 16% | |
| 94 | 2% | 11% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã
- Fieldwork period: 5–9 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 600
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.78%