Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 2–9 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 40.0% 38.0–42.0% 37.5–42.6% 37.0–43.1% 36.1–44.0%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.5% 21.4–28.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.4–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
Aliança 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 114 109–121 108–123 106–125 104–128
Partido Social Democrata 89 69 63–75 61–76 59–77 57–79
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 11–18 10–18 10–18 9–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 12 9–18 8–18 8–19 7–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 10–17 9–17 9–18 7–20
Aliança 0 4 2–6 2–6 2–6 2–7
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 1 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.6%  
105 0.9% 99.3%  
106 1.2% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 4% 95%  
109 4% 92%  
110 5% 88%  
111 6% 83%  
112 11% 76%  
113 9% 65%  
114 11% 57% Median
115 9% 46%  
116 10% 37% Majority
117 7% 28%  
118 4% 20%  
119 4% 17%  
120 3% 13%  
121 2% 10%  
122 2% 8%  
123 1.5% 5%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 0.9% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.0%  
128 0.2% 0.7%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 0.7% 98.9%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 1.3% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 2% 91%  
64 4% 89%  
65 4% 85%  
66 5% 80%  
67 12% 75%  
68 7% 63%  
69 8% 56% Median
70 10% 48%  
71 9% 38%  
72 6% 29%  
73 8% 23%  
74 5% 15%  
75 4% 10%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 7% 98%  
11 6% 91%  
12 5% 85%  
13 12% 80%  
14 12% 68%  
15 14% 56% Median
16 10% 42%  
17 19% 32%  
18 11% 13%  
19 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.8%  
8 6% 99.1%  
9 5% 93%  
10 24% 88%  
11 9% 64%  
12 9% 55% Median
13 11% 45%  
14 14% 34%  
15 5% 21%  
16 3% 16%  
17 3% 13%  
18 6% 10% Last Result
19 4% 4%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 0.4% 99.6%  
8 0.7% 99.2%  
9 6% 98%  
10 4% 93%  
11 8% 89%  
12 8% 81%  
13 7% 73%  
14 37% 66% Median
15 7% 29%  
16 7% 22%  
17 11% 15% Last Result
18 3% 4%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 10% 77%  
4 23% 67% Median
5 11% 44%  
6 31% 33%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 49% 95% Last Result, Median
2 38% 46%  
3 7% 8%  
4 1.0% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 143 100% 137–149 135–151 134–153 131–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 129 99.9% 123–135 122–138 121–139 118–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 128 99.8% 122–134 121–136 119–138 117–141
Partido Socialista 86 114 37% 109–121 108–123 106–125 104–128
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 82 0% 75–87 73–89 71–90 68–93

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.3% 99.7%  
132 0.6% 99.4%  
133 1.0% 98.8%  
134 1.4% 98%  
135 2% 96%  
136 3% 95%  
137 6% 92%  
138 4% 86%  
139 7% 82%  
140 7% 74%  
141 7% 67%  
142 5% 60%  
143 12% 55% Median
144 7% 43%  
145 6% 35%  
146 7% 29%  
147 6% 22%  
148 5% 16%  
149 3% 11%  
150 2% 8%  
151 2% 6%  
152 1.4% 4%  
153 1.1% 3%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.2%  
156 0.5% 0.7%  
157 0.2% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.3% 99.6%  
119 0.5% 99.2%  
120 1.2% 98.7%  
121 2% 98%  
122 3% 96%  
123 4% 93%  
124 6% 89%  
125 8% 83%  
126 7% 76%  
127 7% 69%  
128 7% 62%  
129 10% 55% Median
130 7% 44%  
131 8% 38%  
132 7% 30%  
133 6% 23%  
134 5% 17%  
135 3% 12%  
136 2% 9%  
137 2% 7%  
138 1.4% 5%  
139 1.2% 4%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.8% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.0%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.8% Majority
117 0.5% 99.6%  
118 0.6% 99.0%  
119 1.3% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 2% 95%  
122 4% 93%  
123 5% 89%  
124 6% 84%  
125 6% 79%  
126 10% 73%  
127 9% 63%  
128 8% 55% Median
129 8% 47%  
130 11% 39%  
131 8% 29%  
132 5% 21%  
133 4% 16%  
134 3% 12%  
135 3% 9%  
136 2% 7%  
137 1.2% 4%  
138 1.4% 3%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.6% 1.3%  
141 0.3% 0.7%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.6%  
105 0.9% 99.3%  
106 1.2% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 4% 95%  
109 4% 92%  
110 5% 88%  
111 6% 83%  
112 11% 76%  
113 9% 65%  
114 11% 57% Median
115 9% 46%  
116 10% 37% Majority
117 7% 28%  
118 4% 20%  
119 4% 17%  
120 3% 13%  
121 2% 10%  
122 2% 8%  
123 1.5% 5%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 0.9% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.0%  
128 0.2% 0.7%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.5% 99.0%  
71 1.2% 98.6%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 3% 89%  
77 7% 85%  
78 4% 78%  
79 7% 74%  
80 8% 67%  
81 8% 59% Median
82 8% 51%  
83 9% 43%  
84 8% 34%  
85 6% 26%  
86 4% 19%  
87 6% 16%  
88 4% 10%  
89 3% 6%  
90 1.3% 4%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations