Opinion Poll by Pitagórica, 3–13 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.2% 34.7–39.8% 34.0–40.5% 33.4–41.1% 32.3–42.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 25.6% 23.4–28.0% 22.8–28.7% 22.3–29.2% 21.3–30.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.3% 7.0–9.9% 6.6–10.3% 6.3–10.7% 5.8–11.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.4% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.3% 4.8–8.7% 4.3–9.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.4% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.3% 4.8–8.7% 4.3–9.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 2.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2% 1.8–4.5% 1.5–5.0%
Aliança 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.2% 0.8–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 111 103–117 101–120 98–122 95–127
Partido Social Democrata 89 75 67–81 65–84 63–86 60–90
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 13–21 11–23 10–24 9–25
CDS–Partido Popular 18 11 8–16 6–19 6–19 6–20
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 8–17 7–17 6–18 5–20
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 2–6 2–6 1–6 1–7
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.2% 99.5%  
96 0.4% 99.3%  
97 0.4% 98.9%  
98 1.0% 98%  
99 0.9% 97%  
100 2% 97%  
101 2% 95%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 91%  
104 4% 88%  
105 4% 84%  
106 5% 80%  
107 5% 75%  
108 7% 70%  
109 7% 64%  
110 7% 57%  
111 7% 50% Median
112 7% 43%  
113 5% 36%  
114 6% 31%  
115 6% 25%  
116 6% 19% Majority
117 4% 13%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 0.9% 5%  
121 1.3% 5%  
122 1.2% 3%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.3% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.3%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 0.6% 99.1%  
62 0.6% 98.6%  
63 0.6% 98%  
64 1.1% 97%  
65 2% 96%  
66 2% 94%  
67 3% 92%  
68 4% 89%  
69 3% 85%  
70 5% 82%  
71 4% 77%  
72 4% 73%  
73 8% 69%  
74 11% 61%  
75 8% 50% Median
76 7% 42%  
77 7% 35%  
78 6% 28%  
79 6% 22%  
80 3% 17%  
81 4% 14%  
82 2% 10%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.1% 4%  
86 0.6% 3%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
90 0.2% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.3%  
11 2% 97%  
12 2% 94%  
13 5% 92%  
14 6% 88%  
15 9% 82%  
16 7% 73%  
17 18% 66% Median
18 24% 48%  
19 7% 23% Last Result
20 5% 17%  
21 2% 12%  
22 2% 10%  
23 3% 8%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.4% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 3% 94%  
8 11% 91%  
9 9% 80%  
10 16% 71%  
11 11% 55% Median
12 11% 44%  
13 12% 33%  
14 6% 21%  
15 3% 15%  
16 3% 12%  
17 2% 9%  
18 2% 7% Last Result
19 3% 5%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 2% 98.8%  
7 4% 96%  
8 5% 93%  
9 15% 88%  
10 6% 73%  
11 7% 67%  
12 8% 61%  
13 9% 53% Median
14 21% 44%  
15 6% 22%  
16 4% 16%  
17 7% 12% Last Result
18 2% 5%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.6% 1.0%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 4% 99.9% Last Result
2 25% 96%  
3 28% 71% Median
4 29% 43%  
5 3% 14%  
6 10% 11%  
7 0.3% 0.7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 44%  
2 36% 38%  
3 0.7% 2%  
4 0.6% 0.8%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 140 100% 132–147 130–150 128–152 124–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 128 98% 120–135 118–137 116–140 112–144
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 123 89% 115–130 113–133 111–135 106–139
Partido Socialista 86 111 19% 103–117 101–120 98–122 95–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 86 0% 78–93 76–96 74–98 70–102

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.2% 99.5%  
125 0.4% 99.3%  
126 0.6% 98.9%  
127 0.7% 98%  
128 0.8% 98%  
129 1.1% 97%  
130 2% 96%  
131 2% 94%  
132 2% 92%  
133 3% 90%  
134 4% 86%  
135 5% 83%  
136 5% 78%  
137 6% 73%  
138 6% 67%  
139 8% 60%  
140 8% 52%  
141 5% 44% Median
142 6% 39%  
143 8% 33%  
144 5% 25%  
145 3% 21%  
146 4% 17%  
147 4% 13%  
148 3% 10%  
149 2% 7%  
150 1.1% 5%  
151 1.3% 4%  
152 0.7% 3%  
153 0.5% 2%  
154 0.6% 1.5%  
155 0.3% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.2% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.3% 99.6%  
113 0.4% 99.3%  
114 0.4% 98.9%  
115 0.6% 98%  
116 1.3% 98% Majority
117 1.3% 97%  
118 2% 95%  
119 2% 93%  
120 3% 91%  
121 4% 88%  
122 5% 84%  
123 5% 79%  
124 4% 74%  
125 5% 70%  
126 6% 64%  
127 7% 59%  
128 5% 52% Median
129 10% 47%  
130 9% 38%  
131 4% 28%  
132 4% 24%  
133 5% 20%  
134 4% 15%  
135 3% 11%  
136 2% 8%  
137 2% 6%  
138 1.2% 5%  
139 1.0% 4%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 0.4% 2%  
142 0.3% 1.3%  
143 0.3% 1.0%  
144 0.2% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.5%  
108 0.4% 99.1%  
109 0.5% 98.7%  
110 0.7% 98%  
111 1.4% 98%  
112 1.0% 96%  
113 2% 95%  
114 2% 93%  
115 2% 91%  
116 3% 89% Majority
117 4% 86%  
118 6% 82%  
119 5% 76%  
120 6% 71%  
121 7% 65%  
122 8% 58%  
123 6% 50%  
124 6% 44% Median
125 6% 39%  
126 7% 33%  
127 4% 26%  
128 4% 21%  
129 4% 17%  
130 4% 13%  
131 3% 9%  
132 1.4% 7%  
133 1.3% 5%  
134 0.9% 4%  
135 1.2% 3%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.3% 1.1%  
138 0.2% 0.8%  
139 0.2% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.2% 99.5%  
96 0.4% 99.3%  
97 0.4% 98.9%  
98 1.0% 98%  
99 0.9% 97%  
100 2% 97%  
101 2% 95%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 91%  
104 4% 88%  
105 4% 84%  
106 5% 80%  
107 5% 75%  
108 7% 70%  
109 7% 64%  
110 7% 57%  
111 7% 50% Median
112 7% 43%  
113 5% 36%  
114 6% 31%  
115 6% 25%  
116 6% 19% Majority
117 4% 13%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 0.9% 5%  
121 1.3% 5%  
122 1.2% 3%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.3% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.3%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.5% 99.0%  
73 0.6% 98.5%  
74 0.7% 98%  
75 0.7% 97%  
76 2% 97%  
77 2% 95%  
78 3% 93%  
79 2% 90%  
80 6% 87%  
81 4% 82%  
82 6% 78%  
83 4% 72%  
84 6% 68%  
85 8% 62%  
86 7% 54% Median
87 8% 47%  
88 9% 39%  
89 5% 30%  
90 4% 25%  
91 4% 21%  
92 4% 17%  
93 3% 13%  
94 2% 10%  
95 2% 7%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.1% 4%  
98 0.5% 3%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.5%  
101 0.3% 1.1%  
102 0.4% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations