Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 30 March–1 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 34.6% | 32.1–37.1% | 31.4–37.8% | 30.8–38.5% | 29.7–39.7% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 27.2% | 25.0–29.7% | 24.4–30.3% | 23.8–30.9% | 22.8–32.1% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.8–10.6% | 6.5–11.0% | 5.9–11.8% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 8.5% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.8–10.6% | 6.5–11.0% | 5.9–11.8% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.2–9.3% | 4.7–10.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 101 | 93–109 | 91–112 | 89–114 | 85–117 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 79 | 72–88 | 70–90 | 68–92 | 65–95 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 18 | 13–23 | 12–24 | 11–24 | 10–26 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 18 | 13–23 | 11–24 | 10–25 | 10–28 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 14 | 9–17 | 9–19 | 8–20 | 6–21 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 2% | 94% | |
| 93 | 3% | 91% | |
| 94 | 3% | 89% | |
| 95 | 5% | 85% | |
| 96 | 4% | 81% | |
| 97 | 4% | 77% | |
| 98 | 6% | 73% | |
| 99 | 5% | 67% | |
| 100 | 8% | 62% | |
| 101 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 102 | 7% | 48% | |
| 103 | 6% | 41% | |
| 104 | 4% | 35% | |
| 105 | 5% | 31% | |
| 106 | 5% | 27% | |
| 107 | 6% | 22% | |
| 108 | 4% | 16% | |
| 109 | 3% | 12% | |
| 110 | 3% | 9% | |
| 111 | 2% | 7% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 70 | 2% | 95% | |
| 71 | 2% | 94% | |
| 72 | 3% | 91% | |
| 73 | 6% | 89% | |
| 74 | 6% | 83% | |
| 75 | 6% | 76% | |
| 76 | 5% | 71% | |
| 77 | 5% | 66% | |
| 78 | 6% | 60% | |
| 79 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 80 | 7% | 50% | |
| 81 | 5% | 43% | |
| 82 | 7% | 37% | |
| 83 | 5% | 30% | |
| 84 | 4% | 24% | |
| 85 | 3% | 20% | |
| 86 | 4% | 17% | |
| 87 | 3% | 13% | |
| 88 | 3% | 11% | |
| 89 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 90 | 2% | 6% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 12 | 4% | 97% | |
| 13 | 3% | 93% | |
| 14 | 6% | 90% | |
| 15 | 6% | 84% | |
| 16 | 7% | 78% | |
| 17 | 8% | 72% | |
| 18 | 42% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 4% | 22% | Last Result |
| 20 | 3% | 18% | |
| 21 | 2% | 15% | |
| 22 | 3% | 13% | |
| 23 | 5% | 10% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 2% | 97% | |
| 12 | 3% | 95% | |
| 13 | 5% | 92% | |
| 14 | 5% | 86% | |
| 15 | 7% | 82% | |
| 16 | 9% | 74% | |
| 17 | 9% | 65% | |
| 18 | 9% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 19 | 10% | 47% | |
| 20 | 12% | 37% | |
| 21 | 11% | 25% | |
| 22 | 4% | 15% | |
| 23 | 4% | 11% | |
| 24 | 3% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 2% | 98% | |
| 9 | 6% | 96% | |
| 10 | 11% | 90% | |
| 11 | 7% | 79% | |
| 12 | 9% | 72% | |
| 13 | 9% | 63% | |
| 14 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 15 | 5% | 43% | |
| 16 | 10% | 38% | |
| 17 | 21% | 28% | Last Result |
| 18 | 2% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 133 | 99.7% | 124–141 | 122–143 | 120–145 | 116–149 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 119 | 71% | 111–127 | 108–129 | 106–131 | 102–135 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 115 | 48% | 106–123 | 104–125 | 102–127 | 99–131 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 101 | 1.0% | 93–109 | 91–112 | 89–114 | 85–117 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 97 | 0.2% | 89–106 | 87–108 | 85–110 | 81–114 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 123 | 2% | 93% | |
| 124 | 2% | 91% | |
| 125 | 3% | 89% | |
| 126 | 4% | 86% | |
| 127 | 4% | 82% | |
| 128 | 5% | 79% | |
| 129 | 4% | 74% | |
| 130 | 6% | 70% | |
| 131 | 5% | 64% | |
| 132 | 7% | 59% | |
| 133 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 134 | 5% | 45% | |
| 135 | 5% | 41% | |
| 136 | 6% | 36% | |
| 137 | 7% | 30% | |
| 138 | 5% | 22% | |
| 139 | 4% | 17% | |
| 140 | 3% | 13% | |
| 141 | 2% | 10% | |
| 142 | 2% | 8% | |
| 143 | 2% | 6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 109 | 2% | 95% | |
| 110 | 2% | 93% | |
| 111 | 2% | 91% | |
| 112 | 4% | 88% | |
| 113 | 4% | 85% | |
| 114 | 4% | 81% | |
| 115 | 5% | 76% | |
| 116 | 6% | 71% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 65% | |
| 118 | 6% | 60% | |
| 119 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 120 | 8% | 47% | |
| 121 | 6% | 39% | |
| 122 | 4% | 33% | |
| 123 | 5% | 29% | |
| 124 | 5% | 24% | |
| 125 | 5% | 18% | |
| 126 | 3% | 14% | |
| 127 | 3% | 10% | |
| 128 | 2% | 8% | |
| 129 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 104 | 2% | 95% | |
| 105 | 2% | 93% | |
| 106 | 2% | 91% | |
| 107 | 3% | 88% | |
| 108 | 3% | 86% | |
| 109 | 3% | 83% | |
| 110 | 4% | 79% | |
| 111 | 4% | 75% | |
| 112 | 5% | 71% | |
| 113 | 5% | 66% | |
| 114 | 6% | 61% | |
| 115 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 116 | 5% | 48% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 43% | |
| 118 | 6% | 38% | |
| 119 | 7% | 32% | |
| 120 | 5% | 25% | |
| 121 | 4% | 20% | |
| 122 | 3% | 16% | |
| 123 | 3% | 13% | |
| 124 | 3% | 10% | |
| 125 | 2% | 7% | |
| 126 | 2% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 2% | 94% | |
| 93 | 3% | 91% | |
| 94 | 3% | 89% | |
| 95 | 5% | 85% | |
| 96 | 4% | 81% | |
| 97 | 4% | 77% | |
| 98 | 6% | 73% | |
| 99 | 5% | 67% | |
| 100 | 8% | 62% | |
| 101 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 102 | 7% | 48% | |
| 103 | 6% | 41% | |
| 104 | 4% | 35% | |
| 105 | 5% | 31% | |
| 106 | 5% | 27% | |
| 107 | 6% | 22% | |
| 108 | 4% | 16% | |
| 109 | 3% | 12% | |
| 110 | 3% | 9% | |
| 111 | 2% | 7% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 86 | 2% | 97% | |
| 87 | 2% | 96% | |
| 88 | 2% | 94% | |
| 89 | 2% | 92% | |
| 90 | 3% | 90% | |
| 91 | 4% | 87% | |
| 92 | 5% | 83% | |
| 93 | 7% | 78% | |
| 94 | 6% | 70% | |
| 95 | 5% | 64% | |
| 96 | 5% | 59% | |
| 97 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 98 | 7% | 48% | |
| 99 | 5% | 41% | |
| 100 | 6% | 36% | |
| 101 | 4% | 30% | |
| 102 | 5% | 26% | |
| 103 | 4% | 21% | |
| 104 | 4% | 18% | |
| 105 | 3% | 14% | |
| 106 | 2% | 11% | |
| 107 | 2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 108 | 2% | 7% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã and Negócios
- Fieldwork period: 30 March–1 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 602
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%