Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 4–7 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.7% 35.2–40.2% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.8%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 24.2% 22.1–26.5% 21.4–27.2% 20.9–27.7% 20.0–28.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 9.4% 8.0–11.1% 7.6–11.5% 7.3–12.0% 6.7–12.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.9% 7.6–10.5% 7.2–11.0% 6.9–11.4% 6.3–12.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.2% 6.1–8.8% 5.7–9.2% 5.4–9.6% 4.9–10.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 2.0–5.8%
Aliança 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–1.9% 0.6–2.1% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 108 100–115 98–117 96–119 93–123
Partido Social Democrata 89 66 59–74 57–76 55–77 53–81
CDS–Partido Popular 18 20 15–25 13–28 12–28 10–30
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 14–22 13–24 11–24 10–26
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 9–17 8–18 8–20 6–21
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 2–6 2–6 2–6 2–9
Aliança 0 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.2% 99.5%  
94 0.4% 99.3%  
95 0.6% 98.9%  
96 1.0% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 2% 96%  
99 2% 93%  
100 3% 91%  
101 3% 88%  
102 5% 84%  
103 5% 79%  
104 6% 75%  
105 5% 69%  
106 6% 64%  
107 7% 57%  
108 6% 51% Median
109 7% 45%  
110 6% 37%  
111 6% 31%  
112 4% 25%  
113 4% 20%  
114 4% 16%  
115 4% 12%  
116 3% 8% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 1.3% 4%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 0.8% 2%  
121 0.5% 1.3%  
122 0.2% 0.8%  
123 0.2% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.4%  
55 1.2% 98.5%  
56 1.1% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 2% 94%  
59 3% 92%  
60 4% 89%  
61 5% 86%  
62 5% 81%  
63 7% 76%  
64 7% 69%  
65 8% 61%  
66 5% 53% Median
67 6% 48%  
68 6% 43%  
69 6% 37%  
70 5% 31%  
71 6% 25%  
72 5% 19%  
73 3% 15%  
74 4% 11%  
75 2% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.1% 4%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.5% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 1.0% 99.5%  
12 2% 98%  
13 3% 97%  
14 1.3% 94%  
15 2% 92%  
16 3% 90%  
17 6% 87%  
18 12% 81% Last Result
19 17% 70%  
20 17% 53% Median
21 6% 36%  
22 6% 30%  
23 5% 24%  
24 4% 19%  
25 6% 15%  
26 0.9% 9%  
27 1.2% 8%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.7% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 2% 98%  
12 1.4% 96%  
13 3% 95%  
14 4% 92%  
15 7% 89%  
16 7% 81%  
17 17% 75%  
18 27% 58% Median
19 9% 30% Last Result
20 5% 21%  
21 4% 16%  
22 3% 12%  
23 4% 9%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.8% 1.3%  
26 0.2% 0.5%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 0.4% 99.7%  
7 1.4% 99.3%  
8 3% 98%  
9 6% 94%  
10 5% 88%  
11 5% 83%  
12 7% 78%  
13 14% 71%  
14 24% 57% Median
15 4% 34%  
16 5% 30%  
17 17% 25% Last Result
18 3% 8%  
19 2% 5%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 10% 99.7%  
3 20% 89%  
4 37% 69% Median
5 5% 32%  
6 25% 28%  
7 1.1% 2%  
8 0.7% 1.3%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 7%  
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 139 100% 131–146 129–149 128–150 124–154
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 125 95% 118–133 116–135 114–137 110–141
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 121 84% 113–129 111–131 109–133 106–137
Partido Socialista 86 108 8% 100–115 98–117 96–119 93–123
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 86 0% 79–94 77–96 75–98 72–101

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.7%  
124 0.3% 99.6%  
125 0.3% 99.3%  
126 0.6% 99.0%  
127 0.8% 98%  
128 1.2% 98%  
129 3% 96%  
130 2% 94%  
131 2% 92%  
132 2% 89%  
133 5% 87%  
134 5% 83%  
135 6% 78%  
136 6% 72%  
137 5% 67%  
138 7% 62%  
139 6% 55%  
140 7% 48% Median
141 6% 42%  
142 7% 35%  
143 5% 29%  
144 6% 24%  
145 4% 18%  
146 3% 13%  
147 3% 10%  
148 2% 7%  
149 1.3% 5%  
150 2% 4%  
151 1.0% 2%  
152 0.5% 2%  
153 0.4% 1.0%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.3% 99.5%  
112 0.5% 99.2%  
113 0.6% 98.7%  
114 1.0% 98%  
115 2% 97%  
116 2% 95% Majority
117 3% 93%  
118 3% 90%  
119 5% 87%  
120 4% 82%  
121 6% 77%  
122 5% 72%  
123 4% 67%  
124 7% 64%  
125 7% 57%  
126 7% 50% Median
127 6% 43%  
128 6% 37%  
129 5% 31%  
130 6% 25%  
131 6% 20%  
132 3% 13%  
133 2% 10%  
134 2% 8%  
135 1.2% 6%  
136 1.2% 5%  
137 1.1% 3%  
138 1.0% 2%  
139 0.5% 1.3%  
140 0.2% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.3% 99.2%  
108 0.6% 98.9%  
109 1.0% 98%  
110 0.9% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 92%  
114 3% 90%  
115 3% 87%  
116 5% 84% Majority
117 5% 79%  
118 5% 74%  
119 6% 69%  
120 5% 62%  
121 7% 57%  
122 5% 50% Median
123 9% 44%  
124 6% 35%  
125 6% 29%  
126 5% 23%  
127 4% 18%  
128 3% 14%  
129 3% 11%  
130 2% 8%  
131 1.4% 6%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.9% 3%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.2%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.2% 99.5%  
94 0.4% 99.3%  
95 0.6% 98.9%  
96 1.0% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 2% 96%  
99 2% 93%  
100 3% 91%  
101 3% 88%  
102 5% 84%  
103 5% 79%  
104 6% 75%  
105 5% 69%  
106 6% 64%  
107 7% 57%  
108 6% 51% Median
109 7% 45%  
110 6% 37%  
111 6% 31%  
112 4% 25%  
113 4% 20%  
114 4% 16%  
115 4% 12%  
116 3% 8% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 1.3% 4%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 0.8% 2%  
121 0.5% 1.3%  
122 0.2% 0.8%  
123 0.2% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.4% 99.3%  
74 0.6% 99.0%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 1.3% 97%  
77 1.3% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 3% 92%  
80 4% 89%  
81 5% 86%  
82 6% 81%  
83 6% 75%  
84 7% 69%  
85 7% 62%  
86 5% 55% Median
87 7% 50%  
88 5% 43%  
89 5% 37%  
90 6% 32%  
91 6% 26%  
92 4% 20%  
93 4% 16%  
94 3% 12%  
95 3% 9%  
96 2% 7%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.0% 3%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.2%  
101 0.3% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations