Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 3–9 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 41.0% 39.0–43.0% 38.5–43.5% 38.0–44.0% 37.0–45.0%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.8% 24.5–31.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 113 108–119 106–120 105–121 102–125
Partido Social Democrata 89 75 71–80 69–82 67–84 65–87
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 11–18 10–18 10–18 9–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 10–17 9–18 9–18 8–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 10 9–15 8–16 7–18 6–19
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.8% 99.6%  
103 0.2% 98.8%  
104 0.8% 98.5%  
105 2% 98%  
106 2% 96%  
107 0.8% 94%  
108 5% 93%  
109 6% 88%  
110 7% 82%  
111 11% 75%  
112 10% 64%  
113 7% 55% Median
114 6% 47%  
115 7% 41%  
116 10% 34% Majority
117 3% 24%  
118 11% 21%  
119 5% 10%  
120 3% 6%  
121 0.8% 3%  
122 1.1% 2%  
123 0.2% 1.1%  
124 0.4% 0.9%  
125 0.2% 0.6%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 1.0% 97%  
69 3% 96%  
70 2% 93%  
71 5% 91%  
72 7% 86%  
73 4% 79%  
74 14% 75%  
75 14% 61% Median
76 9% 47%  
77 10% 38%  
78 7% 28%  
79 9% 22%  
80 4% 13%  
81 2% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 1.4% 4%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 0.5% 2%  
86 0.3% 1.2%  
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 7% 99.3%  
11 3% 92%  
12 9% 89%  
13 13% 80%  
14 10% 67%  
15 10% 57% Median
16 8% 47%  
17 19% 38%  
18 18% 20%  
19 0.7% 2% Last Result
20 0.4% 1.4%  
21 0.5% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.5%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 0.4% 99.7%  
9 4% 99.2%  
10 7% 95%  
11 6% 88%  
12 7% 82%  
13 12% 75%  
14 23% 64% Median
15 8% 41%  
16 8% 33%  
17 19% 25% Last Result
18 4% 6%  
19 0.8% 2%  
20 1.1% 1.4%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.4% 100%  
7 2% 98.6%  
8 6% 97%  
9 5% 90%  
10 36% 85% Median
11 7% 49%  
12 11% 42%  
13 12% 31%  
14 7% 19%  
15 5% 12%  
16 2% 7%  
17 2% 5%  
18 2% 3% Last Result
19 1.2% 1.4%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 54% 64% Last Result, Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 143 100% 137–147 135–149 133–151 131–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 128 99.8% 123–134 121–135 120–136 117–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 127 99.5% 122–133 120–135 119–136 116–138
Partido Socialista 86 113 34% 108–119 106–120 105–121 102–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 87 0% 82–93 80–94 79–95 76–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0.1% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.7%  
131 0.5% 99.5%  
132 0.7% 99.0%  
133 0.9% 98%  
134 1.5% 97%  
135 3% 96%  
136 3% 93%  
137 4% 90%  
138 6% 86%  
139 3% 80%  
140 8% 78%  
141 8% 70%  
142 12% 63% Median
143 9% 51%  
144 9% 41%  
145 13% 32%  
146 3% 19%  
147 6% 16%  
148 2% 10%  
149 3% 8%  
150 2% 5%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.7% 2%  
153 0.5% 1.0%  
154 0.2% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.8% Majority
117 0.5% 99.6%  
118 0.8% 99.2%  
119 0.9% 98%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 2% 96%  
122 3% 94%  
123 5% 91%  
124 6% 86%  
125 3% 81%  
126 8% 77%  
127 9% 69%  
128 17% 60% Median
129 4% 44%  
130 10% 39%  
131 7% 30%  
132 4% 22%  
133 7% 18%  
134 5% 11%  
135 2% 6%  
136 2% 4%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.5%  
139 0.3% 0.9%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.1% 99.6%  
116 0.4% 99.5% Majority
117 0.7% 99.1%  
118 0.7% 98%  
119 2% 98%  
120 2% 96%  
121 3% 94%  
122 3% 91%  
123 4% 87%  
124 8% 83%  
125 11% 75%  
126 11% 64%  
127 6% 53% Median
128 4% 47%  
129 7% 43%  
130 8% 37%  
131 8% 28%  
132 9% 20%  
133 3% 11%  
134 3% 8%  
135 2% 5%  
136 0.5% 3%  
137 1.0% 2%  
138 0.8% 1.2%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.8% 99.6%  
103 0.2% 98.8%  
104 0.8% 98.5%  
105 2% 98%  
106 2% 96%  
107 0.8% 94%  
108 5% 93%  
109 6% 88%  
110 7% 82%  
111 11% 75%  
112 10% 64%  
113 7% 55% Median
114 6% 47%  
115 7% 41%  
116 10% 34% Majority
117 3% 24%  
118 11% 21%  
119 5% 10%  
120 3% 6%  
121 0.8% 3%  
122 1.1% 2%  
123 0.2% 1.1%  
124 0.4% 0.9%  
125 0.2% 0.6%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.6%  
77 0.6% 99.0%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 2% 93%  
82 5% 90%  
83 4% 86%  
84 8% 81%  
85 10% 73% Median
86 10% 63%  
87 13% 53%  
88 10% 40%  
89 7% 30%  
90 3% 23%  
91 4% 19%  
92 5% 16%  
93 3% 11%  
94 3% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations