Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã, 5–10 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 36.4% 33.9–38.9% 33.2–39.7% 32.6–40.3% 31.5–41.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 24.4% 22.3–26.8% 21.7–27.4% 21.2–28.0% 20.1–29.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 9.3% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.5% 7.2–11.9% 6.6–12.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.0% 7.6–10.6% 7.3–11.1% 6.9–11.5% 6.3–12.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.3% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.2% 4.6–8.6% 4.1–9.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 2.5% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.1% 1.2–4.6%
Aliança 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 108 99–114 96–116 95–117 91–121
Partido Social Democrata 89 70 62–75 60–78 59–80 55–84
CDS–Partido Popular 18 20 17–25 13–28 13–29 11–30
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 14–23 13–24 12–25 10–27
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 12 8–17 7–17 6–18 5–19
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 2–4 1–4 1–6 1–6
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.4% 99.2%  
93 1.0% 98.9%  
94 0.2% 98%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 2% 95%  
98 2% 93%  
99 3% 91%  
100 2% 87%  
101 2% 86%  
102 1.2% 83%  
103 1.1% 82%  
104 5% 81%  
105 8% 76%  
106 5% 67%  
107 9% 63%  
108 4% 53% Median
109 8% 49%  
110 6% 41%  
111 12% 35%  
112 6% 23%  
113 3% 17%  
114 4% 14%  
115 4% 10%  
116 3% 6% Majority
117 1.1% 3%  
118 0.4% 2%  
119 0.1% 1.2%  
120 0.1% 1.1%  
121 0.5% 0.9%  
122 0.1% 0.5%  
123 0.1% 0.4%  
124 0.2% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 0.8% 98.9%  
58 0.2% 98%  
59 0.6% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 2% 95%  
62 6% 92%  
63 1.4% 86%  
64 4% 85%  
65 13% 81%  
66 8% 67%  
67 3% 60%  
68 5% 57%  
69 2% 52%  
70 11% 50% Median
71 6% 39%  
72 19% 33%  
73 2% 13%  
74 0.9% 12%  
75 0.8% 11%  
76 2% 10%  
77 1.2% 8%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.3% 2%  
82 0.3% 2%  
83 0.2% 1.3%  
84 0.6% 1.1%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 0.9% 99.7%  
12 1.0% 98.8%  
13 3% 98%  
14 0.7% 94%  
15 0.4% 94%  
16 1.2% 93%  
17 6% 92%  
18 15% 86% Last Result
19 18% 71%  
20 19% 53% Median
21 10% 35%  
22 3% 25%  
23 3% 22%  
24 9% 19%  
25 3% 11%  
26 1.4% 8%  
27 1.2% 7%  
28 2% 5%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.4% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 0.9% 99.5%  
12 2% 98.6%  
13 2% 97%  
14 8% 95%  
15 7% 87%  
16 8% 80%  
17 14% 72%  
18 29% 59% Median
19 8% 29% Last Result
20 4% 22%  
21 2% 17%  
22 2% 15%  
23 5% 13%  
24 5% 8%  
25 1.3% 3%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.8%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.3% 100%  
6 2% 98.7%  
7 4% 97%  
8 6% 93%  
9 13% 87%  
10 5% 74%  
11 5% 69%  
12 22% 63% Median
13 6% 41%  
14 18% 35%  
15 5% 17%  
16 0.7% 12%  
17 8% 11% Last Result
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 7% 99.7% Last Result
2 39% 93%  
3 31% 53% Median
4 17% 22%  
5 0.7% 5%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 48%  
2 44% 45%  
3 0.4% 0.8%  
4 0.3% 0.4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 137 100% 130–144 128–146 125–148 120–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 125 95% 119–132 116–133 114–136 109–141
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 120 80% 110–126 107–127 106–129 101–133
Partido Socialista 86 108 6% 99–114 96–116 95–117 91–121
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 89 0% 82–96 81–99 78–102 75–106

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.6%  
121 0.2% 99.5%  
122 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
123 0.6% 99.1%  
124 0.9% 98.5%  
125 0.7% 98%  
126 0.6% 97%  
127 1.0% 96%  
128 2% 95%  
129 2% 93%  
130 2% 91%  
131 1.5% 89%  
132 2% 88%  
133 11% 86%  
134 10% 74%  
135 2% 65%  
136 4% 62%  
137 9% 58%  
138 7% 49% Median
139 6% 42%  
140 3% 36%  
141 3% 33%  
142 2% 31%  
143 9% 28%  
144 13% 19%  
145 0.8% 6%  
146 0.6% 5%  
147 1.2% 4%  
148 1.5% 3%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.1% 1.2%  
151 0.3% 1.1%  
152 0.4% 0.8%  
153 0.2% 0.4%  
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.2% 99.5%  
111 0.1% 99.3%  
112 0.5% 99.2%  
113 0.5% 98.7%  
114 1.4% 98%  
115 2% 97%  
116 1.3% 95% Majority
117 0.9% 94%  
118 3% 93%  
119 3% 90%  
120 2% 87%  
121 8% 86%  
122 9% 78%  
123 4% 69%  
124 7% 65%  
125 11% 57%  
126 3% 47% Median
127 5% 43%  
128 6% 39%  
129 6% 33%  
130 11% 27%  
131 3% 16%  
132 5% 13%  
133 3% 8%  
134 0.9% 5%  
135 1.4% 4%  
136 1.1% 3%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 0.2% 1.3%  
139 0.2% 1.1%  
140 0.1% 0.9%  
141 0.3% 0.8%  
142 0.2% 0.5%  
143 0.2% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.2% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.5%  
102 0.3% 99.2%  
103 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
104 0.4% 98.6%  
105 0.3% 98%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 0.8% 95%  
109 1.2% 94%  
110 4% 93%  
111 3% 89%  
112 0.9% 86%  
113 1.0% 85%  
114 1.0% 84%  
115 3% 83%  
116 6% 80% Majority
117 9% 74%  
118 8% 65%  
119 5% 57%  
120 3% 52% Median
121 6% 48%  
122 2% 42%  
123 7% 40%  
124 8% 33%  
125 8% 25%  
126 10% 17%  
127 2% 7%  
128 2% 4%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.4%  
132 0.6% 1.1%  
133 0.3% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.4% 99.2%  
93 1.0% 98.9%  
94 0.2% 98%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 2% 95%  
98 2% 93%  
99 3% 91%  
100 2% 87%  
101 2% 86%  
102 1.2% 83%  
103 1.1% 82%  
104 5% 81%  
105 8% 76%  
106 5% 67%  
107 9% 63%  
108 4% 53% Median
109 8% 49%  
110 6% 41%  
111 12% 35%  
112 6% 23%  
113 3% 17%  
114 4% 14%  
115 4% 10%  
116 3% 6% Majority
117 1.1% 3%  
118 0.4% 2%  
119 0.1% 1.2%  
120 0.1% 1.1%  
121 0.5% 0.9%  
122 0.1% 0.5%  
123 0.1% 0.4%  
124 0.2% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.7% 99.5%  
77 0.8% 98.8%  
78 1.0% 98%  
79 0.6% 97%  
80 0.8% 96%  
81 5% 95%  
82 6% 90%  
83 8% 84%  
84 3% 76%  
85 5% 73%  
86 2% 68%  
87 3% 66%  
88 8% 63%  
89 11% 54%  
90 2% 43% Median
91 7% 41%  
92 9% 34%  
93 9% 25%  
94 3% 16%  
95 2% 13%  
96 2% 11%  
97 3% 10%  
98 1.2% 7%  
99 2% 6%  
100 0.5% 3%  
101 0.3% 3%  
102 0.7% 3%  
103 0.4% 2%  
104 0.9% 1.5%  
105 0% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.6%  
107 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations