Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 9–12 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.8% 35.3–40.4% 34.6–41.1% 34.0–41.8% 32.8–43.0%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 26.4% 24.2–28.8% 23.5–29.4% 23.0–30.0% 22.0–31.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.1% 7.8–10.8% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.7% 6.5–12.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.6% 6.4–9.2% 6.1–9.6% 5.8–10.0% 5.2–10.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.1% 5.0–7.6% 4.7–8.0% 4.5–8.4% 4.0–9.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 110 102–117 100–120 98–122 94–126
Partido Social Democrata 89 75 67–82 65–85 64–87 60–91
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–24 14–24 13–25 10–27
CDS–Partido Popular 18 14 10–19 10–21 9–22 6–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 11 7–16 6–17 6–17 5–19

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.6%  
95 0.4% 99.3%  
96 0.5% 98.9%  
97 0.6% 98%  
98 0.8% 98%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 3% 92%  
103 2% 89%  
104 3% 86%  
105 4% 83%  
106 5% 79%  
107 8% 74%  
108 6% 67%  
109 6% 60%  
110 8% 54% Median
111 5% 46%  
112 5% 41%  
113 5% 36%  
114 6% 31%  
115 6% 25%  
116 5% 18% Majority
117 4% 13%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 1.4% 5%  
121 1.1% 4%  
122 0.8% 3%  
123 0.6% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.2%  
125 0.3% 1.0%  
126 0.2% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 99.1%  
63 0.7% 98.6%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 4% 93%  
68 4% 89%  
69 3% 84%  
70 4% 82%  
71 3% 78%  
72 4% 75%  
73 6% 71%  
74 7% 65%  
75 9% 57% Median
76 8% 48%  
77 7% 40%  
78 5% 33%  
79 5% 28%  
80 5% 23%  
81 5% 18%  
82 4% 14%  
83 3% 10%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.1% 4%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
90 0.2% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 0.3% 99.4%  
12 2% 99.2%  
13 2% 98%  
14 4% 95%  
15 3% 91%  
16 4% 89%  
17 6% 84%  
18 39% 78% Median
19 7% 39% Last Result
20 4% 33%  
21 3% 29%  
22 4% 26%  
23 7% 21%  
24 11% 14%  
25 1.0% 3%  
26 0.8% 2%  
27 0.6% 1.1%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.5%  
8 0.9% 99.0%  
9 3% 98%  
10 11% 95%  
11 7% 84%  
12 9% 77%  
13 12% 68%  
14 9% 56% Median
15 4% 47%  
16 8% 43%  
17 7% 36%  
18 6% 28% Last Result
19 13% 23%  
20 4% 10%  
21 3% 6%  
22 0.7% 3%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 7% 98%  
7 5% 91%  
8 9% 87%  
9 15% 77%  
10 11% 63%  
11 12% 51% Median
12 8% 39%  
13 7% 32%  
14 12% 24%  
15 2% 12%  
16 3% 10%  
17 6% 7% Last Result
18 0.4% 1.1%  
19 0.3% 0.6%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 140 100% 132–148 130–150 127–152 123–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 129 98.6% 121–137 119–139 117–141 113–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 121 81% 113–129 111–131 108–133 104–137
Partido Socialista 86 110 18% 102–117 100–120 98–122 94–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 90 0% 82–98 80–100 78–103 74–107

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.3% 99.5%  
125 0.3% 99.1%  
126 0.5% 98.8%  
127 0.9% 98%  
128 0.8% 97%  
129 1.1% 97%  
130 2% 95%  
131 2% 94%  
132 3% 92%  
133 3% 89%  
134 3% 85%  
135 4% 83%  
136 6% 79%  
137 6% 73%  
138 7% 67%  
139 6% 60% Median
140 5% 53%  
141 6% 48%  
142 6% 42%  
143 7% 36%  
144 7% 29%  
145 4% 22%  
146 4% 17%  
147 2% 13%  
148 3% 11%  
149 2% 8%  
150 2% 6%  
151 1.3% 4%  
152 0.8% 3%  
153 0.6% 2%  
154 0.4% 1.3%  
155 0.3% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.2% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.3%  
115 0.4% 99.0%  
116 0.6% 98.6% Majority
117 0.7% 98%  
118 1.3% 97%  
119 2% 96%  
120 2% 94%  
121 2% 92%  
122 3% 90%  
123 4% 87%  
124 4% 83%  
125 6% 79%  
126 6% 73%  
127 6% 66%  
128 7% 61% Median
129 6% 54%  
130 6% 48%  
131 6% 42%  
132 6% 36%  
133 8% 30%  
134 4% 22%  
135 5% 18%  
136 2% 13%  
137 2% 11%  
138 2% 8%  
139 2% 6%  
140 1.2% 4%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.4% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.2%  
145 0.2% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.3% 99.3%  
106 0.4% 99.0%  
107 0.5% 98.6%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 1.0% 97%  
110 1.1% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 2% 94%  
113 3% 92%  
114 4% 89%  
115 4% 85%  
116 4% 81% Majority
117 4% 77%  
118 6% 73%  
119 7% 67%  
120 6% 60%  
121 6% 54% Median
122 5% 48%  
123 6% 42%  
124 6% 37%  
125 7% 30%  
126 6% 24%  
127 4% 18%  
128 3% 14%  
129 3% 11%  
130 2% 8%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.3% 4%  
133 0.8% 3%  
134 0.5% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.3%  
136 0.3% 0.9%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.6%  
95 0.4% 99.3%  
96 0.5% 98.9%  
97 0.6% 98%  
98 0.8% 98%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 3% 92%  
103 2% 89%  
104 3% 86%  
105 4% 83%  
106 5% 79%  
107 8% 74%  
108 6% 67%  
109 6% 60%  
110 8% 54% Median
111 5% 46%  
112 5% 41%  
113 5% 36%  
114 6% 31%  
115 6% 25%  
116 5% 18% Majority
117 4% 13%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 1.4% 5%  
121 1.1% 4%  
122 0.8% 3%  
123 0.6% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.2%  
125 0.3% 1.0%  
126 0.2% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.4%  
76 0.4% 99.1%  
77 0.6% 98.7%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 1.3% 97%  
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 94%  
82 3% 92%  
83 2% 89%  
84 4% 87%  
85 4% 83%  
86 7% 78%  
87 7% 71%  
88 6% 64%  
89 6% 58% Median
90 5% 52%  
91 6% 47%  
92 7% 40%  
93 6% 33%  
94 6% 27%  
95 4% 21%  
96 3% 17%  
97 3% 15%  
98 3% 11%  
99 2% 8%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.1% 5%  
102 0.8% 3%  
103 0.9% 3%  
104 0.5% 2%  
105 0.3% 1.2%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations