Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 4–11 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 42.0% 40.1–44.0% 39.5–44.6% 39.0–45.1% 38.1–46.1%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.0% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 116 111–120 110–122 108–125 105–129
Partido Social Democrata 89 73 69–77 66–78 64–80 63–82
Bloco de Esquerda 19 14 10–18 10–18 10–18 10–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 13 10–18 9–18 8–18 7–20
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 10–17 9–17 9–17 7–19
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.6% 99.8%  
106 0.6% 99.3%  
107 0.8% 98.7%  
108 0.5% 98%  
109 1.1% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 5% 94%  
112 11% 89%  
113 7% 78%  
114 3% 72%  
115 12% 69%  
116 13% 57% Median, Majority
117 12% 44%  
118 8% 31%  
119 7% 24%  
120 9% 17%  
121 3% 8%  
122 1.1% 5%  
123 0.2% 4%  
124 1.3% 4%  
125 1.4% 3%  
126 0.2% 1.2%  
127 0.3% 0.9%  
128 0.1% 0.7%  
129 0.3% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 2% 99.0%  
65 0.8% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 2% 95%  
68 1.4% 92%  
69 6% 91%  
70 7% 85%  
71 4% 78%  
72 17% 75%  
73 10% 57% Median
74 6% 47%  
75 21% 41%  
76 6% 20%  
77 7% 14%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.1% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.2%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 14% 99.7%  
11 0.5% 86%  
12 0.4% 85%  
13 12% 85%  
14 30% 73% Median
15 22% 44%  
16 3% 22%  
17 2% 19%  
18 16% 17%  
19 0% 0.6% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.5%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.2%  
9 2% 97%  
10 18% 95%  
11 10% 77%  
12 12% 66%  
13 21% 54% Median
14 7% 34%  
15 7% 27%  
16 2% 20%  
17 5% 18%  
18 11% 13% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.6%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.7%  
8 1.1% 99.4%  
9 7% 98%  
10 2% 91%  
11 14% 90%  
12 7% 76%  
13 6% 68%  
14 42% 62% Median
15 5% 20%  
16 2% 15%  
17 12% 13% Last Result
18 1.0% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.6%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 28% 30% Last Result
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 144 100% 139–148 137–150 136–151 133–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 130 100% 125–135 123–137 122–139 120–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 129 99.9% 125–134 124–134 123–136 119–140
Partido Socialista 86 116 57% 111–120 110–122 108–125 105–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 86 0% 82–91 80–92 79–93 74–96

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.2% 99.7%  
134 0.3% 99.4%  
135 0.4% 99.1%  
136 2% 98.7%  
137 2% 96%  
138 3% 94%  
139 5% 91%  
140 9% 86%  
141 5% 76%  
142 7% 71%  
143 14% 64%  
144 8% 50% Median
145 14% 42%  
146 3% 28%  
147 8% 25%  
148 8% 16%  
149 3% 9%  
150 3% 6%  
151 1.0% 3%  
152 0.5% 2%  
153 0.2% 1.2%  
154 0.2% 1.0%  
155 0.3% 0.8%  
156 0.3% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 100% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 1.0% 99.6%  
121 0.4% 98.6%  
122 2% 98%  
123 1.3% 96%  
124 0.5% 94%  
125 5% 94%  
126 9% 89%  
127 5% 80%  
128 8% 75%  
129 7% 67%  
130 11% 60% Median
131 14% 49%  
132 9% 34%  
133 3% 25%  
134 8% 22%  
135 6% 15%  
136 3% 8%  
137 1.5% 6%  
138 1.1% 4%  
139 1.2% 3%  
140 0.1% 2%  
141 0.2% 2%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.4% 0.7%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.2% 99.5%  
120 0.4% 99.4%  
121 0.2% 99.0%  
122 0.9% 98.8%  
123 2% 98%  
124 2% 96%  
125 5% 94%  
126 13% 89%  
127 6% 76%  
128 7% 70%  
129 18% 64%  
130 14% 46% Median
131 7% 32%  
132 9% 26%  
133 6% 17%  
134 6% 11%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.7% 3%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.6% 2%  
139 0.3% 0.9%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.6% 99.8%  
106 0.6% 99.3%  
107 0.8% 98.7%  
108 0.5% 98%  
109 1.1% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 5% 94%  
112 11% 89%  
113 7% 78%  
114 3% 72%  
115 12% 69%  
116 13% 57% Median, Majority
117 12% 44%  
118 8% 31%  
119 7% 24%  
120 9% 17%  
121 3% 8%  
122 1.1% 5%  
123 0.2% 4%  
124 1.3% 4%  
125 1.4% 3%  
126 0.2% 1.2%  
127 0.3% 0.9%  
128 0.1% 0.7%  
129 0.3% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.2%  
76 0.2% 99.1%  
77 0.2% 98.9%  
78 0.7% 98.7%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 2% 93%  
82 10% 91%  
83 7% 81%  
84 5% 74%  
85 12% 69%  
86 14% 57% Median
87 8% 43%  
88 10% 35%  
89 5% 25%  
90 8% 21%  
91 5% 13%  
92 4% 8%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.2% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.1% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations