Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 5–12 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 41.4% 39.4–43.4% 38.8–44.0% 38.4–44.4% 37.4–45.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 27.5% 25.7–29.3% 25.2–29.9% 24.8–30.3% 24.0–31.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 115 109–119 108–121 107–122 103–127
Partido Social Democrata 89 74 68–80 67–81 66–82 63–85
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 12–18 10–18 10–18 9–21
CDS–Partido Popular 18 14 10–18 10–19 9–19 8–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 12 9–16 8–17 8–17 6–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.3% 99.4%  
105 0.4% 99.1%  
106 0.8% 98.7%  
107 2% 98%  
108 3% 96%  
109 4% 93%  
110 5% 89%  
111 4% 84%  
112 8% 80%  
113 9% 72%  
114 6% 63%  
115 8% 57% Median
116 12% 48% Majority
117 14% 36%  
118 8% 23%  
119 5% 15%  
120 3% 10%  
121 3% 7%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.5% 2%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.2% 0.9%  
127 0.4% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.8% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 5% 94%  
69 3% 88%  
70 5% 86%  
71 7% 81%  
72 5% 73%  
73 6% 69%  
74 17% 63% Median
75 12% 46%  
76 9% 34%  
77 9% 25%  
78 3% 16%  
79 3% 13%  
80 4% 10%  
81 3% 7%  
82 1.5% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.3%  
85 0.5% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 6% 99.4%  
11 3% 94%  
12 6% 90%  
13 16% 85%  
14 17% 69%  
15 7% 52% Median
16 10% 45%  
17 15% 35%  
18 18% 20%  
19 0.8% 2% Last Result
20 0.3% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.5%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.4% 99.9%  
8 1.0% 99.5%  
9 2% 98%  
10 13% 97%  
11 10% 83%  
12 15% 73%  
13 5% 58%  
14 18% 53% Median
15 12% 35%  
16 6% 23%  
17 3% 17%  
18 4% 14% Last Result
19 9% 10%  
20 0.4% 0.9%  
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 0.5% 98%  
8 4% 98%  
9 9% 94%  
10 10% 85%  
11 16% 75%  
12 13% 59% Median
13 7% 46%  
14 22% 39%  
15 4% 17%  
16 4% 12%  
17 7% 8% Last Result
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 25% 27% Last Result
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 142 100% 137–147 134–149 133–150 130–154
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 130 99.9% 125–134 122–136 121–138 118–142
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 127 99.3% 122–133 120–134 118–135 115–139
Partido Socialista 86 115 48% 109–119 108–121 107–122 103–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 87 0% 82–93 80–96 80–97 76–100

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 100%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.2% 99.8%  
130 0.5% 99.6%  
131 0.4% 99.1%  
132 0.8% 98.7%  
133 2% 98%  
134 2% 96%  
135 1.3% 94%  
136 3% 93%  
137 3% 90%  
138 3% 87%  
139 12% 83%  
140 6% 71%  
141 6% 66%  
142 11% 59% Median
143 9% 49%  
144 13% 40%  
145 11% 27%  
146 5% 16%  
147 3% 12%  
148 1.3% 8%  
149 2% 7%  
150 3% 5%  
151 0.6% 2%  
152 0.8% 2%  
153 0.2% 0.7%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.4% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.2%  
120 0.7% 98.8%  
121 1.3% 98%  
122 3% 97%  
123 2% 94%  
124 2% 92%  
125 8% 90%  
126 4% 82%  
127 5% 78%  
128 7% 74%  
129 11% 66%  
130 10% 55% Median
131 11% 46%  
132 10% 35%  
133 12% 25%  
134 4% 13%  
135 2% 9%  
136 3% 7%  
137 0.9% 4%  
138 1.1% 3%  
139 0.2% 2%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.3% 1.0%  
142 0.3% 0.7%  
143 0.1% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.6%  
116 0.3% 99.3% Majority
117 0.3% 99.0%  
118 1.3% 98.7%  
119 1.4% 97%  
120 2% 96%  
121 3% 94%  
122 7% 91%  
123 5% 83%  
124 6% 78%  
125 7% 73%  
126 10% 66%  
127 8% 56% Median
128 11% 48%  
129 6% 37%  
130 6% 31%  
131 11% 24%  
132 2% 13%  
133 6% 12%  
134 0.9% 5%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.5% 2%  
138 0.4% 1.1%  
139 0.3% 0.7%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.3% 99.4%  
105 0.4% 99.1%  
106 0.8% 98.7%  
107 2% 98%  
108 3% 96%  
109 4% 93%  
110 5% 89%  
111 4% 84%  
112 8% 80%  
113 9% 72%  
114 6% 63%  
115 8% 57% Median
116 12% 48% Majority
117 14% 36%  
118 8% 23%  
119 5% 15%  
120 3% 10%  
121 3% 7%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.5% 2%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.2% 0.9%  
127 0.4% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.7%  
76 0.2% 99.5%  
77 0.4% 99.4%  
78 0.8% 99.0%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 3% 98%  
81 2% 95%  
82 3% 93%  
83 3% 90%  
84 6% 87%  
85 9% 80%  
86 15% 72%  
87 10% 57%  
88 9% 47% Median
89 6% 38%  
90 5% 32%  
91 13% 28%  
92 3% 15%  
93 3% 12%  
94 2% 9%  
95 0.9% 6%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.5% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.3% 1.0%  
100 0.4% 0.7%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations