Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 9–12 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 37.0% | 34.6–39.6% | 33.9–40.3% | 33.3–41.0% | 32.1–42.2% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 27.7% | 25.5–30.2% | 24.9–30.9% | 24.3–31.5% | 23.3–32.6% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.5–12.6% | 8.1–13.0% | 7.5–13.9% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.6–9.1% | 5.3–9.5% | 4.8–10.3% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 6.3% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.1–9.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 107 | 97–114 | 96–115 | 94–117 | 91–122 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 78 | 71–87 | 68–89 | 68–89 | 64–94 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 23 | 18–26 | 18–27 | 17–27 | 14–30 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 13 | 9–18 | 9–19 | 7–19 | 6–21 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 10 | 6–13 | 6–16 | 6–18 | 6–20 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 97% | |
| 96 | 2% | 95% | |
| 97 | 4% | 94% | |
| 98 | 3% | 90% | |
| 99 | 3% | 87% | |
| 100 | 3% | 84% | |
| 101 | 2% | 81% | |
| 102 | 7% | 79% | |
| 103 | 5% | 72% | |
| 104 | 3% | 67% | |
| 105 | 2% | 65% | |
| 106 | 7% | 63% | |
| 107 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 108 | 19% | 45% | |
| 109 | 5% | 27% | |
| 110 | 3% | 22% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 112 | 2% | 17% | |
| 113 | 3% | 16% | |
| 114 | 6% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 7% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 3% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | |
| 69 | 2% | 95% | |
| 70 | 2% | 93% | |
| 71 | 3% | 92% | |
| 72 | 1.5% | 89% | |
| 73 | 4% | 87% | |
| 74 | 4% | 84% | |
| 75 | 11% | 80% | |
| 76 | 11% | 69% | |
| 77 | 7% | 57% | |
| 78 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 79 | 8% | 43% | |
| 80 | 3% | 35% | |
| 81 | 4% | 32% | |
| 82 | 5% | 28% | |
| 83 | 3% | 22% | |
| 84 | 4% | 20% | |
| 85 | 2% | 16% | |
| 86 | 2% | 14% | |
| 87 | 4% | 12% | |
| 88 | 2% | 8% | |
| 89 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 17 | 2% | 98% | |
| 18 | 24% | 95% | |
| 19 | 4% | 71% | Last Result |
| 20 | 3% | 67% | |
| 21 | 7% | 65% | |
| 22 | 4% | 57% | |
| 23 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 37% | |
| 25 | 3% | 14% | |
| 26 | 4% | 12% | |
| 27 | 5% | 8% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 97% | |
| 9 | 7% | 95% | |
| 10 | 3% | 88% | |
| 11 | 4% | 85% | |
| 12 | 10% | 81% | |
| 13 | 29% | 72% | Median |
| 14 | 12% | 43% | |
| 15 | 4% | 30% | |
| 16 | 3% | 27% | |
| 17 | 12% | 23% | Last Result |
| 18 | 6% | 11% | |
| 19 | 4% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 5% | 88% | |
| 8 | 5% | 83% | |
| 9 | 9% | 78% | |
| 10 | 35% | 69% | Median |
| 11 | 6% | 34% | |
| 12 | 12% | 28% | |
| 13 | 7% | 16% | |
| 14 | 3% | 10% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 19 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 142 | 100% | 133–149 | 131–151 | 129–152 | 125–156 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 129 | 98% | 119–135 | 117–138 | 116–139 | 112–143 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 120 | 79% | 111–127 | 109–128 | 108–130 | 102–135 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 107 | 3% | 97–114 | 96–115 | 94–117 | 91–122 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 88 | 0% | 81–97 | 79–99 | 78–101 | 74–105 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 131 | 3% | 96% | |
| 132 | 2% | 93% | |
| 133 | 2% | 91% | |
| 134 | 2% | 89% | |
| 135 | 4% | 87% | |
| 136 | 3% | 83% | |
| 137 | 3% | 79% | |
| 138 | 6% | 76% | |
| 139 | 7% | 70% | |
| 140 | 3% | 63% | |
| 141 | 3% | 60% | |
| 142 | 9% | 57% | |
| 143 | 6% | 48% | Median |
| 144 | 11% | 41% | |
| 145 | 9% | 30% | |
| 146 | 4% | 21% | |
| 147 | 3% | 18% | |
| 148 | 4% | 15% | |
| 149 | 3% | 11% | |
| 150 | 2% | 7% | |
| 151 | 3% | 6% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 118 | 3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 2% | 91% | |
| 120 | 2% | 90% | |
| 121 | 4% | 88% | |
| 122 | 3% | 84% | |
| 123 | 3% | 80% | |
| 124 | 7% | 77% | |
| 125 | 7% | 71% | |
| 126 | 6% | 64% | |
| 127 | 4% | 59% | |
| 128 | 3% | 55% | |
| 129 | 8% | 52% | |
| 130 | 4% | 44% | Median |
| 131 | 12% | 39% | |
| 132 | 9% | 28% | |
| 133 | 5% | 19% | |
| 134 | 2% | 14% | |
| 135 | 3% | 13% | |
| 136 | 3% | 9% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 138 | 3% | 6% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 109 | 3% | 97% | |
| 110 | 2% | 94% | |
| 111 | 6% | 91% | |
| 112 | 3% | 86% | |
| 113 | 3% | 83% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 80% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 116 | 2% | 79% | Majority |
| 117 | 4% | 77% | |
| 118 | 4% | 73% | |
| 119 | 11% | 69% | |
| 120 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 121 | 17% | 45% | |
| 122 | 2% | 29% | |
| 123 | 3% | 26% | |
| 124 | 3% | 23% | |
| 125 | 2% | 20% | |
| 126 | 3% | 18% | |
| 127 | 6% | 15% | |
| 128 | 5% | 10% | |
| 129 | 2% | 4% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 97% | |
| 96 | 2% | 95% | |
| 97 | 4% | 94% | |
| 98 | 3% | 90% | |
| 99 | 3% | 87% | |
| 100 | 3% | 84% | |
| 101 | 2% | 81% | |
| 102 | 7% | 79% | |
| 103 | 5% | 72% | |
| 104 | 3% | 67% | |
| 105 | 2% | 65% | |
| 106 | 7% | 63% | |
| 107 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 108 | 19% | 45% | |
| 109 | 5% | 27% | |
| 110 | 3% | 22% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 112 | 2% | 17% | |
| 113 | 3% | 16% | |
| 114 | 6% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 7% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 3% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 79 | 3% | 97% | |
| 80 | 2% | 94% | |
| 81 | 3% | 93% | |
| 82 | 4% | 89% | |
| 83 | 3% | 85% | |
| 84 | 4% | 82% | |
| 85 | 9% | 79% | |
| 86 | 11% | 70% | |
| 87 | 6% | 59% | |
| 88 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 89 | 3% | 43% | |
| 90 | 3% | 40% | |
| 91 | 7% | 37% | |
| 92 | 6% | 30% | |
| 93 | 3% | 24% | |
| 94 | 3% | 21% | |
| 95 | 4% | 17% | |
| 96 | 2% | 13% | |
| 97 | 2% | 11% | |
| 98 | 2% | 9% | |
| 99 | 3% | 7% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 101 | 2% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 108 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã
- Fieldwork period: 9–12 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 602
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.22%