Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 7–14 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 41.8% 39.9–43.9% 39.3–44.4% 38.9–44.9% 37.9–45.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 26.8% 25.1–28.7% 24.6–29.2% 24.2–29.6% 23.4–30.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 7.7% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 117 113–122 110–125 109–127 106–130
Partido Social Democrata 89 73 68–78 66–79 64–81 61–84
Bloco de Esquerda 19 14 10–18 10–18 10–18 9–19
CDS–Partido Popular 18 11 9–14 8–17 7–18 6–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 9–17 9–17 8–17 6–19
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.3% 99.7%  
107 0.7% 99.4%  
108 1.0% 98.7%  
109 1.5% 98%  
110 2% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 2% 92%  
113 7% 91%  
114 7% 83%  
115 8% 77%  
116 9% 68% Majority
117 14% 59% Median
118 9% 45%  
119 15% 35%  
120 4% 20%  
121 3% 17%  
122 4% 14%  
123 3% 10%  
124 2% 7%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 1.3% 3%  
128 0.2% 1.3%  
129 0.6% 1.2%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 0.5% 99.1%  
64 1.4% 98.6%  
65 2% 97%  
66 0.7% 95%  
67 3% 95%  
68 4% 92%  
69 5% 88%  
70 6% 82%  
71 11% 76%  
72 5% 66%  
73 10% 60% Median
74 11% 50%  
75 5% 39%  
76 12% 34%  
77 8% 21%  
78 5% 13%  
79 3% 8%  
80 0.9% 5%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.8%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.9%  
10 10% 98.6%  
11 7% 88%  
12 8% 82%  
13 12% 74%  
14 22% 62% Median
15 10% 41%  
16 5% 31%  
17 14% 26%  
18 11% 12%  
19 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 2% 99.3%  
8 4% 97%  
9 7% 93%  
10 27% 86%  
11 20% 58% Median
12 13% 38%  
13 11% 25%  
14 5% 14%  
15 3% 9%  
16 1.2% 7%  
17 2% 5%  
18 1.0% 3% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.0%  
8 2% 98%  
9 14% 97%  
10 4% 82%  
11 12% 78%  
12 9% 66%  
13 7% 56% Median
14 28% 49%  
15 7% 21%  
16 4% 14%  
17 8% 10% Last Result
18 0.9% 2%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 57% 90% Last Result, Median
2 30% 34%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0.3% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 144 100% 139–149 137–151 136–153 132–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 131 100% 126–137 124–139 123–141 120–144
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 130 99.9% 124–135 122–138 121–139 118–142
Partido Socialista 86 117 68% 113–122 110–125 109–127 106–130
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 85 0% 79–90 77–92 76–93 73–96

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.3% 99.8%  
133 0.5% 99.4%  
134 0.4% 99.0%  
135 0.8% 98.6%  
136 1.0% 98%  
137 4% 97%  
138 2% 93%  
139 7% 91%  
140 4% 84%  
141 5% 80%  
142 14% 75%  
143 7% 61%  
144 10% 54% Median
145 5% 44%  
146 11% 39%  
147 4% 28%  
148 11% 24%  
149 4% 13%  
150 1.3% 9%  
151 3% 8%  
152 2% 5%  
153 1.4% 3%  
154 0.4% 2%  
155 0.8% 2%  
156 0.3% 0.7%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.2% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.3% 99.7%  
121 0.5% 99.4%  
122 0.9% 99.0%  
123 0.9% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 2% 95%  
126 4% 92%  
127 8% 88%  
128 9% 80%  
129 9% 72%  
130 6% 63%  
131 8% 56% Median
132 6% 49%  
133 13% 43%  
134 11% 30%  
135 4% 19%  
136 3% 15%  
137 3% 12%  
138 1.1% 9%  
139 4% 8%  
140 0.5% 4%  
141 1.0% 3%  
142 0.9% 2%  
143 0.7% 1.3%  
144 0.2% 0.6%  
145 0.2% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.5% 99.5%  
120 0.6% 99.0%  
121 1.3% 98%  
122 2% 97%  
123 3% 95%  
124 3% 92%  
125 2% 89%  
126 5% 87%  
127 9% 82%  
128 8% 72%  
129 4% 64%  
130 13% 60% Median
131 14% 47%  
132 8% 32%  
133 9% 25%  
134 4% 16%  
135 3% 11%  
136 1.5% 8%  
137 2% 7%  
138 3% 5%  
139 0.8% 3%  
140 1.0% 2%  
141 0.3% 1.0%  
142 0.3% 0.6%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.3% 99.7%  
107 0.7% 99.4%  
108 1.0% 98.7%  
109 1.5% 98%  
110 2% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 2% 92%  
113 7% 91%  
114 7% 83%  
115 8% 77%  
116 9% 68% Majority
117 14% 59% Median
118 9% 45%  
119 15% 35%  
120 4% 20%  
121 3% 17%  
122 4% 14%  
123 3% 10%  
124 2% 7%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 1.3% 3%  
128 0.2% 1.3%  
129 0.6% 1.2%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 0.8% 99.0%  
75 0.4% 98%  
76 2% 98%  
77 1.4% 96%  
78 2% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 4% 90%  
81 11% 86%  
82 5% 75%  
83 12% 69%  
84 3% 57% Median
85 9% 54%  
86 12% 46%  
87 12% 34%  
88 5% 22%  
89 3% 17%  
90 6% 14%  
91 3% 8%  
92 3% 6%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.4% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.8%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations