Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 7–11 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 36.9% 35.0–38.9% 34.4–39.4% 34.0–39.9% 33.1–40.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.9–27.3% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 8.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 7.8% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
Aliança 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 2.5% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.4–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 107 101–113 99–114 98–115 95–118
Partido Social Democrata 89 70 64–76 64–77 63–78 60–82
CDS–Partido Popular 18 18 13–20 12–21 11–23 10–25
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 11–18 10–18 10–18 9–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 11–17 10–17 9–18 8–20
Aliança 0 3 2–6 2–6 2–6 2–6
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 2 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–6

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 0.5% 99.5%  
97 0.7% 99.0%  
98 2% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 3% 95%  
101 2% 91%  
102 4% 89%  
103 6% 86%  
104 6% 79%  
105 9% 73%  
106 9% 64%  
107 8% 55% Median
108 8% 47%  
109 7% 39%  
110 9% 32%  
111 7% 23%  
112 5% 17%  
113 4% 11%  
114 3% 7%  
115 2% 4%  
116 1.1% 2% Majority
117 0.6% 1.3%  
118 0.4% 0.7%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.6% 99.3%  
62 1.1% 98.8%  
63 2% 98%  
64 6% 96%  
65 3% 90%  
66 3% 86%  
67 7% 83%  
68 9% 76%  
69 12% 68%  
70 9% 56% Median
71 6% 47%  
72 8% 41%  
73 8% 32%  
74 7% 24%  
75 4% 17%  
76 6% 14%  
77 3% 8%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.4% 1.5%  
81 0.4% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.5% 99.8%  
11 1.1% 98%  
12 3% 97%  
13 8% 95%  
14 8% 87%  
15 7% 79%  
16 5% 72%  
17 7% 67%  
18 17% 59% Last Result, Median
19 17% 43%  
20 18% 26%  
21 3% 8%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.0% 3%  
24 1.0% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.8%  
26 0% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.9%  
10 5% 98.8%  
11 5% 94%  
12 6% 89%  
13 9% 84%  
14 12% 75%  
15 17% 63% Median
16 10% 46%  
17 18% 35%  
18 15% 18%  
19 1.2% 2% Last Result
20 0.5% 1.3%  
21 0.3% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.7%  
9 3% 99.3%  
10 3% 96%  
11 9% 93%  
12 6% 84%  
13 10% 78%  
14 29% 68% Median
15 8% 39%  
16 9% 31%  
17 18% 22% Last Result
18 3% 5%  
19 0.8% 2%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 44% 99.8%  
3 14% 55% Median
4 20% 42%  
5 8% 22%  
6 14% 14%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 9% 99.9% Last Result
2 48% 91% Median
3 31% 43%  
4 11% 12%  
5 0.3% 1.0%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 137 100% 131–142 129–144 128–146 124–148
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 122 94% 116–128 115–130 113–131 111–134
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 121 90% 115–127 114–129 112–130 109–133
Partido Socialista 86 107 2% 101–113 99–114 98–115 95–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 88 0% 82–94 80–95 79–96 76–100

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.4% 99.5%  
126 0.5% 99.1%  
127 0.7% 98.6%  
128 2% 98%  
129 2% 96%  
130 4% 94%  
131 5% 91%  
132 6% 85%  
133 8% 79%  
134 7% 71%  
135 6% 64%  
136 8% 58% Median
137 9% 50%  
138 10% 42%  
139 8% 31%  
140 6% 23%  
141 4% 17%  
142 4% 13%  
143 2% 9%  
144 2% 6%  
145 2% 4%  
146 0.9% 3%  
147 0.9% 2%  
148 0.4% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.5% 99.5%  
112 0.7% 99.1%  
113 1.1% 98%  
114 1.3% 97%  
115 2% 96%  
116 4% 94% Majority
117 5% 89%  
118 6% 84%  
119 6% 78%  
120 8% 72%  
121 7% 64%  
122 9% 57% Median
123 10% 48%  
124 7% 38%  
125 10% 32%  
126 6% 21%  
127 3% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 3% 9%  
130 3% 7%  
131 2% 4%  
132 1.1% 2%  
133 0.6% 1.1%  
134 0.2% 0.6%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.5%  
110 0.6% 99.3%  
111 0.5% 98.6%  
112 1.0% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 3% 95%  
115 3% 92%  
116 5% 90% Majority
117 6% 85%  
118 7% 80%  
119 9% 73%  
120 6% 64%  
121 9% 58% Median
122 9% 49%  
123 9% 40%  
124 8% 31%  
125 5% 23%  
126 4% 18%  
127 5% 14%  
128 3% 9%  
129 3% 6%  
130 1.1% 3%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.5% 1.1%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 0.5% 99.5%  
97 0.7% 99.0%  
98 2% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 3% 95%  
101 2% 91%  
102 4% 89%  
103 6% 86%  
104 6% 79%  
105 9% 73%  
106 9% 64%  
107 8% 55% Median
108 8% 47%  
109 7% 39%  
110 9% 32%  
111 7% 23%  
112 5% 17%  
113 4% 11%  
114 3% 7%  
115 2% 4%  
116 1.1% 2% Majority
117 0.6% 1.3%  
118 0.4% 0.7%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.5% 99.4%  
78 0.8% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 94%  
82 5% 92%  
83 4% 87%  
84 5% 83%  
85 6% 78%  
86 9% 72%  
87 12% 63%  
88 8% 51% Median
89 8% 43%  
90 7% 34%  
91 5% 27%  
92 6% 22%  
93 5% 17%  
94 5% 11%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.3% 3%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 0.9%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations