Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 10–14 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.3% 35.3–39.2% 34.8–39.8% 34.3–40.3% 33.4–41.2%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.2–10.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Aliança 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 2.4% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 107 102–113 100–114 99–116 96–119
Partido Social Democrata 89 71 65–76 63–78 63–79 60–82
CDS–Partido Popular 18 18 13–20 13–21 12–22 10–25
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 12–18 11–19 10–21 10–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 10–17 9–17 9–18 7–20
Aliança 0 2 2–5 2–6 2–6 2–6
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 1.1% 99.4%  
98 0.6% 98%  
99 1.3% 98%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 5% 92%  
103 2% 87%  
104 11% 85%  
105 12% 74%  
106 6% 62%  
107 10% 56% Median
108 8% 46%  
109 7% 38%  
110 7% 31%  
111 5% 24%  
112 8% 19%  
113 6% 12%  
114 1.1% 6%  
115 2% 5%  
116 1.2% 3% Majority
117 0.2% 1.3%  
118 0.6% 1.1%  
119 0.2% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.7%  
61 0.8% 99.4%  
62 0.7% 98.5%  
63 3% 98%  
64 4% 95%  
65 7% 91%  
66 6% 84%  
67 6% 77%  
68 2% 71%  
69 8% 69%  
70 7% 61%  
71 15% 54% Median
72 10% 40%  
73 2% 29%  
74 8% 27%  
75 8% 19%  
76 4% 11%  
77 1.3% 7%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.5% 1.2%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.9%  
11 1.2% 99.0%  
12 2% 98%  
13 8% 96%  
14 14% 89%  
15 4% 75%  
16 8% 71%  
17 5% 63%  
18 11% 58% Last Result, Median
19 20% 47%  
20 19% 28%  
21 4% 8%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 0.8% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.8%  
26 0% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 4% 96%  
12 3% 92%  
13 6% 90%  
14 10% 84%  
15 8% 74%  
16 9% 66%  
17 21% 57% Median
18 30% 37%  
19 2% 6% Last Result
20 0.9% 4%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.9% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.6%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 0.8% 99.3%  
9 7% 98.5%  
10 5% 92%  
11 8% 86%  
12 12% 79%  
13 9% 66%  
14 29% 58% Median
15 4% 29%  
16 7% 24%  
17 14% 18% Last Result
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.9%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 99.7%  
2 55% 99.6% Median
3 9% 44%  
4 22% 35%  
5 5% 12%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 13% 99.6% Last Result
2 55% 87% Median
3 26% 32%  
4 6% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.4%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 137 100% 131–143 130–144 128–146 125–149
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 123 96% 117–130 116–131 115–132 112–135
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 121 91% 116–126 114–128 112–129 108–132
Partido Socialista 86 107 3% 102–113 100–114 99–116 96–119
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 88 0% 82–94 80–95 79–97 77–100

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.2% 99.8%  
125 0.2% 99.6%  
126 0.6% 99.5%  
127 0.8% 98.9%  
128 1.0% 98%  
129 1.3% 97%  
130 2% 96%  
131 6% 93%  
132 2% 87%  
133 7% 85%  
134 13% 78%  
135 4% 66%  
136 10% 61%  
137 6% 51%  
138 5% 45% Median
139 13% 40%  
140 5% 27%  
141 7% 22%  
142 2% 15%  
143 6% 13%  
144 2% 7%  
145 2% 5%  
146 0.9% 3%  
147 1.2% 2%  
148 0.4% 0.9%  
149 0.3% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.9%  
112 0.5% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.2%  
114 0.8% 98.9%  
115 2% 98%  
116 1.0% 96% Majority
117 5% 95%  
118 2% 90%  
119 7% 87%  
120 8% 80%  
121 7% 72%  
122 12% 66%  
123 4% 53%  
124 6% 49% Median
125 14% 43%  
126 5% 28%  
127 6% 24%  
128 2% 18%  
129 3% 15%  
130 5% 12%  
131 3% 7%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 1.4% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.0%  
135 0.4% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.3% 99.7%  
109 0.7% 99.4%  
110 0.4% 98.8%  
111 0.6% 98%  
112 0.8% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 1.5% 95%  
115 3% 94%  
116 4% 91% Majority
117 9% 86%  
118 8% 78%  
119 9% 70%  
120 5% 61%  
121 14% 56% Median
122 11% 42%  
123 5% 31%  
124 7% 26%  
125 6% 20%  
126 5% 14%  
127 2% 9%  
128 2% 7%  
129 2% 5%  
130 1.1% 2%  
131 0.2% 1.4%  
132 0.7% 1.1%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 1.1% 99.4%  
98 0.6% 98%  
99 1.3% 98%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 5% 92%  
103 2% 87%  
104 11% 85%  
105 12% 74%  
106 6% 62%  
107 10% 56% Median
108 8% 46%  
109 7% 38%  
110 7% 31%  
111 5% 24%  
112 8% 19%  
113 6% 12%  
114 1.1% 6%  
115 2% 5%  
116 1.2% 3% Majority
117 0.2% 1.3%  
118 0.6% 1.1%  
119 0.2% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.3% 99.6%  
78 2% 99.3%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 95%  
82 3% 91%  
83 6% 89%  
84 6% 83%  
85 11% 77%  
86 8% 66%  
87 3% 58%  
88 10% 55%  
89 5% 45% Median
90 9% 40%  
91 11% 31%  
92 5% 20%  
93 5% 15%  
94 4% 10%  
95 3% 7%  
96 0.9% 3%  
97 0.9% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.1%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations